Carbon storage response to land use changes under multi-scenario simulations in the Jinan Metropolitan area, in China

The most extensive carbon reservoir system on Earth is found in the vegetation and soil in terrestrial ecosystems, which are essential to preserving the stability of ecosystems. Land use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in terrestrial ecosystems significantly impact carbon storage (CS). Therefore, it is imperative to investigate the relationship between LUCC and CS to coordinate regional ecological conservation and industrial development. In this study, the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in land use and CS in the Yanqi Basin from 2000 to 2020 were revealed using the PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model and the CS module of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model. This study also predicted the spatial and temporal evolution of CS and the response mechanism of the Yanqi Basin from four scenarios—natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050. This study shows the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the Yanqi Basin witnessed an expansion in cropland and construction land, the order of the land use dynamic degree which is as follows: construction land > cropland > woodland > unused land > water > grassland. At the same time, the CS exhibited a trend of growth that was followed by a decline, a cumulative decrease of 3.61 Tg. (2) Between 2020 and 2050, woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased under the NDS and UDS. Meanwhile, grassland and woodland showed an expanding trend, and there was a decrease in cropland and construction land under the EPS; the CPS projected an increase in cropland to 3258.06 km2 by 2050. (3) CS under the UDS is always the lowest, and CS under the EPS is the highest; moreover, by 2050, CS under the EPS is projected to increase by 1.18 Tg compared with that under the UDS. The spatial distribution of CS shows a high value in the western part of the region and a low value in the eastern part of the region, which is more in line with the historical spatial distribution. (4) The development of land by human activities is one of the major factors leading to the change of CS. The direct cause of the decrease in CS is the transformation of large areas of cropland and woodland into construction land. Therefore, woodlands must be protected to improve CS and prevent ecological degradation. At the same time, future land use planning in the Yanqi Basin needs to limit the conversion rate of various types of land, control the construction land, optimize the urban pattern, improve the regional CS level, adhere to the concept of striving to achieve carbon neutrality, and realize the sustainable development of the region to provide scientific suggestions for carrying out macro-decision making regarding land use planning in arid areas.

The role of land use change in affecting ecosystem services and the ecological security pattern of the Hexi Regions, Northwest China

To optimize land use and achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, this study investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of land use and carbon storage in the Jinan metropolitan area from 2010 to 2030. Using land use data from 2010, 2015, and 2020, the PLUS model was employed to simulate land use patterns for 2030 under four development scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, cropland land protection, and urban development. The InVEST model was then used to calculate carbon storage under these scenarios. The study presented that: ① Between 2010 and 2020, the most significant reduction was in cropland, with a decrease of 3.34%, while the most significant increase was in construction land, with an increase of 3.13%. By 2030, cropland and grassland are anticipated to contract across scenarios, while forestland, water bodies, and construction land are projected to show variable expansion. ② The total carbon storage showed a decreasing trend. In 2030, carbon storage increased only under the ecological protection scenario, with an increase of 873 015.30 tons, while other scenarios exhibited varying degrees of decrease. Mount Tai and the Yimeng Mountains were significant carbon sinks in the Jinan metropolitan area; in contrast, the urban area of Jinan, as well as the Zhangqiu district and Zichuan district of Zibo, were the primary areas of carbon storage loss. ③ Drivers influencing land-use change also indirectly affected carbon storage. Socioeconomic and transportation factors promoted the conversion of high carbon density land to low carbon density land, thereby reducing the total regional carbon storage. Conversely, climatic and natural factors, by limiting such conversions, had a significant positive impact on carbon storage conservation.

Impact of land use change on carbon storage based on the PLUS–InVEST model: A case study in the urban belt along the Yellow River, China

