Bayesian and LASSO Regressions for Comparative Permeability Modeling of Sandstone Reservoirs

Abstract

In this research, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) algorithms were adopted for the core permeability modeling as a function of well log and core measurements. More specifically, the core permeability (dependent factor) was modeled given the well log and core data (independent variables) and then predicted in non-cored intervals of a well in a sandstone formation. The BMA is a stochastic linear modeling and a Bayesian parameter selection. Among 50 linear models generated as a function of the independent variables and depicted in Occam’s window, the best model of the highest posterior probability is determined. The best model has the optimal subset parameters that most influences the response factor. The core permeability modeling was again conducted using the LASSO algorithm, which adopts a completely different way of modeling and subset selection by using the penalized least-squared equation. Both BMA and LASSO resulted in a very accurate prediction of the core permeability by achieving perfect measured and calculated permeability matching. Matches for the two algorithms were quantified by computing the adjusted R-squared and root-mean-squared prediction error. In addition, results of the BMA and LASSO were compared to the conventional multiple linear regression (LM). The LASSO algorithm led to an accurate matching similar to LM, but slightly better than BMA. Therefore, both BMA and LASSO represent integrated procedures for accurate permeability estimation similar to conventional regression analysis.