Can corruption indices lead to statistical discrimination? Experimental evidence from a within-country setting

Studies of ecologic or aggregate data suffer from a broad range of biases when scientific interest lies with individual-level associations. To overcome these biases, epidemiologists can choose from a range of designs that combine these group-level data with individual-level data. The individual-level data provide information to identify, evaluate, and control bias, whereas the group-level data are often readily accessible and provide gains in efficiency and power. Within this context, the literature on developing models, particularly multilevel models, is well-established, but little work has been published to help researchers choose among competing designs and plan additional data collection. We review recently proposed "combined" group- and individual-level designs and methods that collect and analyze data at 2 levels of aggregation. These include aggregate data designs, hierarchical related regression, two-phase designs, and hybrid designs for ecologic inference. The various methods differ in (i) the data elements available at the group and individual levels and (ii) the statistical techniques used to combine the 2 data sources. Implementing these techniques requires care, and it may often be simpler to ignore the group-level data once the individual-level data are collected. A simulation study, based on birth-weight data from North Carolina, is used to illustrate the benefit of incorporating group-level information. Our focus is on settings where there are individual-level data to supplement readily accessible group-level data. In this context, no single design is ideal. Choosing which design to adopt depends primarily on the model of interest and the nature of the available group-level data.

Object: Digitalization itself and as a result of digitalization of public administration is a globally actual trend. Especially after last pandemic year when government staff mostly had to work remotely. This may be one of the reason of Kazakhstan’s improvement at the corruption ranking. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the level of digitalization of public administration and the level of perception of corruption.Methods: Methods of grouping and classification, as well as methods of mathematical modeling were used in processing and systematization of data.Findings: While looking over history of corruption and digitalization it was revealed that countries with high level of digitalization of public administration have good positions at the corruption perceptions index (CPI). Before starting the study, the author put forward a logical hypothesis about the presence of a high directly proportional relationship between these two characteristics, to confirm which mathematical analysis (Cramer’s rule) was applied. A brief overview of the development of corruption and digitalization starting from the first moments of the beginning of both phenomena was given.Conclusions: As a result of the study, a correlation with the R2coefficient equal to 0.8988 was found, which confirmed the accepted hypothesis. In other words, a high level of digitalization of public administration makes it possible to improve indicators in the corruption perception index.

John C. Bersia 17 ARTICLES INTERVIEW WITH ALEJANDRO SALAS,ACTING DIRECTOR, AMERICAS REGIONAL DEPARTMENT, TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL John C. Bersia Universityof Central Florida Alejandro Salas serves as Acting Director of the Americas Regional Department at TransparencyInternational(T1).TI is the leading organization fighting corruption around the world. He recentlydiscussed his organization’slatestfindings about corruption in Latin America with John C. Bersia, who serves as Special Assistant to the President and is University Professor at the University of Central Florida. Q: In your latest corruption rankings released in late 2005, how did LatinAmerica fare? AlejandroMas: LatinAmericacontinuesto be a region perceived as highly corrupt, accordingto Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI). Out of the 18 Latin American countries included,only Chile and Uruguay have scores above 5. Half of these countries score bellow 3, which indicates endemic corruption. Among them: Paraguay, Venezuela, Guatemala, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua,Honduras and Argentina. Q: How dothose resultscomparewith the findingsof previous years? A: The regional average remains relatively stable at 3.86 (last year’s was 3.65). In terms of individual countries, we can highlight the following:Decliners,2004 to 2005: Costa Rica and Uruguay ; improvers, 2004 to 2005: Argentina, Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras. 18 The Latin Americanist Spring 2006 Q: What may accountfor the changesyou have noted? A: It is difficult to find single reasons that apply to the whole region, however, there are specific situations that shed light on the kinds of issues that are present in some countries and help in understanding why scores are still so low. Of particularinterest is the substantialfallin CostaRica’sperformance(CPI 2005scoreof 4.2; CPI2004scoreof 4.9).Thiscan be attributedin part to several corruption scandals in recent years involving former presidents, multinational companiesand foreign governments. Despite some government efforts to counter these problems, such as creation of the Officeof the SpecialAttorney for Ethics and Public Services, much more is needed to rid the country’s political institutionsof corruption.Brazil (CPI 2005 score of 3.7; CPI 2004 scoreof 3.9) has been hit by corruption and illegal financingscandalsaffecting the country’s executive, legislatureand political parties, deriving directly from vulnerabilities in Brazil’s institutional framework, such as the excessivefreedomof governmentsto appointpolitical appointees to occupy positions in the state’s management. It is clear that a comprehensive approachinvolving an integratedanticorruptionstrategyis required. Q: Could you discuss, as well, the consistently low scores? A: Argentina (CPI 2005 score of 2.8; CPI 2004 score of 2.5) has scored poorly in recent CPIs, reflecting the perception of severe corruption.Despite reforms made to the selection process for the Supreme Court of Justice, and the Access to Public Information decree, there is still much room for improvement. In particular, the Committeedesignatedto overseeexecutionof the budget has not done so for the past 10 years, allowing the Chief of Cabinet to reallocate budgetary funds at his discretion. Guatemala (CPI 2005 score of 2.5; CPI 2004 score of 2.2) has again received a very low score despite recent government initiatives, including the 2004 Commission for Transparency and against Corruption, which advisesthe executiveon how to combatcorruption,and the involvementof various stateand civil societybodies in advocating and promoting better regulation. Further efforts are needed with respect to efficient public anti-corruption institutions, strengthening of the electronic public contracting system and improved access to information.With presidentialelections due in Mexico (CPI 2005 score of 3.5; CPI 2004 score of 3.6) in 2006, the commitment of candidates to increase transparency in income and expenses will be key in avoiding a repeat of 2000’s electoral financing scandals. The government has been active through the John C. Bersia 19 promotion of federal, state and local laws on access to public information,creationof an autonomousentityto guaranteeaccess to public information, and increased monitoring faculties for the Federal Electoral Institute. However, it is clear that much work remains in order to rid Mexico’spublic institutionsof corruption. Q: ThroughoutLatin America, corruption has moved higher on the politicalagenda in recentyears.Why is that? A: We could observe that the anticorruptiondebate and political agenda gained momentum during the second half of the 90s and continued in the Latin America region up to 2004. This was an important consequence after organizations such as TI, the...