Under the vision of the ‘dual-carbon’ goal, land-use changes and their impact on carbon stocks are studied,to providing a reference for regional carbon balance. Taking the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi as an example, based on the data on land use and carbon density, the PLUS and InVEST models were applied to analyze the pattern of land use change from 1980 to 2020, simulate the spatial pattern of land use under three scenarios in 2030, and assess the carbon stock and its spatial and temporal change characteristics during the 50 years. The results show that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the land use type of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone was dominated by forest land, but the construction land continued to expand, and a large number of other land types were occupied. The formation of a changing trend of "one increase, many decreases" in which construction land increases and other land types decrease. (2) The carbon storage in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is dominated by forest land, followed by cultivated land. (3) In 2030, there are differences in carbon storage under different development scenarios, and the transformation of land use types related to forest land and construction land dominates the change of carbon storage, and the carbon storage under the natural development scenario and cultivated land protection scenario will decrease to varying degrees, and only the carbon storage will increase under the ecological protection scenario. In 2030, the carbon storage in the ecological protection scenario will be 12.6916 × 108t, an increase of 0.0936 × 108t or 0.7429% compared with 2020. (4) In the past 50 years, the large expansion of construction land in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone has led to a downward trend in carbon storage, and the low-value areas of carbon storage in this area are mainly distributed in the urban areas of various cities and the coastal areas of "Qinbeifang". Hence, the carbon storage has obvious heterogeneity in spatial distribution, showing the characteristics of "low in the middle and high in the periphery".

This study aimed to investigate the impact of land use changes on the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage from the perspective of territorial spatial planning， using Dali County as a case study. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land use types and carbon storage were analyzed from 1990 to 2020 using the InVEST and PLUS models. Then， the changes of the land use and carbon storage in 2030 were predicted under three scenarios： natural development， ecological protection， and economic development. The results are as follows： ①The land use type of Dali County is mainly cultivated land， accounting for more than 70% of the total area， followed by forest land， grassland， water bodies， construction land， and unused land. From 1990 to 2020， the area of grassland and unused land decreases， while the area of cultivated land， forest land， water bodies， and construction land increase. Notably， the area of construction land experiences the most rapid increase of 78.72%. ② Spatially， the regions with a significant increase in carbon storage are located mainly in the southern sandy areas of Dali County， the regions with a decrease in carbon storage are scattered， and the carbon storage in the Yellow River beach area has a notable general downward trend. Temporally， the carbon storage in Dali County shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2000. However， with the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of construction land area during 2000 to 2020， the loss rate of carbon storage increases， and the loss amount reaches 50.78×106 t. ③ Obvious differences of carbon storage in 2030 emerge among the different scenarios. In the ecological protection scenario， carbon storage increases because the protection of forest and grass resources and strict constraints on the expansion of construction land are effectively ensured. In the natural development scenario， less carbon is lost. In the economic development scenario， the significant conversion of high-density carbon agricultural land to low-density carbon construction land leads to the greatest carbon loss. In light of these results， future land use planning in Dali County should focus on enhancing the control and protection of ecological nodes， strictly regulating the addition of new construction land， optimizing land use patterns， improving ecosystem service functions， increasing carbon sequestration efficiency， and promoting coordinated development between the county's economy and environment.

A goal of land change modelers should be to communicate scenarios of future change that show the variety of possible future landscapes based on the consequences of management decisions. This study employs the Markov-FLUS model to simulate land-use changes in Hubei Province in multiple scenarios that consider social, economic, and ecological policies using 18 driving factors, including point-of-interest data. First, the Markov-FLUS model was developed and validated with historical data from 2000 to 2020. The model was then used to simulate land-use changes from 2020 to 2035 in four scenarios: natural development, economic priority, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection. The results show that the Markov-FLUS model effectively simulates the land-use change pattern in Hubei Province, with an overall accuracy of 0.93 for land use simulation in 2020. The Kappa coefficient and FOM index also achieved 0.86 and 0.139, respectively. In all four scenarios, cultivated land remained the primary land use type in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2035, while construction land showed an increasing trend. However, there were large differences in the simulated land use patterns in different scenarios. Construction land expanded most rapidly in the economic priority scenario, while it expanded more slowly in the cultivated land protection scenario. We designed the protection scenario to restrict the rapid expansion of construction land. In the natural development and economic priority scenarios, construction land expanded and encroached on cultivated land and forests. In contrast, in the ecological protection scenario, forests and water areas were well-preserved, and the decrease in cultivated land and the increase in construction land were effectively suppressed, resulting in a large improvement in land use sustainability. Finally, in the cultivated land protection scenario, the cultivated land showed an increasing trend. The spread and expansion of construction land were effectively curbed. In conclusion, the Markov-FLUS model applied in this study to simulate land use in multiple scenarios has substantial implications for the effective utilization of land resources and the protection of the ecological environment in Hubei Province.

