Building wildland–urban interface zone resilience through performance-based wildfire engineering. A holistic theoretical framework

Abstract

In recent years, a worldwide expansion in the frequency of large, uncontrolled, and catastrophic wildfire events has occurred, creating drastic social, economic, and environmental damage, especially in wildland–urban interface (WUI) zones. This damage includes losses of life, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. The impacts of wildfires at the WUI derive from the complicated and multidimensional interconnected relationships present in the Anthropocene. To enforce resilience of the environment and human communities against wildfires, it is critical to comprehend the local social-ecological systems holistically. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework approach, built on performance-based wildfire engineering, that is envisioned to be a stepping stone towards WUI resilience. To attain this objective, performance benchmarking and design is disaggregated into explicit components of a rigorous mathematical framework. They are linked to a causal inference chain, providing an integrated picture and enabling decision analysis to identify the optimal management strategies based on quantitative parameters. The proposed framework is developed from the total probability theorem and divides the risk assessment into single parts, in particular (1) hazard (wildfire) analysis, (2) social-ecological impact characterization, (3) social-ecological interaction analysis, (4) social-ecological impact analysis, (5) damage analysis, and (6) loss analysis. Therefore, the proposed framework can be applied by emergency agencies directly to assess the performance of society and ecosystem recovery after a wildfire, making emergency management and resilience policy-making more effective.