Bayesian optimization based machine learning approaches for prediction of plug-in electric vehicle state-of-charge

Abstract

Abstract The growing popularity of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) around the world makes complexity in power sector. The distribution system is subjected to overload due to the random penetration of PEVs in charging depending on their level of state-of-charge (SOC). The accurate calculation and prediction of SOC considering their travel distance makes significant impact on the level of SOC. Therefore, the accurate SOC prediction of PEVs is need of the hour in transportation sector. However, the prediction of SOC allows the PEVs owners to decide the charging/discharging mode or priority based charging. Recently, machine learning techniques are gaining popularity in prediction analysis of different parameters. This article proposes machine learning approaches in combination with Bayesian optimization (BO) for prediction analysis of PEVs SOC. The gradient boosting method (GBM) and random forest method (RFM) are used as machine learning approaches in this work. The energy consumption pattern, different battery capacities and total trip distance of PEVs are included in calculation for the estimation of accurate SOC. A satisfactory result of SOC prediction has been observed using both GBM-BO and RFM-BO. The comparative study of results reveals the performance and efficacy of GBM-BO against RFM-BO in the PEVs SOC prediction analysis. Moreover, the hybrid machine learning techniques with BO performs better than individual machine learning techniques in the prediction analysis of PEVs SOC.