Asymmetry Effect of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in Iran: Using from EGARCH Model, 1959-2009

رابطه میان تورم و نااطمینانی آن می تواند تحت تأثیر رژیم های تورمی مختلف قرار گیرد . تحقیقات انجام شده در ایران، نقش این رژیم ها در ارتباط پویای تورم و نااطمینانی را بررسی نکرده اند. به‌منظور پرکردن این خلأ در ادبیات اقتصاد ایران، این مقاله به مطالعه رابطه میان تورم و نااطمینانی آن با وجود انتقال رژیم و با توجه به رفتار نامتقارن الگو می پردازد. برای دستیابی به این هدف از تبدیل مارکوف در چارچوب یک الگوی تعمیم یافته گارچ نامتقارن استفاده می گردد. به این منظور دو معادله به ترتیب برای تورم و نااطمینانی آن، برای دوره (2013:07-1990:03) برآورد می گردد. معادله اول تحت دو رژیم فشار تورمی فزاینده وکاهنده و معادله دوم رفتار در دو وضعیت نوسانات تورمی زیاد و کم برآورد می شود. برآوردها نشان می دهد که اثر نااطمینانی تورم بر سطح تورم در رژیم فشار تورمی فزاینده، مثبت اما در رژیم فشار تورمی کاهنده، منفی است. همچنین در وضعیت نوسانات تورمی زیاد، افزایش تورم باعث ازدیاد نااطمینانی اما در وضعیت نوسانات تورمی کم، سطح تورم بر نااطمینانی تورم تأثیری ندارد. اثرات تکانه های مثبت قیمتی بر نااطمینانی بیش تر از تکانه های منفی می باشد و احتمال ماندگاری در هر وضعیت تورمی در ایران بالا است. با توجه به نتایج، به نظر می رسد که اتخاذ سیاست های تثبیت قیمت ها نه‌تنها در کاهش تورم بلکه در کاهش نااطمینانی تورم نیز نقش مهمی دارند؛ بنابراین، پیشنهاد می گردد که دولت و به‌ویژه بانک مرکزی از اتخاذ سیاست های اقتصادی که به نااطمینانی تورم دامن می زند، اجتناب نماید. ازجمله نتایج مهم دیگر این تحقیق که باید مورد توجه مسئولین پولی قرار گیرد، اهمیت تشخیص درست و به‌موقع نوع رژیم تورمی کشور برای اتخاذ سیاست مناسب است.

Inflation and its associated uncertainty impose costs on real economic output in every economy. In developing economies, this welfare cost is higher than those obtainable in developed countries because inflation rate is still higher than desired, mostly double-digit in Africa. In contrast to conventional conditional mean approaches, this study employed quantile regressions and cross-sectional data from 44 African countries for the period 1986 to 2015 to examine the relationship between the level of inflation and inflation uncertainty. This study considers two measures of inflation – Inflation rate and mean inflation, and three different measures of inflation uncertainty – standard deviation, relative variation and median deviation of the inflation rate. The study found evidence of positive and significant association between inflation and its uncertainty across quantiles. It also found that higher inflation brings about more inflation variability, thereby supporting the Friedman-Ball hypothesis and on the other hand high inflation uncertainty prompts rises in inflation, confirming the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. The study therefore recommend that policy makers should target low average inflation rates in order to reduce the negative consequences of inflation uncertainty, which in turn can improve economic performance in Africa.

Since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, both emerging and developed economies have encountered increased economic uncertainty. Despite substantial research on macroeconomic uncertainties, there remains a significant gap in understanding asymmetric causal relationships between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in inflation-targeting emerging markets. This study addresses this gap by exploring both symmetric and asymmetric causality between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in selected countries: Brazil, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Türkiye. Asymmetric causality tests are crucial as they offer a more nuanced view of how inflation uncertainty and economic growth impact each other in distinct ways, which is vital for enhancing macroeconomic stability and policy effectiveness. The research employs the ARMA-GARCH model to estimate inflation uncertainty and applies both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests. The findings reveal a unidirectional causality from inflation uncertainty to economic growth in Brazil and Bulgaria, and from economic growth to inflation uncertainty in Russia and Türkiye. Furthermore, asymmetric shock analysis shows that negative shocks in inflation uncertainty lead to negative shocks in economic growth in Russia and Korea, while positive shocks in inflation uncertainty correspond with positive shocks in economic growth in India. These insights can help policymakers in emerging markets develop more effective monetary policies. Future research should include a broader range of countries and additional macroeconomic variables to validate these findings and explore inflation uncertainty dynamics further.

This study analyses the linkage among inflation, inflation uncertainty andeconomic growth for Pakistan using annual time series over the period of 1972-2012. The conditional volatility of inflation is captured by ARCH model and asymmetry of shocks is captured through EGARCH model. The results show that negative shocks to error term have larger impact on variance of inflation than positive shocks. The results of Granger Causality revealed that inflation Granger causes output growth negatively and output growth Granger causes inflation uncertainty positively. In order to achieve and maintain a reasonablegrowth rate, government of Pakistan must pay proper attention to achieve price stability in the country.

