Beyond the Demographic Transition

Abstract

In the past 30 years there has been a decline of death rates in deve loping countries and a rise and subsequent decline in birth rates in some developed countries. The developed countries appear to have gone beyond the demographic transition and to have entered an era in which fertility fluctuates mainly in response to influences other than those that reduced birth rates during the preceding 3 centuries. The principal features of the rise and decline in fertility since the lows of the 1930s were reached are reviewed. It is concluded that improved effectiveness of fertility control within marriage may have facilitated the movement toward younger marriage younger childbearing and higher proportions marrying and having children but that improvements in technology alone are not sufficient to account for these trends. The postwar movement toward younger marriage and childbearing was probably also influenced by improved economic conditions and by the assumption of greater responsibility by national goevernments for many of the costs associated with parenthood. Couples now respond to varying social and economic conditions more by changing the ages at which they marry and have children than by changing the total number of children they have. Countries in Eastern Europe went through the demographic transition late r than did the countries of Western Europe. It may be that the trend toward earlier childbearing is occurring later in Italy Portugal and Spain than in the countries of Northern and Western Europe. Further comparative studies are recommended to gain further information on recent trends in fertility.