Abstract
Abstract Abstract #6076 Background: Over the next 20 years, important demographic changes in the US will emerge, with the number of older and non-white Americans increasing dramatically. Though breast cancer incidence is known to vary by both age and race, the projected impact of impending population changes on breast cancer incidence has never been quantified. To delineate the future burden of breast cancer, we calculated population-based projections of breast cancer incidence through 2030.
 Material and Methods: SEER data provided current age- and race-specific incidence rates for invasive or in situ female breast cancer. Age- and race-specific projections for the US population through 2030 were derived from Census Bureau data. Assuming stable race- and age-adjusted incidence, the total number of breast cancer cases by race and age through 2030 was estimated.
 Results: From 2008 to 2030, the total number of breast cancer cases is expected to increase from 264,000 to 357,000. Of cases diagnosed in 2030, 60% will occur in women ages 65 and older. This represents a 67% increase in the number of breast cancer cases in women age 65 and over (from 127,000 to 212,000), compared to a 6% increase in women under age 65 (from 137,000 to 145,000). In 2030, 19% of all cases will occur in non-whites, representing a 70% increase in non-whites (from 40,000 to 68,000), compared to a 29% increase in whites (from 224,000 to 289,000). While cases in older non-white women currently represent only 13% of older patients, they will comprise 17% by 2030.
 Discussion: With major demographic shifts on the horizon, an imminent wave of older breast cancer patients will impose a substantial burden on the US healthcare system. Efforts to expand capacity, contain cost, and define optimal treatment for older patients are urgently needed. Moreover, the projected increase in the percentage of breast cancer in non-whites heightens the importance of efforts to identify and minimize health care disparities.
 
 Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(2 Suppl):Abstract nr 6076.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
