Atmospheric Precursor of fire hazard: development of a fire-sentinel index for risk management in Abruzzo Region (Central Italy).

In recent years, Italy is facing severe emergency linked to fires. According to the latest reports, over 53,000 hectares of vegetation were lost in 2023, due to arson or negligent fires. Consequences on ecosystem and natural equilibrium are relevant, since the time for the natural restoration process may take several decades. Climate extremes exacerbate Mediterranean area fire risk, due to prolonged drought conditions. On the other hand, hydrogeological risk is also expected to increase over burnt slopes, where surface runoff is incremented due vegetation loss. According to the current legislation, fire risk management is in charge of the Italian Regional Civil Protection (RCP), therefore the development of user-oriented tools, able to prevent the fire hazardous conditions, is key element to ensure the forest-fire risk management. In the proposed model, the atmospheric conditions preceding a forest fire are estimated though the combination of air temperature and relative humidity, as reference of atmospheric parameters. The approach assesses how many times the observed air temperature and RH of the previous 12 days area above the critical conditions (i.e., >25°C and < 50%, respectively). The model calibration and validation are carried out by using a three-years dataset of Abruzzo Region forest fires dataset, that hit the Abruzzo region from 2018 to 2020, combined with meteorological data from civil protection gauges’ network. The developed index identified fire-precursors in the 80% of selected case studies. The missing 20% is mainly related to the meteorological uncertainty in poorly gauged areas. Starting from the index validation, a pre-operational tool forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses is also described. The hazard forecasts based on Fire Sentinel Index (FSI), are operational for forest and interface fires forecasting activities on the Abruzzo region, in the framework of a specific agreement signed with the Abruzzo region Civil Protection Agency. The results related to the use of the FSI during the last forest fire prevention campaign that occurred in summer 2024 in the Abruzzo region will be highlighted.

This article presents building fire risk analysis model based on scenario clusters and its application in fire risk management of buildings. Building fire risk analysis is a process of understanding and characterizing the fire hazards, the unwanted outcomes that may result from the fire, and the probabilities of fire and unwanted outcomes occurring. The purpose is to evaluate and make a decision about the level of fire risk to determine whether to take appropriate risk management measures or not. Therefore, building fire risk analysis serves as a basis for fire risk management. In the paper, scenario clusters are constructed in the process of building fire risk analysis, and the number of deaths and directive property loss are selected as building fire risk indexes. Finally, the average fire risk of residential buildings is quantified in detail. With the types of detailed fire risk models developed here, fire risk management measures could be taken to improve the building fire safety grading and reduce fire risk levels and subsequent damage.

Forest fires can result in loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and adverse environmental impacts. This study showcases an integrated approach for conducting high-detail fire risk assessment and supporting strategic planning and management of fire events in peri-urban areas that are susceptible to forest fires. The presented methodology encompasses fire hazard modeling, vulnerability and exposure assessment, and in situ observations. Numerous fire hazard scenarios were tested, simulating the spatiotemporal spread of fire events under different wind characteristics. The vulnerability of the studied areas was assessed by combining population data (density and age) and building characteristics, while the exposure parameter employed land value (EUR/m2) as an indicator for qualitatively estimating potential economic effects in the study area. Field campaigns facilitated the identification and recording of critical areas and points, including high-risk buildings and population gathering areas, which subsequently informed the mitigation and fire management planning suggestions. Moreover, field recordings acted as an iterative process for validating and updating the fire risk maps. This research work utilizes state-of-the-art techniques to achieve an analysis of fire risk at a building-block level. Overall, the study presents an applied and end-to-end methodology for effectively addressing forest fire risk in peri-urban areas.

Forest fires (wildfires) have become a major concern for several environmental experts. Assessment of fire effects at local scale is increasingly considered a critical aspect of ecosystem functioning, since fire plays a crucial role in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion and the hydrological cycle. At global scale, fire is the most generalized means of transforming tropical forest in agricultural areas, and it has severe impacts on global atmospheric chemistry. Fire is a natural factor in many climates with high levels of vegetation stress. However, changes in traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns, which have been identified as major causes of wild fires, have recently modified the incidence of fire. Several assessment techniques and methods have been developed to help model and evaluate forest fire risk and hazard. There is the need to identify a method or combination of methods to help model forest fire risk and hazard to enable the sustainability of the natural resources. In this paper, the various methods are reviewed in order to enhance the use of appropriate method(s) for forest fire risk and hazard management. From the review and deductions of the methods, it was concluded that spatial multi-criteria modelling and evaluation (SMCME) of fire risk and hazard is preferred. It was also deduced that combination of SMCME with other methods has proven to be more efficient and effective when compared with the use of individual methods. Key words: Forest fires, risk, hazard, management.

