Beijing's Relations With the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: An Inferential Framework for the Post-1997 Arrangement

Abstract

IN an era of ever-increasing tendencies toward global interdependence and transnational linkages, the definitions of nation-state and sovereignty may be under metamorphosis. Yet, in a few years from now, we will witness a rare event in which the People's Republic of China (hereafter China) gets to reclaim sovereignty over her long-lost territory, Hong Kong. Understanding the arduous and complex process of transition may be important in its own right, but it seems equally important to explore what such a process is likely to produce for the post-1997 period. Obviously, there is an inherent danger in such endeavors of looking into an event which has yet to completely reveal itself. Yet, the easy alternative of waiting for the event to unfold and providing a post-facto analysis seems far less challenging. This study seeks to steer a middle course between the Scylla of hyperfactual description and the Charybdis of free-wheeling armchair speculation. Two strategies are employed for this purpose. One is to explore the post-1997 arrangement from a central-local government relations perspective. The adoption of this perspective is based on the consideration that the changes introduced in post-Mao China's centrallocal relations may supply an important base of inference about Beijing's relations with the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) from 1997 onward. The other strategy is to reflect on certain trends emerging from China's current dealing with Hong Kong during the period of transition. The whole question comes down to the issue of to what extent the HKSAR will be allowed to exercise autonomy in managing local affairs. Or, how special will Beijing's relations vis-a-vis the HKSAR be in actual terms? In order for this relationship to be special, first of all, the HKSAR government must be allowed to perform many more functions than are