Abstract
Theory of Change diagrams are commonly used within evaluation. Due to their popularity and flexibility, Theories of Change can vary greatly, from the nuanced and nested, through to simplified and linear. We present a methodology for building genuinely holistic, complexity-appropriate, system-based Theory of Change diagrams, using Participatory Systems Mapping as a starting point. Participatory System Maps provide a general-purpose resource that can be used in many ways; however, knowing how to turn their complex view of a system into something actionable for evaluation purposes is difficult. The methodology outlined in this article gives this starting point and plots a path through from systems mapping to a Theory of Change evaluators can use. It allows evaluators to develop practical Theories of Change that take into account feedbacks, wider context and potential negative or unexpected outcomes. We use the example of the energy trilemma map presented elsewhere in this special issue to demonstrate.
Highlights
Theory of Change diagrams are commonly used within evaluation
Theory of Change (ToC) diagrams have been widely used as a framework for designing and framing the evaluation of interventions in complex settings
We propose that the explicitly whole-systems approach of Participatory Systems Mapping can do much to help overcome the critiques of ToCs discussed above
Summary
Theory of Change diagrams are commonly used within evaluation. Due to their popularity and flexibility, Theories of Change can vary greatly, from the nuanced and nested, through to simplified and linear. Theory of Change (ToC) diagrams have been widely used as a framework for designing and framing the evaluation of interventions in complex settings They have been criticised for being overly ‘linear’ in the way they represent the steps involved in delivering an intervention, and for not sufficiently reflecting the actual behaviour of complex systems Unlike ToCs, system maps do not provide a clear framing of the way the intervention is intended to lead to impacts in a way that supports the design and implementation of an evaluation To explore how these two approaches can work together and complement one another, a team of complexity scholars and evaluation practitioners from the Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN) took a Participatory System Map that had already been created, and explored what was required to turn this into a useable ToC. This can, and we suggest should, be informed by the type of systems thinking introduced here
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