At a Snail's Pace: Time to Equality in Simple Models of Affirmative Action Programs

Abstract

Several simple mathematical models of affirmative action programs are examined. The models, all of one organization, are derived from the program at issue in the Supreme Court's Weber decision. Contrasts include whether such programs do or do not consider the attrition of black representation, the effects of declining or increasing numbers of positions available, the influence of community educational levels, and the rate of program hiring. The focus is on the time necessary for the program to achieve equality between the racial compositions of the local labor force and that of one occupational group in the organization. The general conclusion is that such programs are slow to promote the desired result of racial equality because of structural inertia. Correlatively, the measure of equality is relatively insensitive to any short-term progress achieved by such programs. In its 1979 Weber decision, the Supreme Court upheld the legality of those voluntary affirmative action programs that reserved places for blacks and members of other minorities. The decision brought an outpouring of editorials and of columns by such diverse commentators as William F. Buckley, Tom Wicker, and William Raspberry. The Weber decision has also influenced the statements and, reportedly, efforts against such programs by President Reagan and other members of the U.S. government's executive branch. The commentary mentioned above has concentrated on the legal or moral aspects of the case, most often devolving to whether it is proper to practice reverse discrimination in trying to right previous wrongs. Such commentary ignores the practical question of the effectiveness of