Bridging science and practice on multi-hazard risk drivers: stakeholder insights from five pilot studies in Europe

Recent findings indicate an increasing frequency of multiple hazards and their interrelationships (such as triggering, compound, and consecutive events) across Europe, highlighting the urgency for resilience enhancement. This shift demands a transition from focusing solely on single-hazard risks to embracing multi-hazard risk assessment and management strategies. Despite substantial progress in understanding these complex events, the predominant approach still concentrates on individual hazards (like floods, earthquakes, droughts), with a relatively narrow grasp of the actual needs of stakeholders on-site. Addressing this gap, our study aims to explore the challenges of shifting towards multi-hazard risk management from the viewpoint of European stakeholders. Through five workshops conducted in various European locations (Danube Region, Veneto Region, Scandinavia, North Sea, and Canary Islands) and a specialized expert workshop, we pinpoint five key challenges: governance issues, understanding of multi-hazards and multi-risks, current disaster risk management practices, bridging scientific knowledge to policy and practice, and the lack of data. These challenges are interdependent and must be approached comprehensively, as the legacy of existing practices presents a significant obstacle in moving from single-hazard to multi-hazard risk management. Looking ahead, we identify several promising strategies to address some of these challenges, including novel methods for multi-hazard characterization, a unified terminology, and an all-encompassing framework to guide multi-hazard risk assessment and management. We advocate the necessity to broaden our perspective beyond natural hazards, incorporating other types of threats for a more complete multi-hazard risk understanding, and to integrate multi-hazard risk reduction within broader developmental objectives.

The latest evidence suggests that multi-hazards and their interrelationships (e.g., triggering, compound, and consecutive hazards) are becoming more frequent across Europe, underlying a need for resilience building by moving from single-hazard-focused to multi-hazard risk assessment and management. Although significant advancements were made in our understanding of these events, mainstream practice is still focused on risks due to single hazards (e.g., flooding, earthquakes, droughts), with a limited understanding of the stakeholder needs on the ground. To overcome this limitation, this paper sets out to understand the challenges for moving towards multi-hazard risk management through the perspective of European stakeholders. Based on five workshops across different European pilots (Danube Region, Veneto Region, Scandinavia, North Sea, and Canary Islands) and an expert workshop, we identify five prime challenges: i) governance, ii) knowledge of multi-hazards and multi-risks, iii) existing approaches to disaster risk management, iv) translation of science to policy and practice, and v) lack of data. These challenges are inherently linked and cannot be tackled in isolation with path dependency posing a significant hurdle in transitioning from single- to multi-hazard risk management. Going forward, we identify promising approaches for overcoming some of the challenges, including emerging approaches for multi-hazard characterisation, a common understanding of terminology, and a comprehensive framework for guiding multi-hazard risk assessment and management. We argue for a need to think beyond natural hazards and include other threats in creating a comprehensive overview of multi-hazard risks, as well as promoting thinking of multi-hazard risk reduction in the context of larger development goals.

Navigating the complexities of multi-hazard risks poses a significant challenge, requiring a holistic understanding that extends beyond theoretical frameworks. Although recent frameworks have contributed greatly to theoretical advancements, a critical gap remains in providing practical insights for on-the-ground stakeholders. These stakeholders, including policymakers, decision-makers, and practitioners are often responsible for preparing and dealing with the risks arising from multi-hazard events. Within the MYRIAD-EU project, the objective is to empower stakeholders on the ground with a systemic approach encompassing multi-risk and multi-sector assessment and management. To unravel the intricate web of systemic risk interdependencies across and within Europe and facilitate an improved assessment and management of multi-hazard risks, several comprehensive semi-structured interviews were conducted within the Pilot regions of the MYRIAD-EU project. These interviews spanned diverse geographic, hazard, and sectoral domains. The Pilot regions are the Canary Islands, the Veneto region, the Danube region, Scandinavia, and the North Sea. The insights obtained from these interviews, both qualitative and quantitative, including perspectives from both land and sea, offer a nuanced understanding of hazard combinations, vulnerability characteristics, changes in exposure and vulnerability over time, and the synergies and asynergies inherent in disaster risk reduction measures across Europe. Our findings aim to bridge the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical applications, providing valuable information for stakeholders to enhance their preparedness and response strategies in the face of multi-hazard risks. At the same time, the results will be used to develop a better understanding about the dynamic vulnerability and exposure of multi-(hazard-)risk.

