Building a More Effective Global Climate Regime Bottom-Up

Major US electric utility climate pledges have the potential to collectively reduce power sector emissions by one-third

Taking Stock of Strategies on Climate Change and the Way Forward: A Strategic Climate Change Framework for Australia

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011).

Imposing versus Enacting Commitments for the Long‐Term Energy Transition: Perspectives from the Firm

BackgroundPolicies to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can yield public health benefits by also reducing emissions of hazardous co-pollutants, such as air toxics and particulate matter. Socioeconomically disadvantaged communities are typically disproportionately exposed to air pollutants, and therefore climate policy could also potentially reduce these environmental inequities. We sought to explore potential social disparities in GHG and co-pollutant emissions under an existing carbon trading program—the dominant approach to GHG regulation in the US and globally.Methods and findingsWe examined the relationship between multiple measures of neighborhood disadvantage and the location of GHG and co-pollutant emissions from facilities regulated under California’s cap-and-trade program—the world’s fourth largest operational carbon trading program. We examined temporal patterns in annual average emissions of GHGs, particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, volatile organic compounds, and air toxics before (January 1, 2011–December 31, 2012) and after (January 1, 2013–December 31, 2015) the initiation of carbon trading. We found that facilities regulated under California’s cap-and-trade program are disproportionately located in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods with higher proportions of residents of color, and that the quantities of co-pollutant emissions from these facilities were correlated with GHG emissions through time. Moreover, the majority (52%) of regulated facilities reported higher annual average local (in-state) GHG emissions since the initiation of trading. Neighborhoods that experienced increases in annual average GHG and co-pollutant emissions from regulated facilities nearby after trading began had higher proportions of people of color and poor, less educated, and linguistically isolated residents, compared to neighborhoods that experienced decreases in GHGs. These study results reflect preliminary emissions and social equity patterns of the first 3 years of California’s cap-and-trade program for which data are available. Due to data limitations, this analysis did not assess the emissions and equity implications of GHG reductions from transportation-related emission sources. Future emission patterns may shift, due to changes in industrial production decisions and policy initiatives that further incentivize local GHG and co-pollutant reductions in disadvantaged communities.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first study to examine social disparities in GHG and co-pollutant emissions under an existing carbon trading program. Our results indicate that, thus far, California’s cap-and-trade program has not yielded improvements in environmental equity with respect to health-damaging co-pollutant emissions. This could change, however, as the cap on GHG emissions is gradually lowered in the future. The incorporation of additional policy and regulatory elements that incentivize more local emission reductions in disadvantaged communities could enhance the local air quality and environmental equity benefits of California’s climate change mitigation efforts.

_ Maritime transport accounts for around 3% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Well-to-Wake). These GHG emissions must be reduced by at least 50% in absolute values by 2050 to contribute to the ambitions of the Paris Agreement signed in 2015. Switching to zero-carbon fuels made from renewable sources (hydro, wind, or solar) is seen by many as the most promising option to deliver the desired GHG reductions. However, renewable energy is a scarce resource that gives a much larger GHG reduction spent within other sectors. This study explores how to reach the IMO 2050 GHG targets exclusively through energy efficiency measures. The results indicate that by combining wind-assisted ship propulsion (WASP) with a slender hull form, fuel consumption and GHG emissions can be reduced by 30–35%, at a negative abatement cost for speeds exceeding 8 knots. Where the cost saving increases with the speed because at higher speeds, the fuel accounts for a higher share of the total cost, which implies that the cost saving goes from zero at 8 knots, to 5% reduction at 11 knots average speed to 14% reduction of total cost with 15 knots average speed. In comparison, GHG reductions through zero-carbon fuels will increase transport costs by 50–200%. Introduction From the first days of our civilization, sea transport has enabled regional and global trades. Today, sea transport accounts for 80% of the global trade measured in ton-miles (UNCTAD 2021) and 3% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions measured Well-to-Wake (Lindstad et al. 2021). More than 40% of this sea trade is performed by dry bulkers, making them the real workhorses of the sea. Even though sea transport is energy efficient compared to other transport modes, all sectors need to reduce their GHG emissions by at least 50% in absolute values by 2050 to contribute to the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015). According to Bouman et al. (2017), the desired energy and GHG reductions can be achieved through: Design and other technical improvements of ships; Operational improvements; Fuels with zero or low GHG footprints; or a combination of these.