Corruption has affected many countries all over the world especially the developing countries. It has various implications for both the developed and developing economies. Corruption hampers development and thus raises the level of poverty in any economy that finds itself entrenched in corrupt practices. Corruption creates uncertainty and risk in the growth and development potential of any country. The study investigated the impact of corruption on economic development in Nigeria. Secondary data were sourced from World Bank reports on Nigeria and corruption reports from transparency international on Nigeria. The data were analysed using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression technique. Hypothesis tested with respect to Corruption Perception Index (CPI) was not accepted implying that the tests were statistically significant, meaning that Corruption Perception Index (CPI), a proxy for corruption in this research negatively affects economic development. On the other hand, the hypothesis tested on the Corruption Rank (CR) of Nigeria and Relative Corruption Ranking (RCR) of Nigeria among countries under review was not accepted meaning that the relative position of Nigeria among countries under review and Nigeria’s rank on corruption cadre is also statistically significant. The findings show that corruption has a significant negative effect on economic growth and development. It is recommended that the Nigerian government should employ the strict application of anti-corruption codes as stipulated in the legislations that created the anticorruption agency without prejudice or double standard irrespective of the culprit’s stature or position in the society. Transparency, accountability and the application of the rule of law in dealing with corrupt government officials and politicians can lead to improved CPI ranking, induce investment, and foster economic growth and development.

Rankings of countries by perceived corruption have emerged over the past decade as leading indicators of governance and development. Designed to highlight countries that are known to be corrupt, their objective is to encourage transparency and good governance. High rankings on corruption, it is argued, will serve as a strong incentive for reform. The practice of ranking and labeling countries “corrupt,” however, may have a perverse effect. Consistent with Social Labeling Theory, we argue that perceptual indices can encourage the loss of needed investment and, thus, contribute to higher rates of corruption within unfavorably ranked countries. In effect, corruption indices may inhibit foreign direct investment, the effect of which is to encourage the status quo in terms of corruption ranking. Using an experimental study design, we test the effects of country corruption rankings on the assessment of country investment desirability and find ranking exposure causes shifts in country investment desirability for 10 of 12 countries studied. These findings suggest that corruption rankings, which are based on perceptions of corruption, may cause country isolation and a reduction in legitimate means of investment.

Empirical work in a cross‐section framework demonstrates little or no support for absolute convergence in per capita GDP. I argue in this paper that “divergence in corruption”, defined as the tendency of corrupt countries to become more corrupt faster than less corrupt nations, is a neglected factor that also determines the speed of convergence. Using Transparency International (TI) corruption perceptions index, I estimate C‐σ and C‐γ coefficients for corrupt and less corrupt economies to explore the C‐divergence in corruption rankings. The study concludes that corrupt countries are C‐converging, forming a “corrupt club”.