The history of nuclear power development shows that fire is one of the important risks faced by nuclear power plants, and the harm to nuclear power plants cannot be ignored. As scientific and technological innovation is playing an increasingly important role in changing social production and life, it is necessary to explore the application of information technology to comprehensively improve the technological, informational and intelligent level of fire fighting work, and improve the efficiency of fire fighting management through the deep integration of fire safety and intelligence in nuclear power field. This paper analyzes the current status of fire safety management in domestic nuclear power plants. It takes the fire load refinement and intelligent management as an example to discuss and propose optimization suggestions for nuclear power plant fire safety management. Based on Performance-based and Risk-informed nuclear power fire safety management, Establish corresponding risk assessment guidelines to provide risk-informed decision-making advice for fire safety work. Develop nuclear power plant fire safety risk management application tools according to risk management methods. It can monitor the important fire hazard areas in real time, effectively supervise the new fire risk areas of nuclear power plants, quantitatively assess the fire risk and formulate coping strategies, and upgrade and optimize existing fire management methods. The fire safety risk management method covers risk-informed fire risk management to all fire protection fields of nuclear power plants, and develops fire safety management of nuclear power plants in a refined, informational and intelligent direction, greatly improving the fire safety management of nuclear power plants Level.

Harmonization of semi-objective ANP with explained CRITIC for quantitative evaluation of fire hazard risks for flame-retardant materials

More than 70% of accidents that occur in offshore oil and gas facilities stem from hydrocarbon explosions and fires, which result in serious consequences in association with health, safety and the environment. Most of these accidents are the result of a long chain of human error. To reduce accidents, therefore, the opportunities for human error and the effects of the errors should be minimized, by designing equipment and work systems in accordance with human factors engineering principles. For the last two decades, risk-based approaches as key disciplines of human factors engineering principles have more extensively been applied to offshore oil and gas projects. However, many challenges still lie ahead to develop pertinent engineering and design disciplines for the quantitative assessment and management of hydrocarbon explosion and fire risks. The aim of the present study is to develop a documented procedure for the quantitative assessment and management of hydrocarbon explosion and fire risks in offshore oil and gas facilities. In the present paper, the application of the developed procedure is demonstrated for an FPSO installation with the focus on the definition of explosion and fire design loads.

Forest fires are increasingly affecting forest ecosystems, with severe ecological and socio-economic impacts on neighboring communities. In this context, evaluating the risk of fires at the fireshed level is considered a crucial step towards improving knowledge about fire risk management, therefore, minimizing potential damages of wildfires on people, properties, and natural resources. The aim of this study was to assess forest fire risk perception of communities at two firesheds in Lebanon. In-person surveys were conducted in areas of high fire risk within each fireshed. The analyzed data showed variability in opinions and challenges about fire risk management. Most of the provided recommendations included advocating for the increase of awareness about fire risk and safety, inducing training about fire-fighting and creating networks to facilitate communication within communities at risk.

Fire is a common risk in the oil and gas processing industry such as PT Pertamina Asset 4 Field Sukowati. Fire risk management is important to prevent large damages and losses in the fire incidence. This study aims to describe fire risk management at PT Pertamina Asset 4 Field Sukowati. It is hoped that it can be useful as a reference for evaluating companies to improve fire risk management performance. This research is classified as observational descriptive research with purposive sampling data collection method. The analysis of the study used the Risk Management based on AS / NZS 4360: 2004 reference. The results showed that fire risk at PT Pertamina Asset 4 in Sukowati Field based on the stages of work varied from low, medium to high. The fire protection system at PT Pertamina Aset 4 Field Sukowati generally shows good conditions and is well monitored. Fire emergency response planning and organization are also adequate. Unfortunately, fire emergency response simulations have not been carried out regularly, so evaluating the success of fire risk management programs is difficult to measure. The recommendation in this study is the measurement of workers' preparedness as a follow-up to the implementation of fire emergency response simulations. It is because high worker preparedness is the key to implementing good fire risk management. Keyword: Risk management; Fire; PT Pertamina