The shield method is a commonly used construction technique in subway tunnel engineering. However, studies on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions specifically in subway shield tunnel engineering are lacking. This study aims to investigate the GHG emission characteristics and GHG reduction pathways during the construction period of subway shield tunnels. Firstly, based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) method, a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission quantification model for the shield tunnel construction period was developed using a multi-level decomposition of construction. Then, the GHG emission level and intensity during the construction period of a case project are quantified, and its emission characteristics and GHG reduction potential points are assessed. Finally, a comprehensive path for GHG reduction in subway shield tunnel engineering is proposed. The research results indicate that constructing 1 km of subway shield tunnel can generate 19,294.28 t CO2eq. Among these, material production element dominates the emissions with a percentage of 89.05%, while transportation and mechanical construction elements contribute 1.81% and 9.14%, respectively. From the structure perspective, the main structure contributes 88.73% of total emissions, while the ancillary structure contributes 11.27%. Among them, the working shaft and tunnel segments are the main sources of emissions for the main structure, accounting for 23.65% and 65.08%, respectively. Connecting channel and end reinforcement are the main emission sources of the ancillary structures, accounting for 43.63% and 31.30%, respectively. These findings provide a scientific foundation for the environmentally friendly transformation of urban railway development regarding pursuing "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" strategic goals.

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

Objectives : In the context where the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock manure (LSM) account for more than half of the GHG emissions in the livestock sector, it is necessary to find alternatives to composting due to the decrease in agricultural land. This study aims to calculate the GHG reduction contribution and economic benefits when converting LSM into solid fuel as an alternative to traditional composting.Methods : The study compares the results of converting the entire LSM generated domestically into solid fuel replacing it with hard coal for fuel (HC-F), bituminous coal for raw materials (BC-R), bituminous coal for fuel (BC-F). The GHG reduction contribution is calculated following the domestic GHG inventory methodology, using the IPCC guidelines and the method for calculating carbon emission reduction effects. For the assessment of economic benefits, were evaluated by aggregating the impacts of reducing coal imports and GHG reduction benefits in line with EU-ETS standards. Economic benefits are assessed by combining the effects of avoiding coal imports and the GHG reduction benefits according to the EU-ETS.Results and Discussion : The GHG reduction effect was found to be highest when replacing with HC-F, and this is attributed to the lower heating value and higher GHG emission coefficient of HC-F compared to BC-R, and BC-F, indicating that the substitution with HC-F is most effective in terms of import avoidance. If 20% of the annual coal consumption in 2022 is replaced with solid fuel from LSM, the GHG reduction effects for coal substitution are 1.4% for HC-F, 2.1% for BC-R, and 1.9% for BC-F based on the LSM generation CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from biomass fuel are considered climate-neutral and are excluded from the national total emissions. Solid fuel from LSM serves as an alternative in addressing the GHG generated during the LSM treatment process, contributing to potential reduction. If all generated LSM is replaced with HC-F, BC-R, or BC-F, there are respective GHG reduction effects of 13,193,591 tGHG, 11,320,572 tGHG, and 11,226,331 tGHG.Conclusion In 2018, the livestock sector accounted for approximately 42% of the GHG emissions in the agricultural sector, totaling 9.4 million tCO<sub>2</sub> eq. Assuming the complete conversion of LSM into solid fuel for coal substitution, regardless of the type of coal replaced, it offsets the entire GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Currently, there is limited demand for the conversion of LSM into solid fuel due to a lack of proof and awareness, but with some coal-fired power plants scheduled for partial shutdown and the government considering energy options for LSM, a promising stage is anticipated in the future for the substitution and expanded use of solid fuel from LSM in place of coal in the coal fuel. Although it may not be possible to entirely replace the coal used in power plants and steel mills with solid fuel from LSM, it can be utilized by increasing the proportion of coal blending. However, even if not reported in the national GHG inventory, the treatment of pollutants generated by solid fuel combustion remains an ongoing challenge. As solid fuel becomes more commonplace in the future, a comprehensive assessment of the entire process, including potential environmental impacts throughout the life cycle, will be necessary to establish a basis for GHG reduction measures.