The change of land use type seriously affects the spatial distribution pattern of regional carbon stocks. Exploring the land use status under future scenarios can provide an important reference for the spatial optimization of land use structure, carbon budget balance, and sustainable development in inland arid areas. Based on the land use types of the Haixi Prefecture in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the characteristics of land use change in the study area over 20 years were analyzed. The PLUS-InVEST model combined with 13 driving factors was used to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of land use and carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection, and urban development scenarios in 2030. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land types in the Haixi Prefecture were grassland and unused land； the area of grassland continued to decrease, mainly transferred to unused and construction land, whereas the area of other land types showed an increasing trend. ② Compared with that in 2020, under the natural development scenario in 2030, the area of forest land will decrease by 204.86 km2, indicating a decrease of 24.18%, and the area of grassland will decrease by 4 167.02 km2. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of forest land and grassland will increase by 55.47 km2 and 929.41 km2, respectively. Under the urban development scenario, the construction land area will be 672.84 km2, indicating an increase of 17.34%. ③ From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage decreased by 162.04×106 t, showing a continuous downward trend. High carbon storage values were distributed in the eastern and southern parts of the study area, while low carbon storage values were mainly distributed in the Qaidam Basin and its periphery. ④ In 2030, carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario will increase by 84.78×106 t and 86.16×106 t compared with that under the natural and urban development scenarios, respectively, indicating that ecological protection can effectively increase carbon storage in the study area. These findings provide data support for rational land use planning and coordinated regional development in the Haixi Prefecture.

Accurate estimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and the scientific formulation of ecological conservation and land use policies are essential for promoting regional low-carbon sustainable development and achieving the goal of “carbon neutrality.” In this study, the FLUS–InVEST model was used to evaluate the carbon stocks of the Jiangsu coastal zone in China from 1995 to 2020 and scientifically forecast the changes in carbon stocks in 2030 under three scenarios: natural exploitation, ecological protection, and economic development. The results are as follows: (1) From 1995 to 2020, carbon storage in the coastal zone initially remained stable before declining, a trend closely linked to the accelerated urbanization and economic growth of Jiangsu Province. (2) By 2030, carbon storage under the three scenarios exhibits a pattern of “S1 decrease–S2 increase–S3 decrease,” with a more significant increase in construction land under the natural development and economic development scenarios compared to the ecological protection scenario. (3) The sensitivity of carbon storage to land use changes varies across scenarios. In the natural development scenario, carbon storage is most affected by forest reduction and construction land expansion. In the ecological protection scenario, it is more responsive to increases in non-construction land. In the economic development scenario, the expansion of construction land leads to the most significant decrease in carbon storage. Therefore, when formulating future territorial spatial planning policies and urban development strategies, it is essential to consider ecological protection and economic development scenarios comprehensively, taking into account carbon sequestration capabilities. This approach will ensure effective conservation and restoration of damaged ecosystems while safeguarding the robust development of urban economies and societies.

The increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by land use and land cover change (LUCC) is one of the drivers of the global climate. As one of the most typical high-urbanization areas, the ecological conflicts occurring in Guangdong Province warrant urgent attention. A growing body of evidence suggests LUCC could guide the future ecosystem carbon storage, but most LUCC simulations are simply based on model results without full consistency with the actual situation. Fully combined with the territorial spatial planning project and based on the land use pattern in 2010 and 2020, we have used the Markov and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the future four land use scenarios: the Business as Usual (BU), Ecological Protection (EP), Farmland Protection (FP), and Economic Development (ED) scenario, and the ecosystem carbon storage was assessed by the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The results show that the built-up area experience further expansion in all scenarios, the largest scale happened in ED and the smallest in FP. Besides, the forest area in the EP scenario is the largest, while the land use pattern developed based on the previous circumstances in the BU scenario. Furthermore, the carbon storage plunged from 1619.21 Tg C in 2010 to 1606.60 Tg C in 2020, with a total decrease of 12.61 Tg C. Urban expansion caused 79.83% of total carbon losses, of which 31.56% came from farmland. In 2030, the carbon storage dropped in all scenarios, and their storage amount has a relationship of FP > BU > EP > ED. To better resolve the ecological problems and conserve ecosystem carbon storage, not only ecological protection but also the protection of the land near the city such as farmland protection strategies must be considered.