The urban development is correlated to urban economic growth. This situation often produces negative impacts on the environment, such as the emergence of disaster risks. Oftentimes, disaster risk existence is not sufficiently considered in spatial planning. Consequently, urban development does not support the efforts of urban disaster risk reduction and adaptation. This paper discusses the synchronization between spatial planning, and multi-hazard risk reduction and adaptation. Surakarta City was selected for the research case. This city has a multi-hazard risk including flood, fire, and traffic accidents. This paper evaluated the synchronization of the multi-hazard risk to the spatial planning of Surakarta City. This research used a deductive approach, and it is documentary research. The main data were based on urban institutional documents. Furthermore, the descriptive analysis technique wasused for exploring the data and information. The research result explains that the procedural evaluation shows the most part of the integration process of the multi-hazard risk assessment that has been conducted, although, on another side, the substantive evaluation indicates that the lack of criteria integration for the multi-hazard risk and the urban spatial planning takes place.

Understanding risk components—such as vulnerability, exposure, and hazard interactions—requires approaches that integrate diverse perspectives and data sources. This abstract presents insights from the MYRIAD-EU and EO4Multihazards projects, which combine top-down Earth Observation (EO) data with bottom-up stakeholder-driven insights to enhance multi-(hazard-)risk assessment and management.Top-down EO methods, including satellite imagery and remote sensing, provide large-scale data on hazard monitoring, environmental changes, and exposure dynamics. Complementing this, stakeholder interviews in five pilot regions (Veneto, Canary Islands, Scandinavia, Danube, and North Sea) capture local knowledge of risk drivers, vulnerabilities, and hazard interactions. Integrating these approaches bridges critical gaps, such as the dynamic nature of vulnerabilities and their socio-economic dimensions.This combined methodology creates a more nuanced, context-sensitive understanding of multi-(hazard-)risk. It highlights the importance of incorporating qualitative, ground-level insights into traditionally quantitative frameworks. Achievements include better identification of vulnerability drivers, improved data integration, and tailored strategies for local and regional risk reduction.By uniting bottom-up and top-down perspectives, this approach provides a comprehensive framework for understanding risk dynamics, fostering collaboration across disciplines, and advancing adaptive, inclusive strategies for disaster risk reduction in an evolving climate.

Mobility between European regions has intensified in the last years. Migration from peripheries such as Eastern Europe to prosperous economic regions in the European core can especially be observed. Intra-EU mobility presents a major opportunity for young Europeans, but also bears a challenge to many European regions, representing a threat to social, economic, and political cohesion within the EU. The following chapter introduces a project that took mobile young people in the Danube Region and the arising implications for sending and receiving locations as a starting point. In the INTERREG-Transnational project "YOUMIG", the goal was to gain a better understanding of the phenomena of youth mobility and to find strategies in order to better deal with the challenges arising from it and with discontent around intra-EU mobility.

South Africa, like many emerging economies, grapples with the challenges of rapid urbanisation, unequal access to resources, and historical spatial inequalities. Addressing these issues requires a multifaceted approach that reimagines urban real estate development as a catalyst for positive social change. This paper explores the imperative of inclusive urban real estate development in South Africa and presents innovative strategies to promote equity, accessibility, and sustainability in urban environments. Following a quantitative inquiry technique, primary data was gathered from 109 built environment professionals with experience in sustainable urban development. To support this, descriptive and inferential statistics, particularly exploratory factor analysis (EFA), were used. According to the descriptive analysis using the mean score (MS) ranking technique, the development of affordable housing was one of the higher up-front innovative strategies for reshaping real estate development. Ensuring objectivity in city planning, re-engineering the city streets and buildings to create a safer environment were among the highly ranked strategies. The EFA further demonstrated that “urban redevelopment”, “government regulations”, “spatial planning”, “urban policy” and “diversification” were the underlying groups of new approaches for inclusive development. Implementing these innovative strategies, South Africa can move towards a more inclusive and equitable urban landscape, where urban real estate development becomes a force for positive social change, fostering sustainable economic growth and improving the quality of life for all citizens. This research contributes to the ongoing dialogue on urban development in South Africa and offers actionable insights for policymakers, developers, and community stakeholders invested in shaping more inclusive cities.

