Can science-informed, consensus-based stakeholder negotiations achieve optimal dam decision outcomes?

Abstract

Integrating science and decision-making in dam management is needed to address complex tradeoffs among environmental, economic, and social outcomes across varied geographic scales and diverse stakeholder interests. In this study, we introduce an approach that integrates system dynamics modeling (SDM) and role-play simulation (RPS) to facilitate use of the best available knowledge in dam decision-making. Using a hypothetical dam decision context in the New England region of the United States, this research investigates: (1) How do science-informed, negotiated outcomes compare to Pareto-optimal outcomes produced by a scientific model that balance selected system performance tradeoffs?; and (2) How do science-informed, negotiated outcomes compare to the status quo outcome? To our knowledge, this research is the first effort to combine SDM and RPS to support dam decisions and compare science-informed, consensus-based outcomes and optimized system outcomes. Our analyses show Pareto-optimal solutions usually involve a multi-dam management approach with diversified management options. Although all negotiated outcomes produced a net loss compared with at least one of the Pareto-optimal solutions balanced across tradeoffs, some yielded benefits close to or better than specific Pareto-optimal solutions. All negotiated outcomes yielded improvements over the status quo outcome. Our findings highlight the potential for science-informed, stakeholder-engaged approaches to inform decision-making and improve environmental and economic outcomes.