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Beyond Residential Ambient Concentrations: Quantifying Exposure Error and Advancing Personal PM2.5 Prediction with a Scalable Modeling Framework.

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TL;DR

This study quantifies the substantial errors (39-48%) in using ambient PM2.5 data as proxies for personal exposure and develops a scalable modeling framework integrating ambient, meteorological, and personal data. The best model (Random Forest, R2=0.87) effectively predicts personal exposure, with ambient PM2.5 as the key predictor, improving exposure assessment accuracy for large-scale epidemiological studies.

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Accurate assessment of personal PM2.5 exposure is essential but challenging in large-scale epidemiology, as conventional residential ambient data often lead to exposure misclassification. This study aimed to quantify errors in ambient data proxies and develop a scalable modeling framework for personal exposure prediction using readily available data. We conducted a panel study with 12 adults from three diverse Chinese cities, collecting 4571 person-hours of personal PM2.5 measurements. These were compared against three ambient data sources to quantify relative errors. We developed a modeling framework integrating ambient concentrations, meteorological variables, and basic personal characteristics, incorporating systematic preprocessing, feature engineering, variable selection, and multialgorithm comparison optimized through hyperparameter tuning and cross-validation. Results showed substantial personal-ambient exposure discrepancies, with relative errors of 39-48% for the daily average level. The framework successfully predicted personal exposure, with a Random Forest model using daily monitoring-station data achieving the highest performance (R2 = 0.87). SHAP analysis identified ambient PM2.5 as the dominant predictor, with personal traits and meteorology also contributing significantly. This work provides a validated, end-to-end modeling framework that moves beyond ambient proxies, offering a standardized workflow to refine personal exposure estimates in large cohorts and enhance the validity of air pollution health studies.

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Comparative analysis of ambient, in-home, and personal exposures reveals associations between breathing zone pollutant levels and asthma exacerbations in high-risk children
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  • Respiratory Research
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BackgroundAir pollution is associated with poor asthma outcomes in children. However, most studies focus on ambient or indoor monitor pollution levels. Few studies evaluate breathing zone exposures, which may be more consequential for asthma outcomes.MethodsWe measured personal exposures to NO2, O3, PM10 and PM10 constituents, including black carbon (BC), brown carbon (BrC), environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), endotoxins, and \U0001d6fd-glucan, in a cohort of children with exacerbation-prone asthma for 72 h using wearable monitors. Personal exposures were compared to concentrations from in-home monitors in the child’s bedroom and ambient EPA air quality monitoring using correlation analyses. Personal exposures were tested for association with lung function and compared between participants with and without well-controlled asthma and signs of exacerbation in the prior 60 days using censored regression with robust standard errors.Results81 children completed 219 monitoring sessions. Personal NO2, O3, and PM10 exposures ranged from < 2 to 99.1 parts per billion (ppb), < 1.5 to 23.3 ppb, and < 1 to 141.9 \U0001d707g/m3, respectively. Personal endotoxin ranged from 0.04 to 101.3 EU/m3, \U0001d6fd-glucan from 18.5 to 1,162 pg/m3, BC from < 0.3 to 46.9 \U0001d707g/m3, BrC from < 0.3 to 6.1 \U0001d707g/m3, and ETS from < 0.3 to 56.6 \U0001d707g/m3. Correlations between personal and ambient PM10, NO2, and O3 concentrations were poor, whereas personal PM10 and NO2 correlated with in-home concentrations. In-home monitoring less frequently detected BrC (Personal:79% > lower limit of detection, Home:36.8%) and ETS (Personal:83.7%, Home:4.1%) than personal exposures, and detected BC in participants without personal exposure (Personal: 26.5%, Home: 96%). Personal exposures were not significantly associated with lung function or daily asthma control. Children requiring corticosteroid treatment for asthma exacerbation within 60 days of exposure monitoring had 1.98, 2.21 and 2.04 times higher personal exposures to BrC (p < 0.001; 95% CI: 1.43–2.37), ETS (p = 0.007; 95% CI: 1.25–3.91), and endotoxin (p = 0.012; 95% CI: 1.14–3.68), respectively.ConclusionsAlthough in-home monitoring was correlated with personal exposure to PM10 and NO2, in-home detection of ETS and BrC was not associated with personal exposures. Personal PM10 exposures in general, as well as BrC, ETS, and endotoxin levels were associated with recent childhood asthma exacerbations.Clinical trial numberNot applicable.