Dairy farming is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture. There are numerous scientific studies analysing GHG flows and testing GHG reduction methods in dairy farming, yet very few scientific papers cover all the relevant GHG flows. GHG flows that are difficult to quantify, such as C sequestration in soils, the effects of land-use change (LUC) or the energy input used to produce capital equipment, are not always considered.This paper describes the development and application of a model for energy and GHG accounting in dairy farming. This new model enables all relevant nutrient, energy and GHG flows to be modelled at farm level. This then forms the basis for system analysis and derivation of GHG mitigation strategies. The model was used on 18 organic and 18 con-ventional farms in Germany. Calculated CO2-eq emissions per kg of Energy Corrected Milk (ECM) were 995 g on average for organic farms (org) and 1,048 g on average for conventional farms (con). The largest contribution (55 % (org) and 43 % (con)) to total GHG emissions came from enteric methane emissions (549 g CO2-eq (kg ECM)-1 (org) and 449 g CO2-eq (kg ECM)-1 (con)). On the organic dairy farms, there was an increase in soil humus and therefore carbon storage and sequestration in soils, whereas the GHG emissions for the conventional farms included CO2 emissions from LUC due to soybean usage. The significantly higher energy input in the conventional systems resulted from the production of energy-intensive concentrates, mineral fertilisers and pesticides, and transportation (imported feed).This study shows that there are many factors that influence GHG emissions in dairy farming, and that these factors often interact with each other. An increase in productivity is one of several optimisation strategies; however, it must not be at the expense of productive lifetime or require an extremely high amount of concentrates. GHG reduction in dairy farming requires farm-specific optimisation approaches due to the heterogeneity of production systems.

This essay proposes an innovative institutional strategy for global climate protection, quite distinct from but ultimately complementary to the UNFCCC climate treaty negotiations. Our “building block” strategy relies on a variety of smaller-scale transnational cooperative arrangements, involving not only states, but also subnational jurisdictions, firms, and civil society organizations, to undertake activities whose primary goal is not climate mitigation but which will achieve greenhouse gas reductions as a byproduct. This strategy avoids the problems inherent in developing an enforceable, comprehensive treaty regime by mobilizing other incentives—including economic self-interest, energy security, cleaner air, and furtherance of international development— to motivate a range of actors to cooperate on actions that will also produce climate benefits. The strategy uses three specific models of regime formation (club, linkage, and dominant actor models) which emerge from economics, international relations, and organizational behavior, to develop a variety of transnational regimes that are generally self-enforcing and sustainable, avoiding the free rider and compliance problems endemic in collective action to provide public goods. These regimes will contribute to global climate action not only by achieving emissions reductions in the short term, but also by creating global webs of cooperation and trust, and by linking the building block regimes to the UNFCCC system through greenhouse gas monitoring and reporting systems. We argue that the building blocks regimes would thereby help secure eventual agreement on a comprehensive climate treaty.

For many developing countries, the land use sector, particularly agriculture and forestry, represents a large proportion of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making this sector a priority for GHG mitigation activities. Previous global surveys (e.g., IPCC 2000) as well as the most recent IPCC assessment report clearly indicate that the greatest technical potential for carbon sequestration and reductions of non-CO2 GHG emissions from the land use sector is in developing countries. Estimates that consider economic feasibility suggest that agriculture and forestry together provide among the greatest opportunities for short-term and low-cost mitigation measures across all sectors of the global economy1 (IPCC 2007). In addition, it is widely recognized that the ecosystem changes entailed by most mitigation practices, i.e., building soil organic matter, reducing losses and tightening nutrient cycles, more efficient production systems and preserving native vegetation, are well aligned with goals of increasing food security and rural development as well as buffering land use systems against climate change (Lal 2004). Hence, there is growing interest in jump-starting the capacity for broad-based engagement in agriculturally-based GHG mitigation projects in developing countries.