The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence on the link between the two is sparse in the case of Egypt. This paper investigates the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974–April 2015. To endogenously control for any potential structural breaks in the inflation time series, Zivot and Andrews (2002) and Clemente–Montanes–Reyes (1998) unit root tests are used. The inflation–inflation uncertainty relation is modeled by the standard two-step approach as well as simultaneously using various versions of the GARCH-M model to control for any potential feedback effects. The analyses explicitly control for the effect of the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program (ERSAP) undertaken by the Egyptian government in the early 1990s, which affected inflation rate and its associated volatility. Results show a high degree of inflation–volatility persistence in the response to inflationary shocks. Granger-causality test along with symmetric and asymmetric GARCH-M models indicate a statistically significant bi-directional positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, supporting both the Friedman–Ball and the Cukierman–Meltzer hypotheses. The findings are robust to the various estimation methods and model specifications. The findings of this paper support the view of adopting inflation-targeting policy in Egypt, after fulfilling its preconditions, to reduce the welfare cost of inflation and its related uncertainties. Monetary authorities in Egypt should enhance the credibility of monetary policy and attempt to reduce inflation uncertainty, which will help lower inflation rates.

The article studies the effect of inflation uncertainty on the maturity composition of debt. It is argued that inflation uncertainty steepens the term structure of interest rates and therefore reduces the optimal maturity of debt. The inverse relationship between inflation uncertainty and debt maturity is illustrated using Canadian and U.S. government bonds. Thus the study offers evidence in support of policies that reduce inflation uncertainty.RésuméCette éude traite des effets de I'incertitude quant à I'inflation sur I'échéance de la dette. II est dit que Vincertitude quant à I'inflation rend la structure de terme des taux d'intérěAts plus abrupte et, par conséquent, diminue I'échéance optimale de la dette. La relation inverse entre Vincertitude quant à Vinflation et I'échéance de la dette est illustrée pour le cas des obligations gouvernemen‐tales du Canada et des états‐Unis. Ainsi, cet article appuie les politiques visant à diminuer l'incertitude quant à I'inflation.

Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies

This study examines the relationship between inflation uncertainty and price components in general price level. It examines which price components at general price level cause inflation uncertainty, and also which price components are more affected by such uncertainty. The Turkish economy is observed with regard to the time period between January 2003 and September 2011, and inflation uncertainty is obtained by being defined as conditional variance within the inflation process, which itself is estimated according to not only a function of its past values, but also a set of data including money supply, industrial production index, exchange rate, and interest rate. The relationship between price components and inflation uncertainty is analysed, using Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response and Variance Decompositions Analysis. As per the findings, the effect of inflation uncertainty on the price components of general price level, and similarly, the effects of price components of general price level on the inflation uncertainty differ.

This paper is first attempt to measure and analyze inflation uncertainty in Pakistan and it provides several contributions. Using quarterly data from 1976:01 to 2008:02, at first stage we model inflation uncertainty as time varying process through GARCH framework. At second stage asymmetric behavior of inflation uncertainty is analyzed by using GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models, for further analysis of asymmetry and leverage effects, we developed news impact curves proposed by Pagan and Schwert (1990). Finally we investigate the causality and its direction between inflation and inflation uncertainty by using bivariate Granger-Causality test to know which inflation uncertainty hypothesis (Friedman-Ball or Cukierman- Meltzer) holds true for Pakistani data. We get two important results. First, GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models are more successful in capturing inflation uncertainty and its asymmetric behavior as compared to simple GARCH model. This can also be seen from news impact curves. Second, there is strong evidence that Friedman-Ball inflation uncertainty hypothesis holds true for Pakistan.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia.Design/methodology/approachMultivariate EGARCH models has been used to estimate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia.FindingsUsing quarterly data in multivariate EGARCH models, this study finds that both inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty have negative and significant effects on output growth. The paper also finds that, while inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on inflation, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation. The study uses a newly constructed oil price dummy as a control variable and finds that oil price changes significantly increase inflation uncertainty. The study also finds that inflation uncertainty and the inflation level have both declined since the adoption of a formal inflation‐targeting monetary policy in Australia.Research limitations/implicationsMultivariate EGARCH model can be used to estimate the effects of inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for cross‐country analysis.Originality/valueThis is the first study of the effect of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and growth in Australia using a newly constructed oil price dummy in a multivariate EGARCH framework.

