Candidate spending and success in Israel’s party primaries: How far does money go?

Abstract

The last decade has seen an upswing in and expansion of party primaries as a means of selecting legislative candidates in many parliamentary democracies. Yet, while most democracies around the world regulate the financial aspects of general elections, the same cannot be said for these intraparty contests. The absence of financial regulation in party primaries may explain why the effect of candidate spending on success has received so little attention in the literature. The current study seeks to investigate to what extent candidates’ spending affects their success, focusing on Israel’s legislative primary elections. Although the Israeli Party Law sets expenditure ceilings with the aim of leveling the playing field, there is considerable variance in the amount of money candidates raise, invest, and spend. This variance allows us to test the relationship between candidates’ expenditure and their success. Based on reports by the State Comptroller and on formal results of primary elections, we analyze seven primary contests that were held in three political parties between 2008 and 2015. Candidates’ success is measured in two ways: (1) the number of votes each candidate received, and (2) whether the candidate was elected to parliament. Our findings point to a strong positive correlation between the amount of money spent and the number of votes received. However, when factors such as incumbency and public familiarity are considered, the picture is more nuanced.