Abstract

Higher penetration of wind power generation will introduce an unprecedented amount of uncertainty into power grid that might affect the risk assessment of cascading failures. To reflect the impact of wind power uncertainty, this paper proposes a model of cascading outages based on fault chain, in which stochastic power flow is introduced to simulate cascading failures in power grid. The system blackout risk index is calculated by synthesizing results in different wind power scenarios generated by fuzzy clustering method. Case studies on the improved IEEE 39-bus system verify the rationality of the proposed model and analyze the impacts of wind power forecasting error on the risk of power grid cascading outages.

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