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Personal PM2.5 exposure and markers of oxidative stress in blood.
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Ambient particulate air pollution assessed as outdoor concentrations of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 micro m in diameter (PM(2.5)) in urban background has been associated with cardiovascular diseases at the population level. However, the significance of individual exposure and the involved mechanisms remain uncertain. We measured personal PM(2.5) and carbon black exposure in 50 students four times in 1 year and analyzed blood samples for markers of protein and lipid oxidation, for red blood cell (RBC) and platelet counts, and for concentrations of hemoglobin and fibrinogen. We analyzed protein oxidation in terms of gamma-glutamyl semialdehyde in hemoglobin (HBGGS) and 2-aminoadipic semialdehyde in hemoglobin (HBAAS) and plasma proteins (PLAAS), and lipid peroxidation was measured as malondialdehyde (MDA) in plasma. Median exposures were 16.1 micro g/m(3) for personal PM(2.5) exposure, 9.2 micro g/m(3) for background PM(2.5) concentration, and 8.1 X 10(-6)/m for personal carbon black exposure. Personal carbon black exposure and PLAAS concentration were positively associated (p < 0.01), whereas an association between personal PM(2.5) exposure and PLAAS was only of borderline significance (p = 0.061). A 3.7% increase in MDA concentrations per 10 micro g/m(3) increase in personal PM(2.5) exposure was found for women (p < 0.05), whereas there was no significant relationship for the men. Similarly, positive associations between personal PM(2.5)exposure and both RBC and hemoglobin concentrations were found only in women (p < 0.01). There were no significant relationships between background PM(2.5) concentration and any of the biomarkers. This suggests that exposure to particles in moderate concentrations can induce oxidative stress and increase RBCs in peripheral blood. Personal exposure appears more closely related to these biomarkers potentially related to cardiovascular disease than is ambient PM(2.5) background concentrations.

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  • 10.1080/10473289.2000.10464151
Hourly Personal Exposures to Fine Particles and Gaseous Pollutants—Results from Baltimore, Maryland
  • Jul 1, 2000
  • Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association
  • Li-Te Chang + 3 more

A study to characterize 1-hr multi-pollutant exposures was performed in Baltimore, MD, during the summer of 1998 and the winter of 1999, and was conducted over a 15-day period in each of the two seasons. Personal exposures were measured by a trained field technician, who wore a newly developed Roll-Around System (RAS) to measure 1-hr PM2 5 and gaseous (CO, O3, NO2, SO2, volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) exposures. One-hour O3, NO2, and SO2 personal exposures were measured using samplers developed in our laboratory, while short-term PM2.5, CO, and VOCs exposures were measured using currently available monitors. All 1-hr multi-pollutant exposures were measured while the technician performed pre-determined activities, beginning at 7:00 a.m. and ending at 7:00 p.m. of the same day. Activities were scripted to simulate activities performed by older adults (65+ years of age). Corresponding 1-hr ambient pollutant concentrations were obtained from federal or state monitoring networks. In this paper, we discuss the results from our study and present our descriptive analysis of the 1-hr personal particulate and gaseous exposure data. Personal PM2.5, O3, CO, and VOCs exposures showed substantial variability over the 12-hr sampling periods. Multiple pairwise comparison tests showed that 1-hr personal O3 exposures were significantly lower in indoor microenvironments as compared with outdoor microenvironments. One-hour personal CO exposures measured in vehicles were significantly higher than those measured in other microenvironments. The associations between 1-hr personal exposures and corresponding ambient concentrations differed by pollutant and by microenvironment. For example, the correlation between personal PM2.5 exposures and ambient concentrations was lowest (rs = 0.36, p < 0.05) in the winter for indoor non-residential microenvironments, and was highest (rs = 0.90, p < 0.05) in the winter for in-vehicle microenvi-ronments. For O3, the correlation between personal exposures and ambient levels was weakest in the winter for residential microenvironments (rs = 0.05, p > 0.05), and was strongest in the summer for outdoor near-roadway microenvironments (rs = 0.91, p < 0.05).

