Canids in a changing climate: predicting range shifts and evolutionary rescue under distinct future scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Human land use and climate change have profoundly impacted species distributions, with approximately a quarter of all known mammal species currently facing extinction threats. In this study, we modelled both present and future potential distributions of all 36 extant Canidae species to assess their responses to moderate and pessimistic future climatic scenarios. Additionally, we investigated the likelihood of canids experiencing evolutionary rescue, which could facilitate adaptation to climate change for certain species. We gathered species occurrence data for all extant canids and corresponding environmental variables for these locations. Our modelling results reveal that 32 species (89% of Canidae species) are projected to undergo range contractions owing to climate change, whereas four species (11% of canids) are expected to expand their ranges. Evolutionary analyses suggest that some canids might lack the capacity to adapt to the rapid pace of climate change, particularly Atelocynus microtis and Vulpes velox. Furthermore, our findings underscore the critical importance of incorporating variables related to proximity to water bodies to predict the future distributions of South American canids accurately.