Biometeorological forecasts for health surveillance and prevention of meteor-tropic effects.

Abstract

An early method of biometeorological forecasts was developed for Cuba during the late 90s. It was based on the relationship between the daily occurrence of massive health crisis and the magnitude of the 24-h differences of partial density of oxygen in the air (PODA index). Ten years later, applying new technological facilities, a new model was developed in order to offer operational biometeorological forecast to Cuban health institutions. After a satisfactory validation process, the official bioforecast service to health institutions in Villa Clara province began on February of 2012. The effectiveness had different success levels: for the bronchial asthma crisis (94%), in the hypertensive crisis (88%), with the cerebrovascular illnesses (85%), as well as migraines (82%) and in case of cardiovascular diseases (75%) were acceptable. Since 2008, the application of the model was extended to other regions of the world, including some national applications. Furthermore, it allowed the beginning of regional monitoring of meteor-tropic effects, following the occurrence and movement of areas with higher weather contrasts, defined according to the normalized scale of PODA index. The paper describes the main regional results already available, with emphasis in the observed meteor-tropic effects increasing in all regions during recent years. It coincides with the general increase of energy imbalance in the whole climate system. Finally, the paper describes the current development of new global biometeorological forecast services.