Building climate resiliency in offshore wind energy expansion plans

Wind energy is becoming an essential part of the energy system in the Baltic Sea region (BSR). There has been a tremendous development of offshore wind energy in the early 21st century in this region, and the plan for further growth in the coming years is ambitious. The development and implementation of offshore wind energy is a complex process involving many physical and sociopolitical aspects. These aspects have their own characteristics in the BSR. Therefore, they have their unique impact and constraints on the regional development and implementation of the strategic energy technology (SET) plans. This includes implementing next-generation wind turbine technology, offshore wind farms and system integration, floating offshore wind and wind energy industrialization, wind energy operation, maintenance and installation, ecosystems, social impact and human capital agendas, and basic wind energy sciences. Climate change is an important issue to address in relation to future development. Among the questions that may arise are: How would climate change affect the wind resource, extreme wind, and several meteorological and oceanic variables relevant to the offshore wind energy sector? What does this effect imply for the development of offshore wind energy in the BSR? It is encouraging to acknowledge that there have been numerous relevant, good quality, pertinent studies on the subject of the BSR, and many more are ongoing. It is also inspiring to see that in the wind energy sector, there are already many technologies, methods, and tools that are sufficiently mature, and many of them, together with lessons learned through studies in other offshore regions, can be applied to support the urgent and extensive scale development of offshore wind in the BSR.

Economic and sustainability promises of wind energy considering the impacts of climate change and vulnerabilities to extreme conditions

<p>Compound events lead to substantial risks to societies around the globe. As climate change is increasingly exacerbating the intensity and frequency of many hazards in vulnerable regions, ex situ responses to climate change including human mobility and displacement are starkly moving into the spotlight. Whilst proactive migration is often used as an adaptation response to the impact of climate and weather events, reactive migration following unprecedented climatic shocks is often involuntarily and can seriously disrupt livelihoods and undermine human security. The extent to which human mobility (here, measured by internal displacement) can be attributed to extreme weather and compound events and in turn, whether and to what extent extreme weather events and consequently human mobility can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, has been largely unexplored. </p><p>Applying a framework based on probabilistic event attribution (PEA) of extreme weather events, we investigate, for the first time, human mobility responses attributed to anthropogenic climate change along a causal chain from anthropogenic climate change and changing frequencies and intensities of extreme weather and climate events to human mobility outcomes. We use the April 2020 extreme precipitation which lead to flooding and associated displacement in Somalia as a feasibility study to present the state of the art of this method. Our attribution model investigates two locations: First, we attribute extreme precipitation at the origin region of the extreme event to then attribute the resulting flood event in the displacement impact region. Event though the analysis shows no attributable link to anthropogenic climate change, our method advances the field of climate impact research regarding statistical approaches, model development and evaluation. For our feasibility study, we also find that sparsity of climate observations reveal one of many reasons for a lack of a climate change signal, which suggests an application of our model to other climate event contexts is needed to further test our method.</p>

Offshore wind energy is getting more attention from governments. Germany had the third rank among all countries in total offshore wind energy capacity at the end of 2022. Denmark, having less land area but a good location for offshore wind power, had the fourth rank. Both countries' offshore wind energy sectors have significant roles globally. This paper aims to explore the development paths of offshore wind energy policy in Denmark and Germany and understand the developmental differences. The trends in offshore wind energy production and the evolving policies of the governments are analysed, by comparing the two countries. Most of the policies in Denmark and Germany resulted positively, and their policy paths were sim- ilar with some nuance. The research concludes that a governmental policy strategy and a flex- ible support mechanism are the keys to developing an innovative offshore wind energy sector.

