Breaking the silence: leveraging social interaction data to identify high-risk suicide users online using network analysis and machine learning

Abstract

Suicidal thought and behavior (STB) is highly stigmatized and taboo. Prone to censorship, yet pervasive online, STB risk detection may be improved through development of uniquely insightful digital markers. Focusing on Sanctioned Suicide, an online pro-choice suicide forum, this work derived 17 egocentric network features to capture dynamics of social interaction and engagement within this uniquely uncensored community. Using network data generated from over 3.2 million unique interactions of N = 192 individuals, n = 48 of which were determined to be highest risk users (HRUs), a machine learning classification model was trained, validated, and tested to predict HRU status. Model prediction dynamics were analyzed using introspection techniques to uncover patterns in feature influence and highlight social phenomena. The model achieved a test AUC = 0.73 ([0.61, 0.85], 95% CI), suggesting that network-based socio-behavioral patterns of online interaction can signal for heightened suicide risk. Transitivity, density, and in-degree centrality were among the most important features driving this performance. Moreover, predicted HRUs tended to be targets of social exchanges with lesser frequency and possessed egocentric networks with “small world” network properties. Through the implementation of an underutilized method on an unlikely data source, findings support future incorporation of network-based social interaction features in descriptive, predictive, and preventative STB research.