Back in the Soup: Now What?

Abstract

This article for AJAD presents the outlook for the world rice market as of early September 2023. It builds on my AJAD article from a year ago (Timmer 2022) and on multiple articles in the East Asia Forum (see Editorial Board, ANU 2023a, b). A year ago, the world was facing a severe food crisis. All the ingredients for significant shortages of food grains and vegetable oils were already boiling. An article in this journal at the time asked how to manage such a crisis (Timmer 2022). The answer was a series of steps designed to build confidence in the availability of supplies. Leadership was sought from Indonesia, chair of the G20 in 2022, and soon to be chair of ASEAN. Indonesia delivered (Editorial Board, ANU 2023a). World food markets remained relatively calm, rice prices actually declined for several months, and the world’s consumers breathed a bit easier. But the breathing space was short-lived. A combination of factors, especially the rampedup attacks by Russia on Ukrainian food export infrastructure and the emergence of a vigorous El Niño in Asian rice bowls, has led to renewed concerns about an impending food crisis. This time the focus is on rice, rather than wheat, maize, and vegetable oils. But rice is increasingly the “food of the poor” in Asia and in Africa (Timmer 2013). A spike in rice prices will cause widespread hunger.