With the promotion of renewable energy production and a planned phaseout of fossil fuels until 2040, the offshore wind energy sector has expanded and will continue to increase its capacity in the upcoming decades. This study presents a novel approach to deriving the installed capacity of offshore wind turbines on a global scale from spaceborne radar imagery provided by the Sentinel-1 mission. This new method contributes significantly to the information depth of freely available data sets, which provide the spatiotemporal patterns of offshore wind turbines. Furthermore, by combining freely available Earth observation and GIS data, commonly reported attributes of the offshore wind energy sector are compiled to provide a first impression of how this data can be used. All attributes are investigated to provide an in-depth overview of the developments in the offshore wind energy sector over the last five years. Between July 2016 and June 2021, the installed capacity worldwide grew from 13.5 GW to 40.6 GW. This corresponds to an increase of 27.1 GW or 200%. In total 8885 OWTs were installed until June 2021 with an additional 852 under construction. The European Union (15.2 GW), China (14.1 GW) and the United Kingdom (10.7 GW) are the three major contributors to the offshore wind energy sector. China has seen the largest growth in the last five years of 13 GW, followed by the EU with 8 GW and the UK with 5.8 GW. The provided analysis at the end of this study describes the offshore wind energy sector in a transition phase between decades of maturity and massive growth at a time when carbon-neutral energy production is massively supported. Overall the proposed approaches for independent offshore wind turbine capacity estimation and spatiotemporal investigation of the offshore wind energy sector can be used by all stakeholders involved in the upcoming challenge of integrated planning and implementation of offshore wind energy projects. • Novel approach for height calculation and capacity estimation of offshore wind turbines. • Global scale offshore wind energy installed capacity report based on EO data. • Spatiotemporal analysis of site specifications of offshore wind turbines. • Regional comparison of the development of the offshore wind energy sector.

A review of combined wave and offshore wind energy

The increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events resulting from climate change have led to grid outages and other negative consequences. To ensure the resilience of buildings which serve as primary shelters for occupants, resilient strategies are being developed to improve their ability to withstand these extreme events (e.g., building upgrades and renewable energy generators and storage). However, a crucial step towards creating a resilient built environment is accurately estimating building performance during such conditions using historical extreme climate change-induced weather events. To conduct Building Performance Simulation (BPS) in extreme conditions, such as weather events induced by climate change, it is essential to utilize Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather files instead of Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) files. AMY files capture the precise climatic conditions during extreme weather events, enabling accurate simulation of such scenarios. These weather files provide valuable data that can be used to assess the vulnerabilities and resilience of buildings to extreme weather events. By analyzing past events and their impacts using BPS tools, we can gain insights into the specific weaknesses and areas that require improvement. This approach applies to both existing buildings needing climate change-resilient retrofits and new building designs that must be compatible with future climatic conditions. Moreover, the intensification and frequency increase of these extreme weather events makes developing adaptation and resilient-building measures imperative. This involves understanding the potential losses that households may experience due to the intensification of extreme events and developing farsighted coping strategies and climate-proof resilient-building initiatives. However, addressing the knowledge gap caused by the absence of an AMY weather file dataset of extreme events is essential. This will allow for accurate BPS during past extreme climate change-induced weather events. To fill this gap, this article introduces a comprehensive .epw format weather file dataset focusing on historical extreme weather events in Canada. This collection encompasses a diverse array of past extreme climate change occurrences in various locations, with potential for future expansion to include additional locations and countries. This dataset enables energy simulations for different types of buildings and considers a diverse range of historical weather conditions, allowing for better estimation of thermal performance.

Critique of offshore wind energy policies of the UK and Germany—What are the lessons for India

The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation of mitigation policies. However, national scale composites of climate hotspots remain a bottle neck to this policy formation. This paper therefore, modelled the spatially explicit extreme weather and climate events indicators into a Uganda-national extreme weather and climate events composite hotspot indicator model. The hotspot model was mapped into decomposable sub-indicators based on the Geon concept. A spatial indicator framework was developed through literature review and expert knowledge. The resulting indicators were weighted using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) /factor analysis and then normalized. They were aggregated using Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tools in an Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) environment. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to ascertain the influence and significance of the indicators in the resultant model. A cumulative climate change index model was hence analysed and mapped. The mapping provides spatially explicit information regarding climate extremes at national scale, consequently addressing its growing demand among public and private institutions. Further research, into the complex interactions of cumulative climatic factors and external components like ecological systems and anthropogenic biomes will go a long way in boosting climate information. This coupled with easy access to open web availability; if adopted, will readily inform national climate change policy at national level and greatly improve decision making within development sectors, hence mitigating the advance effects of climate change.

