Abstract
ABSTRACTCocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) production forecasting is important to the Nigerian agricultural transformation agenda. Thus, the ultimate aim of this investigation is to reduce risks associated with cocoa farming in the country and determine the future prospects from past yield trends. At present, cocoa is a major target in Nigeria’s export diversification strategies. During the past century, cocoa production has experienced significant rise and fall as a result of diverse institutional and climate changes. This study attempts to forecast Nigerian cocoa production between 2018 and 2025 using the ARIMA model. The automated analytical procedure implemented in R software shows that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the combination with the least Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and hence, the most appropriate for forecasting. The results revealed that cocoa production would fall by more than 20% in 2025 in comparison with the 2017 figure. Thus, to guard against the fall, cocoa farmers in the country should be incentivized through adequate financial and technical assistance.
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