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate urban land-use dynamics and landscape diversity within the 10-kilometer coastal strip of the Canary Islands between 2012 and 2018, aiming to inform more sustainable and adaptive territorial planning in insular environments. Theoretical Framework: This research is grounded in landscape ecology theory and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which provide a solid basis for understanding spatial and environmental context of urban development and landscape heterogeneity. Method: An integrative methodological framework was adopted, combining high-resolution imagery land-cover data with advanced geospatial analysis and landscape metrics. Shannon’s Diversity Index (SHDI) and Shannon’s Evenness Index (SHEI) were applied to quantify changes in urban- land-use classes and assess landscape heterogeneity and balance. Results and Discussion: The results revealed a general trend of urban expansion and infrastructure growth, especially in Tenerife and Gran Canaria. However, landscape diversity and evenness remained relatively high, indicating urban development with landscape homogenization. Smaller islands showed stable land-use patterns, reflecting effective adaptive governance and community engagement. These findings highlight the importance of integrating landscape metrics into monitoring frameworks to detect unsustainable trends and guide policy interventions. Research Implications: This study provides insights for policymakers and planners on incorporating landscape diversity metrics into land-use planning and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in insular contexts. Originality/Value: This research contributes to the literature by offering a comprehensive, spatially explicit assessment of urban land-use change and landscape diversity in a sensitive insular environment, delivering actionable insights for sustainable development and adaptive governance.

This dissertation examines the urban planning and development strategies for Hindaun City's North Zone through the creation of a Zonal Development Plan (ZDP) for 2036. Hindaun City, a significant urban center in Rajasthan, is experiencing rapid population growth and urbanization, necessitating a comprehensive and sustainable development plan. The Master Plan for Hindaun City 2036 provides a broad framework, and this dissertation delves into the specific proposals for the North Zone, known as Zone A. The research employs a multi-method approach, including Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, analysis of existing conditions, stakeholder consultations, and policy reviews. The study identifies critical areas for intervention in residential, commercial, industrial, and recreational sectors, proposing detailed land use plans and infrastructure improvements. Special attention is given to enhancing social and physical infrastructure, addressing environmental sustainability, and ensuring equitable development. Key findings reveal that while Hindaun City has made significant strides in urban development, challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, unplanned growth, and environmental degradation persist. The proposed ZDP aims to address these issues through targeted policies and strategic interventions. The dissertation concludes with recommendations for implementing the ZDP effectively, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring, stakeholder engagement, and adaptive management to ensure the plan's success. By providing a detailed case study of Hindaun City's North Zone, this dissertation contributes to the broader discourse on urban planning and development in rapidly growing cities. The findings and recommendations offer valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and researchers focused on sustainable urban development Key Words: urbanization , GIS , ZDP , policymakers