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  • 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117295
Characteristics and determinants of personal exposure to PM2.5 mass and components in adult subjects in the megacity of Guangzhou, China
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  • Atmospheric Environment
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Characteristics and determinants of personal exposure to PM2.5 mass and components in adult subjects in the megacity of Guangzhou, China

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  • 10.1038/s41370-022-00483-0
Using time-resolved monitor wearing data to study the effect of clean cooking interventions on personal air pollution exposures.
  • Oct 23, 2022
  • Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology
  • Carlos F Gould + 13 more

Personal monitoring can estimate individuals' exposures to environmental pollutants; however, accuracy depends on consistent monitor wearing, which is under evaluated. To study the association between device wearing and personal air pollution exposure. Using personal device accelerometry data collected in the context of a randomized cooking intervention in Ghana with three study arms (control, improved biomass, and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) arms; N = 1414), we account for device wearing to infer parameters of PM2.5 and CO exposure. Device wearing was positively associated with exposure in the control and improved biomass arms, but weakly in the LPG arm. Inferred community-level air pollution was similar across study arms (~45 μg/m3). The estimated direct contribution of individuals' cooking to PM2.5 exposure was 64 μg/m3 for the control arm, 74 μg/m3 for improved biomass, and 6 μg/m3 for LPG. Arm-specific average PM2.5 exposure at near-maximum wearing was significantly lower in the LPG arm as compared to the improved biomass and control arms. Analysis of personal CO exposure mirrored PM2.5 results. Personal monitor wearing was positively associated with average air pollution exposure, emphasizing the importance of high device wearing during monitoring periods and directly assessing device wearing for each deployment. We demonstrate that personal monitor wearing data can be used to refine exposure estimates and infer unobserved parameters related to the timing and source of environmental exposures. In a cookstove trial among pregnant women, time-resolved personal air pollution device wearing data were used to refine exposure estimates and infer unobserved exposure parameters, including community-level air pollution, the direct contribution of cooking to personal exposure, and the effect of clean cooking interventions on personal exposure. For example, in the control arm, while average 48 h personal PM2.5 exposure was 77 μg/m3, average predicted exposure at near-maximum daytime device wearing was 108 μg/m3 and 48 μg/m3 at zero daytime device wearing. Wearing-corrected average 48 h personal PM2.5 exposures were 50% lower in the LPG arm than the control and improved biomass and inferred direct cooking contributions to personal PM2.5 from LPG were 90% lower than the other arms. Our recommendation is that studies assessing personal exposures should examine the direct association between device wearing and estimated mean personal exposure.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 25
  • 10.1186/1476-069x-10-69
Personal endotoxin exposure in a panel study of school children with asthma
  • Aug 2, 2011
  • Environmental Health
  • Ralph J Delfino + 2 more

BackgroundEndotoxin exposure has been associated with asthma exacerbations and increased asthma prevalence. However, there is little data regarding personal exposure to endotoxin in children at risk, or the relation of personal endotoxin exposure to residential or ambient airborne endotoxin. The relation between personal endotoxin and personal air pollution exposures is also unknown.MethodsWe characterized personal endotoxin exposures in 45 school children with asthma ages 9-18 years using 376 repeated measurements from a PM2.5 active personal exposure monitor. We also assayed endotoxin in PM2.5 samples collected from ambient regional sites (N = 97 days) and from a subset of 12 indoor and outdoor subject home sites (N = 109 and 111 days, respectively) in Riverside and Whittier, California. Endotoxin was measured using the Limulus Amoebocyte Lysate kinetic chromogenic assay. At the same time, we measured personal, home and ambient exposure to PM2.5 mass, elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC). To assess exposure relations we used both rank correlations and mixed linear regression models, adjusted for personal temperature and relative humidity.ResultsWe found small positive correlations of personal endotoxin with personal PM2.5 EC and OC, but not personal PM2.5 mass or stationary site air pollutant measurements. Outdoor home, indoor home and ambient endotoxin were moderately to strongly correlated with each other. However, in mixed models, personal endotoxin was not associated with indoor home or outdoor home endotoxin, but was associated with ambient endotoxin. Dog and cat ownership were significantly associated with increased personal but not indoor endotoxin.ConclusionsDaily fixed site measurements of endotoxin in the home environment may not predict daily personal exposure, although a larger sample size may be needed to assess this. This conclusion is relevant to short-term exposures involved in the acute exacerbation of asthma.

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  • 10.1097/01.ede.0000392264.02842.7c
Health Risk of Air Pollution Exposure to the Elderly in China
  • Jan 1, 2011
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Health Risk of Air Pollution Exposure to the Elderly in China

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  • Cite Count Icon 50
  • 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.06.006
Personal exposures to particulate matter among children with asthma in Detroit, Michigan
  • Aug 5, 2004
  • Atmospheric Environment
  • Fuyuen Y Yip + 6 more

Personal exposures to particulate matter among children with asthma in Detroit, Michigan

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