Natural disasters are inevitable and it is impossible to fully recoup the damage caused by the disasters. But to some extent it is possible to minimize the potential risk by developing early warning strategies for disasters, prepare and implement developmental plans to provide resilience to such disasters and to help in rehabilitation and post disaster reduction. Uncontrolled forest fires have adversely affected the local landscape and economy. Climatic, phenology variations and topography, apart from local factors are some of the main causes of frequent occurrence of wild forest fires in Garhwal Himalayas. Understanding the important of forest in the national economy (12% of global plant wealth), conservation of environment and biodiversity, Forest Survey of India(FSI) as a central monitoring agency is assessing and estimating the forest resources in a two years cycle. India is one of the few countries in the world to carry out the forest cover assessment and mapping using satellite data in a two years cycle period. Keeping in view the role of forest in national development, a Central Sector scheme has been implemented that includes- development of Early Warning system for forest fires, mapping of forest fire affected areas, development of a fire danger rating system, monitoring the impact of the scheme and its evaluation, identification and mapping of all fire prone areas, compilation and analysis of data-base on forest fire damage, development and installation of ‘Fire Danger Rating System’ and ‘Fire Forecasting System’. The other measures include building up a strong communication network between the monitoring station and fire suppression teams, effective transportation, watch towers, Fire line creation and maintenance, creation of water harvesting structures, fire management plans, any other technological innovation, assistance to JFM(Joint Forest Management Committees),awareness, training and research. Remote sensing and GIS technology could be effectively used in fire risk zonation. The technology has proved to be a valuable tool in identifying different fire risk zones based on appropriate parameters such as fuel load, slope, aspect, altitude, drainage, distance from roads and settlements. The approach followed for broad based forest type classification in the study was helpful in identifying different forest types available in the area. Fuel load, slope degree, aspect, elevation, drainage, roads and settlement layers were assigned different weight ages depending upon their impact, in identification of fire risk zones. This was followed by ground verification of the generated fire risk zone maps and their comparison with incidences of forest fire in previous years. The response time to disaster relief was calculated based on the friction offered by slope, altitude and other factors. Thus, high to low fire risk zones can be identified and suitable management strategy for controlling the disaster can be prioritized in this region.

Forest fire is one of the leading causes of forest and wildlife loss. The objective of this study was to use satellite imagery and Geographic Information System techniques to assess the forest fire risk zonation map of the Aalital rural municipality. This rural municipality is a part of the Sudurpaschim province, Nepal; is prone to forest fires. Four fire risk zones were established in the study area i.e. very high, high, medium, and low-risk zone. Thematic layers were derived from topographic maps and satellite imageries. For the delineation of fire risk zones, a multi-parametric weighted index model i.e. the FRI (Fire Risk Index) method was adopted. The fire incidence data provided by MODIS were used to validate the resulting forest fire risk zone map. About 25.17% of the total study area lies under the very high-risk zone followed by 46.51% under high risk, 25.68% under medium risk, and 2.62% under the low-risk zone. It can be inferred that the majority of the area is at high risk of forest fire. This map of fire risk zone can help in disaster and forest management as valuable data to prepare effective measures for appropriate fire risk management in the area.

Forest and interface fires change the dynamics of land cover because of the combination of various environmental and socio-economic factors that make Mediterranean regions particularly vulnerable to fire. They represent one of the main causes of environmental degradation and have an important negative impact on the landscape, strongly influence ecological processes and compromise ecosystems. Fires are a problem that, while varying in severity and frequency, affects all European countries. However, the Mediterranean countries tend to be the most affected, in Italy for example, the issue of fires is an important issue and addresses the problem through laws, policies and fire prevention measures. The Italian legislation reiterates the obligation for each municipal administration to adopt a simple and fast tool that allows the safety of the population in the event of an interface or forest fires that threaten settlements, sensitive places or local infrastructures. The estimation of fire danger is very important for quantifying the impact on the territory and plays an important role in mitigation framework programmes, representing a strategic support for policy makers for planning fire prevention strategies and policies and for monitoring fire areas. The National Manual for the Processing of Civil Protection Plans establishes the guidelines for a methodological approach with the aim of suggesting the minimum requirements to be met for the drafting of risk maps on the Italian territory. The Puglia Region is among the Italian regions particularly affected by the phenomenon of fires, the civil protection in 2019 identified around 600 fires. Fire danger estimation is very important for quantifying the impact on land and plays an important role in mitigation framework programs, representing a strategic support for policy makers in planning fire prevention strategies and policies and monitoring fire-affected areas. For this reason, the Apulia Region and the other regions of central and southern Italy have expressed the need to create a permanent Technical Table of Forest Fire Prevention Actions (AIB) in order to design strategies shared with the different stakeholders to improve the AIB system. The AIB Plan is produced using spatial and satellite analysis models and techniques appropriate for the interpretation of forecasting, monitoring, and supervising systems that can be used to improve forecasting, prevention, and active management of wildfires. Through the Plan for Forecasting, Preventing and Actively Fighting Forest Fires, the Apulia Region supports municipal planning activities in the field of forest fire risk by providing municipal-scale risk zoning expressed in terms of an overall risk index calculated on a municipal basis. This paper presents an experimental methodology carried out within the framework of the research agreement with the Apulia Civil Protection Department to update the fire risk classification at the municipal level calculated by formulating, in the form of weighted and normalized indices, risk factors such as forest cover, potential risk, actual risk, road infrastructure density, land cover, historical fire occurrence and climate variability. All indices were processed in a GIS environment and validated with the tools currently in use by the Apulia Region Civil Protection Department.

