Abstract

Residual life estimation of components is becoming more important in quality and reliability management. In order to estimate the residual life of components more accurately, information provided by experts could be used. In this paper, a Bayesian method of residual life estimation by fusing different types of expert knowledge separately is proposed. Firstly, based on different types of expert information, the prior distributions can be determined respectively. The posterior distribution can be determined by fusing the field lifetime data. And the Bayesian estimation of residual life has also been derived. From the case study it can be found that the accuracy of the residual life estimation is obviously improved.

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