Abstract
This chapter examines the impact of expanding biofuels production and use on agricultural commodity markets. It also examines the continued biofuels expansion under declining energy prices. The analysis uses a Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model, a dynamic multi-commodity, multi-country global trade model of the agriculture sector to analyze the interaction between biofuel, crop, and livestock sectors. The ability of countries to achieve their energy goals will be affected by future direction of petroleum prices. A 30% decline in petroleum prices (absent of mandates) would result in rapid decline in biofuel use worldwide accompanied by a decline in feedstock and biofuel prices.
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