Can seasonal climate forecasting assist in catchment water management decision-making?

Abstract

Although the ability to forecast climatic variability has progressed significantly in recent years, there appears little use of seasonal climate forecast information in catchment water management decision-making. Forecast accuracy, or the perceived lack of forecast accuracy, is cited as a key impediment to the uptake of forecast information in decision-making despite the efforts of researchers to statistically validate forecast systems. One potential reason why accuracy remains an impediment is that decision-makers are not only concerned with statistical validity from a climatological perspective, but also with how accurately a forecast predicts impacts on variables of interest from their perspective. This paper examines this issue using a case study approach from eastern Australia to show that a forecast, which is acceptable from a climatological perspective, does not necessarily transfer into a useable forecast for decision-makers. The results show that expected outcomes differ considerably from outcomes generated using a perfect forecast. These unintended outcomes can decrease the potential for a forecast to be useful to decision-makers. It is concluded that forecast research needs to address forecast accuracy from a user perspective to facilitate the adoption of forecast information in decision-making.