Since Transparency International first released its annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) in 1995, the CPI has quickly become the best known corruption indicator worldwide. The CPI has been widely credited with making comparative and large-N studies of corruption possible, as well as putting the issue of corruption squarely in the international policy agenda. Despite its enormous influence on both academic and policy fronts, the CPI is not without critics. One often noted critique is that the CPI relies solely on surveys of foreign business people and the expert assessments of cross-national analysts; as such, the CPI mainly reflects international experts’ perceptions, not the perceptions of each country’s citizens. This study examines the above critique in closer detail. Data from the Asian Barometer Survey is employed to analyze whether international experts’ corruption perceptions were similar to those of domestic citizens. The Asian Barometer Survey is a public opinion survey on issues related to political values, democracy, and public reform in 13 different areas around East and Southeast Asia (Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam). Data analysis indicates that global and local perspectives are only moderately aligned in the 13 areas studied. International experts and domestic citizens differ, to varying degrees, in their evaluation of the extent of public sector corruption in several areas, suggesting the presence of a corruption perception gap. Four implications about the existence of this gap can be drawn for future corruption measurement.

Since Transparency International first released its annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) in 1995, the CPI has quickly become the best known corruption indicator worldwide. The CPI has been widely credited with making comparative and large-N studies of corruption possible, as well as putting the issue of corruption squarely in the international policy agenda. Despite its enormous influence on both academic and policy fronts, the CPI is not without critics. One often noted critique is that the CPI relies solely on surveys of foreign business people and the expert assessments of cross-national analysts; as such, the CPI mainly reflects international experts’ perceptions, not the perceptions of each country's citizens. This study examines the above critique in closer detail. Data from the Asian Barometer Survey is employed to analyze whether international experts’ corruption perceptions were similar to those of domestic citizens. The Asian Barometer Survey is a public opinion survey on issues related to political values, democracy, and public reform in 13 different areas around East and Southeast Asia (Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam). Data analysis indicates that global and local perspectives are only moderately aligned in the 13 areas studied. International experts and domestic citizens differ, to varying degrees, in their evaluation of the extent of public sector corruption in several areas, suggesting the presence of a corruption perception gap. Four implications about the existence of this gap can be drawn for future corruption measurement.

In this paper we investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth in Portugal over the period 1980-2018. The empirical approach makes use of a VAR model inspired by the standard Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function. The VAR model includes the capital stock, hours worked, total factor productivity and the corruption perceptions index (CPI) of Transparency International. The CPI combines several sources of information on the level of corruption in each country. The scale of this index goes from 0, the highest level of corruption, to 10, the lowest level. The magnitude of the estimated effect of corruption on economic growth in the unrestricted VAR model is large (and positive), but statistically not significantly different from zero. However, the results from the estimation of a structural VAR model with economically plausible long-run restrictions indicate modest gains from reducing corruption.

This paper analyses the impact of corruption on environmental sustainability in all 16 countries in the Southern region of Africa from 2010-2017. The paper uses two proxies of corruption: the Corruption Index and Corruption Ranking. Using two econometric methods, namely, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger causality test and the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) techniques this study found largely congruent results on both causation and relationships, respectively. Firstly, the two indicators of corruption harmoniously show that corruption Granger causes the existing state of environmental sustainability in Southern African economies, and vice-versa. Moreover, in the short-run corruption was also found to worsen environmental sustainability for both regression models deployed using the two corruption indicators. In the long-term, the two measures of corruption conflicted with their findings. In this regard, though the relationship is contradicting in the long-run the corruption negative (becoming bad) effect of corruption ranking surpasses the corruption positive (becoming clean) effect of corruption index by nearly three times. This show how detrimental corruptible actions are to the natural environment. Overall, this paper consent to global reports explaining how Southern African environments are gradually deteriorating by putting corruption as one central practice causing extensive damage.

People are increasingly interacting with forms of artificial intelligence (AI). It is crucial to understand whether accepted evidence for human-human reciprocity holds true for human-bot interactions. In a pre-registered online experiment (N = 539) we first replicate recent studies, finding that the identity of a player's counterpart in a one-shot binary Trust Game has a significant effect on the rate of reciprocity, with bot counterparts receiving lower levels of returned amounts than human counterparts. We then explore whether individual differences in a player's personality traits—in particular Agreeableness, Extraversion, Honesty-Humility and Openness—moderate the effect of the identity of the player's counterpart on the rate of reciprocity. In line with literature on human-human interactions, participants exhibiting higher levels of Honesty-Humility, and to a lesser extent Agreeableness, are found to reciprocate more, regardless of the identity of their counterpart. No personality trait, however, moderates the effect of interacting with a bot. Finally, we consider whether general attitudes to AI affect the reciprocity but find no significant relationship.