The occurrence of multiple hazards poses significant risks to both human lives and assets. These risks often surpass those associated with individual hazards as they result from the interaction of natural hazards through simultaneous, cascading, or cumulative incidents. In several European regions, vulnerable to a range of climatic extremes, the society and environment are expected to undergo significant impacts in the next few decades. This is attributed to the rising frequency and severity of multi-hazard events, which are closely tied to changing climatic conditions.In this context, the aim of this work is to develop and test a new framework for multi-hazard risk indicators that are suitable for use in risk-based assessments and decisions making. Indicators are used within different disciplines, offering insights into hazards, risk, resilience, vulnerability and other impacts related to climate change, amongst other factors. Such indicators can be used to model interacting hazards and cascading impacts within risk assessments, including a decision support system for multi-hazard disaster risk. This work, supported by a systematic literature review grounded on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), introduces a framework for a suite of simple and usable multi-hazard indicators that balance complexity and usability to enable their uptake within natural hazard risk assessments (e.g., multi-hazard/risk rate). We adopt the following definition “Indicators are observable and measurable characteristics that can be used to simplify information to help understand the state of a concept or phenomenon, and/or to monitor it over time to show changes or progress towards achieving a specific change”. The development of these indicators prioritises the needs of end-users in disaster risk management, aiming to overcome limitations associated with their evolution being driven by climate scientists, without considering sectoral impacts or risk-based assessments. The framework for indicator development can contribute valuable insights for progressing multi-hazard risk management policies globally, particularly in regions experiencing an increased susceptibility to multi-hazard events.The research has been carried out within the framework of the Horizon Europe project MEDiate (Multi-hazard and risk-informed system for Enhanced local and regional Disaster risk management). The primary objective of this project is to create a decision-support system (DSS) for disaster risk management that takes into account the complexities of multiple interacting natural hazards and their cascading impacts. The framework is implemented on four interactive multi-hazard pairs—compounding coastal and riverine flooding, extreme heat and drought, extreme wind and precipitation, and extreme precipitation and landslides—in four European testbeds: Oslo (Norway), Nice (France), Essex (UK), and Múlaþing (Iceland), respectively.

With increasing frequency and severity of climate risks, communities must further adopt Climate Risk Management (CRM) strategies. As a key component, Climate Risk Assessments (CRA) identify and evaluate climate risks across hazards, areas and sectors. Various CRA frameworks have been proposed and implemented by research, policy and practice. One key gap identified is the effective integration of quantitative and qualitative aspects in CRA to develop comprehensive results as well as ensure integration of various perspectives. For this, it is necessary to understand how quantitative and qualitative risk aspects come together in combined approaches to support and balance each other.In the context of the EU Horizon 2021 project CLIMAAX, we developed a comprehensive CRA framework adapted for the European regional and community level. The Framework unites approaches for risk quantification (provided in the CLIMAAX Handbook) and at the same time encourages qualitative risk input through participation of experts, stakeholders and vulnerable groups. Our approach seeks to respond to needs, recent advancements and best practices in the CRA field by integrating insights from European National Adaptation Plans and Strategies, peer-reviewed literature, as well as existing CRA frameworks and international standards. The framework was collaboratively developed with five European pilot regions and considers survey responses from the CLIMAAX Community of Practice to ensure feasibility and applicability while upholding adaptive flexibility.The CRA Framework is operationalized through a five-step assessment cycle (Scoping, Risk Exploration, Risk Analysis, Key Risk Assessment, Monitoring & Evaluation). These steps are supported by principles of social justice and equity, participatory processes, and technical considerations such as future scenarios. In the quantitative Risk Analysis step the Framework is strongly supported by multiple risk workflows estimating climate risk. The other four steps provide entry points for qualitative risk assessment perspectives, thus requiring translation and interdisciplinary thinking. We innovatively contextualise the risk analysis outcome as quantitative and qualitative aspects are processed together. Through an indicator-based evaluation of risk severity, risk urgency and resilience capacity we consider Key Risks in a multi-hazard risk context.By collecting data from users within the CLIMAAX project, we will assess how qualitative as well as semi-quantitative risk perspectives can benefit and complement quantitative risk estimations as applied in the risk workflows. Further, by effectively integrating diverse perspectives, the framework aims to bridge the translation gap between risk assessment and CRM practices towards fostering resilience.