Introduction: The carbon storage service of ecosystems in ecologically fragile areas is highly sensitive to regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Predicting changes in regional carbon storage under different LULC scenarios is crucial for land use management decisions and exploring carbon sink potential. This study focuses on the Luan River Basin, a typical ecologically fragile area, to analyze the impact of LULC changes on carbon storage.Methods: The PLUS-InVEST model was employed to simulate LULC patterns for the year 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, cropland protection and urban development, and ecological protection. The model projected the future carbon sink potential of the basin under these scenarios.Results: From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage showed a trend of decrease followed by an increase. By 2030, compared to 2020, carbon storage is projected to increase by 16.97% under the ecological protection scenario and decrease by 22.14% under the cropland protection and urban development scenario. The increase in carbon storage was primarily due to the conversion of cropland and grassland to forestland, while the decrease was mainly associated with the conversion of forestland to grassland and cropland, and the transformation of grassland to cropland and construction land. In the potential LULC scenarios of 2030, certain regions within the basin exhibited unstable carbon sink potential, strongly influenced by LULC changes. These areas were predominantly characterized by artificially cultivated forests, shrubs, and agricultural land. Implementing appropriate forest management measures and optimizing agricultural land management practices are essential to enhance carbon sink potential in these regions. Population density, annual average temperature, and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) were the dominant factors driving the spatial variation of carbon sink potential in the Luan River Basin.Discussion: The research results provide a theoretical basis for rational planning of land use and the enhancement of carbon sink potential in ecologically fragile regions.

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is a key driver of carbon storage changes, especially in complex coastal ecosystems such as the Yellow River Delta (YRD), which is jointly influenced by climate change and resource development. The compounded effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and land subsidence (LS) are particularly prominent. This study is the first to integrate the dual impacts of SLR and LS into a unified framework, using three climate scenarios (SSP1–26, SSP2–45, SSP5–85) provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), along with LS monitoring data, to comprehensively assess future inundation risks. Building on this, and taking into account land use and ecological protection policies in the YRD, three strategic scenarios—Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), Natural Development Scenario (NDS), and Economic Growth Scenario (EGS)—are established. The PLUS and InVEST models are used to jointly simulate LULCC and carbon storage changes across these scenarios. Unlike previous studies focusing on single driving factors, this research innovatively develops a dynamic simulation system for LULCC and carbon storage driven by the SLR-LS compound effects, providing scientific guidance for land space development and coastal zone planning in vulnerable coastal areas, while enhancing carbon sink potential. The results of the study show the following: (1) Over the past 30 years, the land use pattern of the YRD has generally extended toward the sea, with land use transitions mainly from grasslands (the largest reduction: 1096.20 km2), wetlands, reservoirs and ponds, and paddy fields to drylands, culture areas, construction lands, salt pans, and tidal flats. (2) Carbon storage in the YRD exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity. Low-carbon storage areas are primarily concentrated in the coastal regions, while high-carbon storage areas are mainly found in grasslands, paddy fields, and woodlands. LULCC, especially the conversion of high carbon storage ecosystems to low carbon storage uses, has resulted in an overall net regional carbon loss of 2.22 × 106 t since 1990. (3) The risk of seawater inundation in the YRD is closely related to LS, particularly under low sea-level scenarios, with LS playing a dominant role in exacerbating this risk. Under the EGS, the region is projected to face severe seawater inundation and carbon storage losses by 2030 and 2060.