Utilizing time series data for a panel of 22 emerging countries and applying Granger causality tests, this paper extends the relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and uncertainties of inflation by including the phenomena of exchange rates and foreign capital flows. There are two specific objectives of this investigation. The first objective is to see whether uncertainty of inflation induces volatility of exchange rates, and vice versa, under differing degrees of CBI. The second objective is to explore whether the dynamics of the former relationship influence foreign capital flows in turn and, if so, whether the extent of CBI plays any role in shaping that influence. The period of study spans the years 1968 through 2013. Conditional variances for inflation and exchange rates define proxies for uncertainties of inflation and exchange rates in the empirical analysis. Additionally, annual inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) provide measures for foreign capital flows in the analysis. Results of causality tests for high and low CBI country subgroups show interesting differences. For the high CBI countries, uncertainty of inflation and uncertainty of exchange rates do not share any causal relationship whatsoever between them. However, a weak link runs from FDI to uncertainties of inflation in the long run. This may be indicative of the disciplined monetary policy and tamed inflation in these countries. Contrastingly, for the low CBI countries, there is strong evidence of causal links running from uncertainties of inflation to uncertainties of exchange rates on the one hand and to FDI flows on the other. In addition, there is indication of a bi-directional causal link between FDI flows and exchange rates for these countries.

Two arguments advanced in favor of Mexico abandoning the peso and adopting the U.S. dollar are to lower exchange rate volatility and inflation. We are not able to identify an independent link between economic growth and either the exogenous component of exchange rate volatility or the exogenous component of inflation. Exchange rate volatility generally reflects other factors, rather than representing an independent growth determinant. The findings are consistent with theoretical predictions that inflation influences growth by affecting financial development. However, we present suggestive evidence that legal reforms offer greater financial development dividends for Mexico than adopting the dollar. Two OF THE MAIN ARGUMENTS advanced in favor of Mexico abandoning the peso and adopting the U.S. dollar are (1) to lower inflation (and inflation uncertainty) and (2) to reduce exchange rate volatility. From 1960 tol995, Mexico's annual inflation rate averaged about 24.5 percent, while inflation in the United States averaged 5.5 percent. In addition, Mexico has experienced severe exchange rate fluctuations against the dollar, especially in the last fifteen years. Supporters of complete believe that reducing the rate of inflation (which moves very closely with the volatility of inflation) toward U.S. levels and eliminating exchange rate variability vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar will enhance the business climate and thereby promote economic performance. If lower inflation rates and less exchange rate variability boost growth, then this strengthens the case for dollarization. If, however, inflation and exchange rate variability do not exert large impacts on economic activity, then the arguments in favor of dollarization must be sought elsewhere. Besides inflation and exchange rate volatility, policymakers must contemplate an array of factors in deciding on dollarization. Dollarization would eliminate discretionary monetary policy and limit lender of last resort facilities during financial sec

This paper uses the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model to investigate the China’s monthly inflation rate from January 1983 to October 2005. It is found that both first moment and second moment of inflation have remarkable long memory, indicating the existence of long memory properties in both inflation level and inflation uncertainty. By the Granger-causality test on inflation rate and inflation uncertainty, it is shown that the inflation level affects the inflation uncertainty and so supports Friedman hypothesis. Therefore, as for policy maker, they should roundly concerns on long memory properties of inflation and inflation uncertainty, and their single-direction relationship between them.

In this study, the relationship between central bank independence and both inflation rate and inflation uncertainty is examined with the help of panel data analysis for BRICS-T countries, using data for the period 1995-2017. The findings reveal several notable results. First, the study finds a statistically significant and negative relationship between the level of central bank independence and inflation in BRICS-T countries. Consequently, this means that a higher degree of independence is associated with lower inflation rates. Additionally, the study reveals a statistically significant and positive relationship between central bank independence and inflation uncertainty. This shows that inflation uncertainty tends to increase as the level of independence increases. These results shed light on the complex dynamics between central bank independence, inflation, and inflation uncertainty, providing valuable information for policymakers, central banks, and researchers interested in monetary policy effectiveness and macroeconomic stability. It is recommended that future studies investigate the underlying mechanisms driving these relationships and evaluate potential differences across countries and time periods

Tujuan utama makalah ini adalah untuk mengkaji hubungan dinamik antara inflasi, kemeruapan inflasi dan pertumbuhan output bagi tempoh Januari 1980 hingga Disember 2004. Kemeruapan inflasi dianggarkan dengan menggunakan model varians bersyarat ‘exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity’ (EGARCH) dan perubahan indek pengeluaran perindustrian (IPP) digunakan sebagai proksi kepada pertumbuhan output. Teknik autoregresi vector (VAR) digunakan untuk menguji kewujudan hubungan lead-lagged antara ketiga-tiga pemboleh ubah yang dikaji. Keputusan empirikal menunjukkan wujud hubungan penyebab antara kadar inflasi dan kemeruapan inflasi. Secara amnya, kadar inflasi yang tinggi akan meningkatkan kemeruapan inflasi, selaras dengan hipotesis pertama Friedman. Seterusnya kemeruapan inflasi yang tinggi akan mengurangkan kadar inflasi seperti yang dibahaskan oleh Holland. Tambahan pula, inflasi memberi kesan negatif terhadap pertumbuhan output Malaysia. Walau bagaimanapun tiada hubungan yang wujud antara kemeruapan inflasi dan pertumbuhan output. Keputusan daripada analisis luar sampel menggunakan teknik fungsi tindak balas teritlak (GIRF) dan penghuraian varians (VDC) adalah konsisten dengan keputusan daripada analisis VAR.