Recent disasters have demonstrated the growing challenges faced by society as a result of multi-hazards and compound events. The impacts of such disasters differ significantly from those caused by single hazard disasters: often the impacts of a multi-hazard disaster exceed those of the sum of the impacts of the individual hazards. Recognizing this complexity, the scientific community and international organizations, such as the UNDRR, have been advocating for a more integrated approach in multi-(hazard)risk research. This requires bridging across individual hazard types, but also learning from methodological advances made in neighbouring research fields such as the compound events community.This talk aims to highlight recent advances in assessing the complexities of multi-(hazard)risk and discusses opportunities for further enhancing our modeling capabilities through multidisciplinary collaboration. A crucial challenge of modelling compound and multi-hazard risk, is that of the spatiotemporal dynamics of risk. This includes for example, an improved understanding of post-disaster recovery after multi-hazard disasters and the role of (changing) local contexts within which disasters take place such as the dynamics of socioeconomic vulnerability and the likelihood of post-disaster disease outbreaks. Embracing these challenges and opportunities can support more comprehensive and effective disaster risk management strategies in the future.

Many parts of the globe face numerous natural disasters, including terrible earthquakes, terrible landslides, epidemics, drought and/or flooding. In recent decades, disasters have impacted the world becoming more. A higher occurrence of intense hydro-meteorological activities, most likely due to climate change, and the rise of susceptible populations, may be the key reasons for this progression. Risk eradication approach, with an accent on risk evaluation, risk mapping and threat assessment, which both have a significant spatial aspect, should be achieved further in order to reduce disaster menace. Integration of remote sensing products and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has converted an automated, well-developed and effective disaster risk management technique today. The present chapter highlighted a critical and detailed overview of recent multi-hazard risk analysis performed using remotely sensed data and geospatial techniques, as it permits participants to be intricate in numerous phases of prototypical development. This chapter also represented the methodology of machine learning and crowd sourcing, particularly for multi-hazard modelling, as a very valuable tool for risk management and disaster vindication.KeywordsRisk mappingGISMachine learningCrowd sourcingDisaster management

Geo-tourism, an emerging field that focuses on the natural and cultural heritage of a region, offers a unique opportunity to promote sustainable tourism and foster local economic development. This study aims to assess the geo-tourism potential Danube region in Serbia, a natural diverse and culturally rich region of Serbia, Western Balkan, and Southeastern Europe, using a comprehensive methodology that incorporates geo-statistical and machine learning tools. A dataset comprising various geographical, and cultural factors was collected from reliable sources, including, protected areas, tourism statistics, cultural heritage inventories and satellite imagery. Geo-statistical analyses were performed to identify spatial patterns and relationships among the collected variables. Techniques such as spatial autocorrelation, hotspot analysis, and interpolation methods were employed to reveal concentrations of geo-tourism resources, hotspots, clusters, and areas in need of conservation. The results of this study provided valuable insights into the geo-tourism potential of the Danube region. The spatial analysis revealed several hotspots. Machine learning models accurately predicted tourism demand based on variables such as accessibility, cultural heritage, and natural landscapes. These findings can guide policymakers that, using the power of geo-statistical and machine learning tools, the Danube region in Serbia can unlock its full geo-tourism potential.

Ecosystem services' (ES) assessments can inform sustainability policies but often translate poorly into practical decision‐making due to their disconnection from local challenges. Problem framing is a crucial step in improving the operationalization of ecosystem studies. First, the study analyzes the challenges and opportunities for sustainability in three European outermost regions: the Canary Islands, French Guiana, and Reunion Island. Second, it proposes strategies to make use of ES assessments as a means to address these sustainability issues. We used a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis for strategic planning, extended with a PESTEL analysis, standing for Political, Economic, Socio‐cultural, Technological, Environmental, Legal, and Regulatory. Semi‐structured interviews (n = 38) were conducted to identify PESTEL factors facilitating or impeding sustainability in the case studies. Interviews were coded into PESTEL factors before being synthesized and reported into SWOT matrices. We suggest seven ESs implementation strategies addressing these challenges from these SWOT matrices. Finally, this paper highlights the potential contributions of ES‐based strategies to achieving multiple United Nations' 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). On average, the strategies are expected to affect the delivery of six ESs. The suggested strategies are expected to contribute to the achievement of SDGs 15 (Life on Land), 2 (Zero Hunger), 14 (Life Below Water), and 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). These results pinpoint the key factors to consider, through stakeholder consultation, when designing a practical ES study.