China: Jiangsu Black Cat – carbon nanotubes

The impact of climate change on the environment and human activities is one of the biggest concerns for the international community. Wind energy represents one of the most reliable and promising technology to achieve the target reduction of emissions. Though more intense and uniform resources characterize offshore areas, climate change may alter the environmental conditions and thus Levelized Cost of Energy evaluation. In this study, we analyze the impact of climate change on the offshore wind energy sector over the North Sea and the Irish Sea, where the majority of the European investments are located. To this aim, seven regional climate model simulations from the EURO-Cordex project are first evaluated. The ERA5 reanalysis product is considered the historical reference information after its validation against in-situ records and it is used to analyze the climate simulations by assessing their performance to reproduce weather types. Several statistics are calculated to assess the skill of each model in reproducing past climatology for the reference period (1985-2004). Since no significant differences between simulations are highlighted, an ensemble of all the seven simulations is used to characterize future changes in the offshore climate. Weather types under the representative concentration path scenario RCP8.5 for the future period 2081-2100 are then analyzed to describe the changes in climatological mean and extreme events. Regional climate model simulations are bias-corrected by applying the empirical quantile mapping technique. Then, future changes in six wind energy climate indicators (i.e. mean and extreme wind speed, wind power density, operation hours, gross energy yield, and capacity factor) are estimated for seven operating offshore wind farms. Results indicate a slight decrease in wind energy production, particularly in the northwest of the domain of study, testified by a reduction of all the climate indicators. However, large uncertainties in the projected changes are found at the wind farms located close to the south coast of the North Sea. Extreme wind conditions show a modest rise in the southeastern part of the region, related to an increase of the weather types dominated by cyclonic systems off Scotland shores.

High electricity generation costs remain a significant barrier to wind energy adoption. Projections of a 37–49% cost reduction by 2050 have driven the expansion of offshore wind farms (OWFs), which benefit from larger installations and abundant wind resources. However, climate change poses risks to OWFs, with extreme weather events (EWEs) potentially exposing turbines to conditions beyond their design limits. This study develops a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)-based framework to optimize OWF siting in the UK Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), ensuring resilience to EWEs and future wind variability.The framework evaluates future high wind events (HWE) exceeding turbine cut-out speeds and extreme loading thresholds, alongside low wind events (LWE) impacting power generation stability. Using high-resolution UK climate projections (UKCP18), the study integrates critical datasets—mean wind speed, gusts, temperature, and pressure—into site selection. Three MCDA methods (Vikor, Topsis, Cocoso) were identified as most effective based on strong correlation tests and applied to assess ten factors across three climate periods.Results indicate that 17 MW turbines align with industry trends, while repowering existing OWFs in the East is less favorable due to future ranking declines. The Northwest emerges as the preferred region for new installations, offering greater resilience to climate impacts and ranking stability.This work supports planners in strategic wind power capacity distribution, reducing variability, enhancing turbine resilience, and integrating climate projections into OWF planning. The framework provides a robust tool for adaptive and sustainable wind energy development in a changing climate.

This paper provides a review and analysis of cross-fertilization opportunities between the shipbuilding industry in Colombia and the Offshore Wind Energy (OWE) sector. It is aimed to identify the main aspects involved in the design and construction of floating platforms for Offshore Wind Turbines (OWTs) and to examine the restrictions and capabilities of the Colombian shipbuilding industry for their implementation.