As a typical karst landform region, the Lijiang River Basin, located in Southwest China, is characterized by both soil erosion and ecological fragility. The transformation of land use, driven by long-term intensive human activities, has exacerbated the degradation of ecosystem services, threatening the region’s carbon sink function. To clarify the coupling mechanism between land use and land cover change (LUCC) and carbon storage, this paper integrates complex network theory with the PLUS-InVEST model framework. Based on land use data from five periods, i.e., 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2021, the key transformation types are identified, and the evolution of carbon storage from 2021 to 2041 is simulated under three scenarios, namely, inertial scenario, ecological protection scenario, and urban development scenario. The paper finds that (1) land use transformation in the basin exhibits spatial heterogeneity and network complexity, as evidenced by a significant negative correlation between the node clustering coefficient and the average path length, revealing that land type transitions possess small-world network characteristics. (2) The forested land experienced a net decrease of 196.73 km2 from 2001 to 2021, driving a 3.03% decline in carbon storage. This highlights the inhibitory effect of unregulated urban expansion on carbon sink capacity. (3) Scenario simulations indicate that the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario will be 1.0% higher than under the inertial scenario and 1.5% higher than under the urban development scenario. These suggest that restricting impervious land expansion and promoting forest and grassland restoration can enhance carbon sink capacity. Therefore, this paper provides a quantitative basis for optimizing territorial spatial planning and coordinating the “dual carbon” goals in karst regions.

Land use pattern is a dominant factor causing carbon storage changes in terrestrial ecosystems and is crucial for maintaining the stability of carbon storage. Understanding the impact of land use on carbon storage variations in drylands is of great significance for local ecological protection and the sustainable management of land resources. Based on the land use data of the Gonghe Basin from 1990 to 2020, the InVEST model was applied to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage, and the PLUS model was used to predict the changes in carbon storage under three different development scenarios in 2030. The results are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the main land use types in the Gonghe Basin were grassland and unused land, with an overall increase in grassland and a marked decrease in unused land. (2) The spatial distribution of carbon storage was generally characterized by being low in the center and high at the edge, and grassland was the most important land use type with the highest carbon storage. Over the past 30 years, it has shown an increase followed by a decline, with an overall increase of 1.84%. (3) The carbon storage under the natural trend, urban development, and ecological protection scenarios will be 158.80 × 106 Mg, 158.66 × 106 Mg, and 159.83 × 106 Mg in 2030, respectively. The grassland and cropland areas were larger under the ecological protection scenario, which was more conducive to improving the carbon storage in this region. This study provides an effective reference for optimizing land use and achieving carbon neutrality (“dual carbon” goals) in drylands.

Examining the impact of land use change on carbon storage in Yuxi City holds significant practical importance and provides robust scientific support for the region to address urban climate change， strengthen environmental protection， and achieve the "dual carbon" goals. This study utilized seven sets of land use data from Yuxi City， collected every five years between 1990 and 2020， to quantify the dynamic relationship between land use change and carbon storage. Based on the requirements of the special plan for territorial spatial planning in Yuxi City， the PLUS model was employed to simulate land use patterns in 2030 under four different development scenarios： natural development， economic development， ecological protection， and comprehensive development. The InVEST model was then used to assess the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage under these scenarios， and the Geodetector model was applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage and the driving mechanisms behind it in greater detail. The study produced several important results： ① From a temporal perspective， the most significant forest restoration occurred between 1990 and 1995， and construction land expanded rapidly between 2015 and 2020. In terms of spatial distribution， the most notable land use changes were observed in the eastern part of Yuxi City. Both cultivated land and grassland showed decreasing trends， with cultivated land experiencing a particularly prominent decrease of 176.07 square kilometers， while forest land increased by 81.48 square kilometers. ② Between 1990 and 2020， the carbon storage in Yuxi City first increased and then decreased， from 306.282 7 million tons in 1990， peaking at 307.699 4 million tons in 1995， and then to 305.559 8 million tons in 2020. Among this decrease， the loss of carbon storage due to the reduction of cultivated land accounted for 80% of the total reduction. ③ Compared to 2020， the carbon storage in 2030 decreased under all scenarios， that is， natural development， economic development， ecological protection， and comprehensive development， with carbon storage amounts of 304.831 4 million， 304.538 9 million， 305.504 8 million， and 305.211 0 million tons， respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario， optimizing land use structure and improving land use efficiency can effectively mitigate the threat of urban development to carbon storage loss. ④ NDVI is a key driving factor explaining the spatial differentiation pattern of carbon storage in Yuxi City， with a q-value of 0.338 8. The interaction between NDVI and elevation enhances the explanatory power of each factor on the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. Under the ecological protection scenario， with the continuous expansion of forest land area， carbon storage in the ecosystem can effectively accumulate， positively contributing to a significant increase in carbon storage in Yuxi City.