Autocorrelation and Cross-Correlation of Hospitalizations for Syphilis and HIV/AIDS in the State of Bahia

Abstract

Objective: To identify and estimate the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of time series of hospitalization rates for syphilis and HIV/AIDS in the State of Bahia, in the period from 2000 to 2020. Theoretical Framework: It is based on the characterization and factors associated with notifications of syphilis and HIV/AIDS infection, as well as the social determinants that influence access to health programs and policies. Method: This is a time-based ecological study, carried out using data from the Hospital Information System (SIH) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analyses were performed using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method and the cross-correlation coefficient ρDCCA. Results and Discussion: There was persistent behavior for the time series of hospitalizations due to syphilis and HIV/AIDS (αDFA > 0.50), in addition to a weak negative cross-correlation (< -0.20), with only the autocorrelation of syphilis being statistically significant. It is believed that the behavior described tends to occur in the long term and may be repeated in the coming years, if interventions that contribute to the reversal are not carried out, both for the diseases in isolation and for co-infection. Research Implications: The findings of this research may contribute to updating knowledge about syphilis and HIV/AIDS infection in adults, but mainly to the construction of indicators with an emphasis on health surveillance systems in the State of Bahia. Originality/Value: The study aims to analyze hospitalization cases in which syphilis or HIV/AIDS was the main diagnosis, thus corroborating the planning and strengthening of public policies.