In the frame of the European programme GMES, the EURORISK team, conducted by several National Civil Protection services in Europe, with the network of European meteorological services EUMETNET, and EADS ASTRIUM as industrial leader, is developing and validating new geoinformation services. These services take benefit of EO information in combination with other data sources and models, aiming at a better management of risks (atmospheric risks, geophysical risks, and man-made risks). The initiative started two years ago (early 2003) with a first project, RISK-EOS, for the European Space Agency (ESA), focused on floods and forest fire-related services, and is now being enlarged through a second project PREVIEW, for the European Commission. The common approach for these two complementary projects is to progressively deploy new operational services for risk management, by taking advantage of the best capacities and know-how existing across Europe. The services are delivered and validated through an iterative process based on preoperational delivery, technical and operational validation, and iterative improvement based on test campaigns results and users feedback. Regarding forest fires management, the targeted service portfolio addresses the full risk management life-cycle, and includes: in prevention: vegetation and fuel parameters mapping; in anticipation: dynamic (daily) fire risk mapping, at high resolution, through assimilation of EO data and meteorological data; during crisis: fires monitoring at large scale using medium-resolution sensors; after crisis: rapid mapping of fires, and seasonal burn scars mapping/damage assessment. This presentation will briefly introduce the EURORISK initiative, explaining the overall approach and methodology to develop the new services proposed. Then, the presentation will be focused on the forest fire management services, addressing: the services which have been already validated in the frame of EURORISK (2003-2004), and delivered widely (France, Spain, Italy); the full fire management service portfolio, as targeted for the next stage of EURORISK (2005-2008).

In recent years, severe and deadly wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires have resulted in an increased focus on this particular risk to humans and property, especially in Canada, USA, Australia, and countries in the Mediterranean area. Also, in areas not previously accustomed to wildfires, such as boreal areas in Sweden, Norway, and in the Arctic, WUI fires have recently resulted in increasing concern. January 2014, the most severe wooden town fire in Norway since 1923 raged through Lærdalsøyri. Ten days later, a wildfire raged through the scattered populated community of Flatanger and destroyed even more structures. These fires came as a surprise to the fire brigades and the public. We describe and analyze a proposed way forward for exploring if and how this increasing fire incidence can be linked to concomitant changes in climate, land-use, and habitat management; and then aim at developing new dynamic adaptive fire risk assessment and management tools. We use coastal Norway as an example and focus on temporal changes in fire risk in wooden structure settlements and in the Norwegian Calluna vulgaris L. dominated WUI. In this interface, the fire risk is now increasing due to a combination of land-use changes, resulting in large areas of early successional vegetation with an accumulation of biomass, and the interactive effects of climatic changes resulting in increased drought risk. We propose a novel bow-tie framework to explore fire risk and preventive measures at various timescales (years, months, weeks, hours) as a conceptual model for exploring risk contributing factors and possibilities for risk management. Ignition is the top event of the bow-tie which has the potential development towards a fire disaster as a worst case outcome. The bow-tie framework includes factors such as changes in the built environment and natural habitat fuel moisture content due to the weather conditions, WUI fuel accumulation, possibly improved ecosystem management, contribution by civic prescribed burner groups, relevant fire risk modeling, and risk communication to the fire brigades and the public. We propose an interdisciplinary research agenda for developing this framework and improving the current risk understanding, risk communication, and risk management. This research agenda will represent important contributions in paving the road for fire disaster prevention in Norway, and may provide a model for other systems and regions.

The chemical industry is very vulnerable to hazards due to factory operational activities. One potential hazard in the industrial is fire hazards. The purpose of this research is to identify hazards and fire risk assessment in the operational activities in the chemical industry. This research uses the hazard identification and risk assessment method. Determination of severity, probability, and level of fire risk is carried out through Focus Group Discussion with competent experts in fire risk management in the chemical industry. The result of the study are identifying hazards in operational activities in the chemical industry, conducting of the risk assessment, and determine of the risk level and risk control causes of fires. A total of 15 activities in the chemical plant studied have a risk of fire with a high level of severity but the chance of occurrence varies. Activities that are classified as high fire risk in the chemical industry are the ship carrying of flammable liquids leaning to the jetty, unloading flammable liquids from ship to storage tank, loading flammable liquids from storage tank to truck, transfering flammable liquids from storage tank to production tank, and unloading flammable liquids from truck to storage tank.