Abstract
This contribution presents the application of Dempster-Shafer theory to the prediction of China's stock market. To be specific, we predicted the most promising industry in the next month every trading day. This prediction can help investors to select stocks, but is rarely seen in previous literatures. Instead of predicting the fluctuation of the stock market from scratch all by ourselves, we fused ratings of 44 industries from China's securities companies using Shafer's evidence theory. Our preliminary experiment is a daily prediction since 2012-05-02 with ratings published 10 days before that day. Our predicted industries have an average rank of 19.85 in earnings, 11.8% better than random guessing (average rank is 22.5). The average rise rate of predicted industries in a month is 0.59%, 0.86% higher than overall (which is -0.274%), and nearly 0.7% higher than simple voting (which is -0.097%). Our predictions are posted on Weibo every day since 2014-04-28.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.