Avaliação das Parametrizações Cumulos Emanuel e Grell do Modelo Climático Regional RegCM4: Simulando a Precipitação e Temperatura a Superfície sobre o Nordeste Brasileiro durante o Outono Austral

Abstract

The result of simulations with regional dynamic models presents systematic errors in different regions of the world. In the tropical region, such errors are usually associated with the uncertainties in the physical parameterizations, for example, deep convection or the cloud microphysics. Thus, the objective was to evaluate precipitation and temperature of simulations performed with the RegCM4 model, based on different parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The study area was the Northeast of Brazil (NEB) during the southern autumns (March-April-May) from 1998 to 2008. For evaluate the precipitation used 3B42_V6 algorithm data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM). The surface temperature was evaluated through the results reanalysis of ERA-Interim. The methodology was composed by cluster analysis per Ward’s minimal variance hierarchical method, Pearson correlation, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and test of differences between averages (t-Student) with significance level of 0.05. Moreover, the accuracy indices were calculated: Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). For realization the statistical analysis used the R software version 3.4.3. It was concluded that both simulations underestimate precipitation estimated by TRMM. The simulation with parameterization of Emanuel presented minor errors in clusters 1, 3 and 4. In relation the temperature simulated by the RegCM4, the best results were obtained in simulation of this variable in all clusters.