Purpose There is increasing research interest in the expansion of the offshore wind energy sector. Recent research shows that operations and maintenance (O&M) account for around 20-35 per cent of the total energy costs in this sector. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of O&M issues in the offshore wind energy sector to propose initiatives that can help reduce the cost of energy used by offshore wind farms. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on an in-depth literature review and a Delphi study of a panel of 16 experts on O&M. Findings Consisting primarily of conceptual papers and/or modelling papers, the extant literature identifies several challenges for O&M in the offshore wind energy sector. These challenges can be grouped into four categories: issues related with industry immatureness; distance/water depth; weather window; and policy issues. The Delphi study identified three other major issues that lead to increased O&M costs: too many predefined rules that limit development; lack of coordinated planning of the different services offered at the wind farms; and lack of a common approach on how O&M should be managed strategically. Research limitations/implications The present study is based only on Danish respondents. Future research needs to include various respondents from different countries to identify country-specific contingencies. Practical implications The paper provides an overview of the O&M issues in the offshore wind energy sector to prioritize where future resources should be invested and, thus, reduce O&M costs. Originality/value This is the first paper on O&M issues that bridges both literature studies and industry expert opinions.

The scientific community agrees that climate change is happening, is largely human induced, and will have serious consequences for human health (Field and others 2014). The health consequences of climate variability and change are diverse, potentially affecting the burden of a wide range of health outcomes. Changing weather patterns can affect the magnitude and pattern of morbidity and mortality from extreme weather and climate events, and from changing concentrations of ozone, particulate matter, and aeroallergens (Smith and others 2014). Changing weather patterns and climatic shifts may also create environmental conditions that facilitate alterations in the geographic range, seasonality, and incidence of some infectious diseases in some regions, such as the spread of malaria into highland areas in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in water availability and agricultural productivity could affect undernutrition, particularly in some parts of Africa and Asia (Lloyd, Kovats, and Chalabi 2011). Although climate change will likely increase positive health outcomes in some regions, the overall balance will be detrimental for health and well-being, especially in low- and lower-middle-income countries that experience higher burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes (Smith and others 2014).The pathways between climate change and health outcomes are often complex and indirect, making attribution challenging. Climate change may not be the most important driver of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the next few decades but could be significant past the middle of this century. Climate change is a stress multiplier, putting pressure on vulnerable systems, populations, and regions. For example, temperature is associated with the incidence of some food- and water-borne diseases that are significant sources of childhood mortality (Smith and others 2014). Reducing the burden of these diseases requires improved access to safe water and improved sanitation. Poverty is a primary driver underlying the health risks of climate change (Smith and others 2014). Poverty alleviation programs could improve the capacity of health systems to manage risks and reduce the overall costs of a changing climate.Climate change entails other unique challenges:Significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) in the next few years will be critical to preventing more severe climate change later in the century, but they will have limited effects on weather patterns in the short term. In terms of costing, another complexity is that these policies and technologies are associated with short-term health benefits (Garcia-Menendez and others 2015).Reducing and managing health risks over the next few decades will require modifying health systems to prepare for, cope with, and recover from the health consequences of climate variability and change; these changes are part of what is termed adaptation. Adaptation will be required across the century, with the extent of mitigation being a key determinant of health systems’ ability to manage risks projected later in the century (Smith and others 2014). No matter the success of adaptation and mitigation, residual risks from climate change will burden health systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).Given these complexities, estimating the costs of managing the health risks of climate variability and change is not straightforward. The wide range of health outcomes potentially affected means counting (1) costs associated with increased health care and public health interventions for morbidity and mortality from a long list of climate-sensitive health outcomes; (2) costs associated with lost work days and lower productivity; and (3) costs associated with well-being. Costs could also accrue from repeated episodes of malaria, diarrhea, or other infectious diseases that affect childhood development and health in later life. Costs associated with actions taken in other sectors are also important for health, such as access to safe water and improved sanitation. A portion of the costs of managing the health risks associated with migrants and environmental refugees could be, but has not been, counted.Further, costs and benefits will be displaced over time, with costs associated with increased health burdens occurring now because of past greenhouse gas emissions and benefits occurring later in the century because of mitigation implemented in the next few years. A few preliminary estimates have been made of the costs of adaptation. However, more work is needed to understand how climate variability and change could affect the ability of health systems to manage risks over long temporal scales.This chapter reviews the health risks of climate variability and change, discusses key components of those risks, summarizes the attributes of climate-resilient health systems, provides an overview of the costs of increasing health resilience that arise from other sectors, reviews temporal and spatial scale issues, and summarizes key conclusions regarding the costs of the health risks of climate change.