Author(s): Kendall, Alissa; Harvey, John; Butt, Ali A.; Lozano, Mark T.; Saboori, Arash; Kim, Changmo | Abstract: Local governments have steadily increased their initiative to address global climate change, and many present their proposed strategies through climate action plans (CAPs). This study conducts a literature review on current local approaches to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction strategies by assessing CAPs in California and presents common strategies in the transportation sector along with useful tools. One identified limitation of many CAPs is the omission of quantitative economic cost and emissions data for decision-making on the basis of cost-effectiveness. Therefore, this study proposes a framework for comparing strategies based on their life cycle emissions mitigation potential and costs. The results data can be presented in a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) to allow for side-by-side comparison of considered strategies. Researchers partnered with Yolo and Unincorporated Los Angeles Counties to analyze 7 strategies in the transportation and energy sectors (five and two, respectively). A MACC was subsequently developed for each county. Applying the life cycle approach revealed strategies that had net cost savings over their life cycle, indicating there are opportunities for reducing emissions and costs. The MACC also revealed that some emissions reduction strategies in fact increased emissions on a life cycle basis. Applying the MACC framework to two case study jurisdictions illustrated both the feasibility and challenges of including quantitative analysis in their decision-making process. An additional barrier to using the MACC framework in the context of CAPs, is the mismatch between a life cycle and annual accounting basis for GHG emissions. Future work could explore more efficient data collection, alternative scopes of emissions for reporting, and environmental justice concerns.View the NCST Project Webpage

Electrified vehicles, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from personal transportation by shifting energy demand from gasoline to electricity. GHG reduction potential depends on vehicle design, adoption, driving and charging patterns, charging infrastructure, and electricity generation mix. We construct an optimization model to study these factors by determining optimal design of conventional vehicles (CVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), PHEVs, and BEVs and optimal allocation of vehicle designs and charging infrastructure in the fleet for minimum lifecycle GHG emissions over a range of scenarios. We focus on vehicles with similar size and acceleration to a Toyota Prius under urban EPA driving conditions. We find that under today’s U.S. average grid mix, the vehicle fleet allocated for minimum GHG emissions includes HEVs and PHEVs with ~30 miles (48 km) of electric range. Allocating only CVs, HEVs, PHEVs, or BEVs will produce 86%, 1%, 0%, or 13+% more life cycle GHG emissions, respectively. Unlike BEVs, PHEVs do consume some gasoline; however, PHEVs can power a large portion of vehicle miles on electrical energy while accommodating infrequent long trips without need for a large battery pack, with its corresponding production and weight implications. Availability of workplace charging for 90% of vehicles optimistically reduces optimized GHG emissions by 0.5%. Under decarbonized grid scenarios, larger battery packs are more competitive and reduce life cycle GHG emissions significantly. Future work will relax modeling assumptions and address life cycle cost and cost-effectiveness of GHG reductions.

Problem: Mitigating the production of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and developing strategies to prepare for changes in climate is an important challenge to the transportation planning profession. Purpose: This article identifies the research needed to inform planning practice on the relationship between transportation and climate change. Methods: I chaired the panel that prepared a recent Transportation Research Board special report on research needs related to reducing GHG emissions from the transportation sector and adapting transportation systems to climate change. The report considered needs both for short-term policy guidance and for longer-term research into fundamental relationships between GHG emissions, climate change, and transportation. Here, I review those findings and highlight the questions of greatest importance to planning. Results and conclusions: Additional research is needed on: the range of GHG impacts; how and whether to consider indirect GHG impacts; the sensitivity of GHG emission estimates to variations in critical assumptions; the range of GHG reduction strategies that should normally be analyzed; the level of GHG analysis appropriate for small-scale planning studies; whether to use lifecycle or operational GHG; how to define a preferred scenario; the extent to which reducing GHG emissions affects other goals and priorities; and the costs and tradeoffs associated with options for mitigating GHG emissions. This research should yield policy direction for planning practice on: how to rank GHG reduction compared to other transportation goals; what state or federal requirements for GHG planning will be and how they will relate to regional and local policy goals and constraints; what new information analysis and evaluation should produce; what changes will be needed in data collection, models, and methodologies to yield this; and whether changes will be needed in interagency consultation and public involvement. Takeaway for practice: I recommend a comprehensive research program that addresses these questions, reduces uncertainty about relationships between transportation and GHG emissions, and informs planners and others about the consequences of potential transportation strategies. Research support: None.