Abstract
Economic conditions have deteriorated rapidly as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. GDP in 2020 is projected to decline by 5 percent (a 7½ percentage point reduction relative to pre-crisis) due to plummeting external and domestic demand, aggravated by a significant slowdown in remittances. The fiscal balance in 2020 is expected to drop by 6½ percentage points of GDP, to a deficit of 4½ percent of GDP, and the current account deficit to widen to about 7½ percent of GDP due to a decline in exports and remittances. The strong fiscal position, achieved over the last few years, provides room for a temporarily increased deficit. The projections are subject to an unprecedented high level of uncertainty.
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