Nepal is the 122nd least corrupt nations out of 175 countries throughout the world according to the 2017 'Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI)' reported by Transparency International. Corruption Rank in Nepal averaged 127. 64 from 2004 until 2017 A.D., reaching an all time high of 154 in 2011 and a record low of 90 in 2004. Various cases of VAT fraud, massive irregularities in the distribution of relief materials of earthquake victims and the government's failure to control the artificial increase of fuel and basic goods, prices after Madhesh agitation and crisis in Nepal-India trade relation has evidenced that corruption in Nepal has becoming systemic. However, no study is undertaken to estimate the magnitude of corruption. Therefore, along with the promulgation of the Federal Democratic Republic Constitution of Nepal, 2015AD, time has come to conduct a nationwide survey to estimate the magnitude of corruption in Nepalese economy and identify the measures to control it. This study has analyzed the historical trends of corruption and economic growth as well as conceptual and theoretical issues of corruption. The main objective of the study is to analyze the determinants of corruption in Nepal. In order to obtain valid useful data about corruption, academic research has been the main sources of information in this study. The objective of the study has to analyze the trend, extend and explore the determinants of corruption in Nepal. Both inductive and descriptive approach has been adopted for methodology. The corruption data have been taken from Transparency International (TI). ADB and Economic Surveys of Nepal have been taken the data for other variables.

The study examines the effect of corruption (using corruption perception index and Nigeria corruption ranking as proxies) on the stock market performance (proxied with share price index) in Nigeria. The study employed time series data spanning twenty years (1996-2016). Data availability especially on corruption indices was the major reason underlying the choice of period. The data were obtained from CBN Statistical Bulletin and Transparency International website. With the aid of SPSS version 20, the study used Multi-regression analysis and student t-test for the test of hypotheses. The study finds a significant positive correlation between corruption and stock market performance in Nigeria. The result reveals robust positive and significant relationships between Nigeria Corruption Ranking, Corruption perception index and Share price index. The result of the study explains the integration of graft into the Nigerian economic system. Therefore, adoption of a strong form of stock market efficiency by the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) for actualization by all listed firms in Nigeria is hereby recommended. In addition, we recommend that the Federal and State governments should formulate more result-oriented policies and rules that could help combat corruption more effectively.

The relevance of this study lies in the need to examine the effectiveness of international anti-corruption programmes in Eastern European and Balkan countries, as corruption remains a serious obstacle to their sustainable development and integration into the EU. This study aimed to identify the main achievements and challenges in combating corruption and to assess their impact on the Corruption Perceptions Index. The methodology was based on the analysis of Corruption Perceptions Index data for the years 2014-2024, comparative examination of the region’s political and social conditions, and systematisation of the results of anti-corruption standard implementation. The findings demonstrated that the successful application of international anti-corruption standards depends on the combination of political will, judicial independence, and the involvement of civil society. The analysis of the relationship between international corruption rankings and the foreign policy prospects of Eastern European and Balkan countries revealed a complex dynamic in how anti corruption reforms affect states’ international standing. The Ukrainian experience illustrated the dual nature of such influence: on the one hand, progress in Corruption Perceptions Index indicators strengthened international support, while on the other, the limited effectiveness of anti-corruption institutions restricted tangible achievements. Albania and Moldova achieved moderate progress through the establishment of anti-corruption bodies and EU support. By contrast, Serbia and North Macedonia experienced a decline in performance due to political crises and institutional weakness. The study underlined the importance of a comprehensive approach to combating corruption, combining both national reforms and international support. The results obtained may serve to refine the anti-corruption strategies of Eastern European and Balkan countries, taking into account the key success factors of institutional independence, judicial reform, and public oversight

Disinformation about science can impose enormous economic and public health burdens. A recently proposed strategy to help online users recognise false content is to follow the techniques of professional fact checkers, such as looking for information on other websites (lateral reading) and looking beyond the first results suggested by search engines (click restraint). In two preregistered online experiments (N = 5387), we simulated a social media environment and tested two interventions, one in the form of a pop-up meant to advise participants to follow such techniques, the other based on monetary incentives. We measured participants’ ability to identify whether information was scientifically valid or invalid. Analysis of participants’ search style reveals that both monetary incentives and pop-up increased the use of fact-checking strategies. Monetary incentives were overall effective in increasing accuracy, whereas the pop-up worked when the source of information was unknown. Pop-up and incentives, when used together, produced a cumulative effect on accuracy. We suggest that monetary incentives enhance content relevance, and could be combined with fact-checking techniques to counteract disinformation.