Asymmetric spillovers from climate, trade, and monetary policy uncertainty to greenhouse gases: A quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach.

This study examines the impact of trade and monetary policy uncertainty during geopolitical shocks on U.S. consumer confidence. Using monthly data from January 1993 to June 2024, we find that both trade and monetary policy uncertainties have significantly shaped U.S. consumer confidence during major geopolitical events. Moreover, trade policy uncertainty significantly worsens consumer confidence during heightened geopolitical tension, while monetary policy uncertainty tends to stabilize sentiment. Our findings suggest that policymakers should implement clear and consistent trade policies during geopolitical unrest and effectively use monetary policy to reassure consumers. Ultimately, this research underscores the importance of addressing trade and monetary uncertainties to bolster economic resilience and enhance consumer confidence in challenging times.

This study endeavors to explore the shock-transmission mechanism between Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) and the volatility inherent in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Islamic stock markets by employing the novel Quantile Vector Auto Regression (QVAR) with “Extended Joint” and “Frequency” domain connectedness technique. Overall findings indicated a U-shaped pattern in the shock-transmission mechanism with the higher TPU shocks transmitted towards Islamic stock market volatility at the extreme quantiles and in the long term. The “Extended Joint” QVAR connectedness approach highlights that, in bearish and moderate-volatility conditions (τ = 0.05, 0.50), diversifying portfolios across less shock-prone equity markets like Qatar and UAE can mitigate risk exposure to TPU shocks. Specific economies receiving higher TPU shocks, like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, should implement strategic frameworks, including trade credit insurance and currency hedging, for risk reduction in trade policy shocks during the bearish and moderate-volatility conditions. Conversely, Qatar and Kuwait show the least transmission of error variance from TPU during higher-volatility conditions (τ = 0.95). Moreover, the application of the Frequency-domain QVAR technique underscores the need for short-term speculators to exercise increased vigilance during bearish and bullish volatile periods, as TPU shocks can exert a more substantial influence on the Islamic equity market volatility of Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Long-term investors may need to tailor their asset-allocation strategies by increasing allocations to more stable assets that are less susceptible to TPU shocks, such as Qatar, during bearish (τ = 0.05), moderate (τ = 0.50), and bullish (τ = 0.95) volatility.

Since the inception of the twenty-first century, there has been a profound upsurge in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) with several economic and environmental impacts. Although there exists a growing body of literature that probes the economic effects of EPU, the EPU-energy nexus yet remains understudied. To fill this gap, the current study probes the impact of disaggregated EPU (i.e., monetary, fiscal, and trade policy uncertainty) on energy consumption (EC) in the USA covering the period 1990M1-2020M12. In particular, we use sectoral EC (i.e., energy consumed by the residential sector, the industrial sector, the transport sector, the electric power sector, and the commercial sector) in consort with total EC. The findings from the bootstrap ARDL approach document that monetary policy uncertainty (MP) plunges EC, whereas trade (TP) and fiscal policy uncertainty (FP) escalate EC in the long run. On the contrary, there is a heterogeneous impact of FP and MP across sectors in the short run, while TP does not affect EC. Keeping in view the findings, we propose policy recommendations to achieve numerous Sustainable Development Goals.

Since the 2008 economic and financial crisis, the rise of populism and nationalism has been associated with increased protectionism and policy uncertainty in the world trade system, with profound side effects for international business (IB) activities and global value chains (GVCs). The aim of this paper is to investigate the way trade policy uncertainty linked to Brexit has affected firms’ behaviors along the GVC of the UK textile and apparel (T&A) industry. We draw upon data from an original survey carried out between June 2019 and January 2020 with 688 firms amongst UK T&A manufacturers, designers, and retailers to grasp their perception of Brexit uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty over trade policy between the UK and the EU – started in the wake of the 2016 referendum – has affected a significant number of firms operating upstream and downstream of the UK T&A value chain, which shows clear signs of ongoing restructuring. Our findings also provide some preliminary evidence of the way the (perceived) effects of trade policy uncertainty may vary depending on firms’ position, production phase, and degree of integration in the GVC. Policy directions for supporting the UK T&A value chain post-Brexit and implications for future IB research are discussed.

SummaryWe study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Decomposing the trade policy shocks further suggests that trade policy uncertainty dominates tariff level effects. Chinese trade policy shocks against the United States further hurt US stocks.

This study explores the influence of trade policy uncertainty on medical innovation investment in developing nations from 1980 to 2020, with a focus on the period of COVID-19. We used exogenous and heterogeneous exposure to trade-policy-uncertainty resolutions from developing countries’ trade policy adjustments, which reduced tariff hikes on imported goods in a double difference-in-differences method. ARDL with PVAR has been studied for long-run and short-run analyses. The findings revealed that reducing tariff uncertainty boosts innovation beyond patent filings and margin reaction and exports. Long-term impacts of sectoral innovation patterns, governmental changes, and foreign technology entering developing nations have little effect on the findings. This paper also shows a long-term link between medical innovation, trade policy uncertainty, and research-and-development spending. Innovation’s negative response to the innovation shock and research and development’s positive response corroborates bidirectional and unidirectional causality. This study contributes to medical innovation and policy uncertainty in terms of developing countries and, most importantly, in trends of medical innovation, contemporaneous policy uncertainty given the inflow of foreign technology, and the importance of that technology recent times.

U.S. trade protectionism has frequently risen recently, and trade policy fluctuations have become increasingly significant. In this context, examining the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade is of great significance to China’s response to changes in the international trade situation, guaranteeing national food security and promoting sustainable agricultural development. From the statistical data, the U.S. trade policy uncertainty and China’s grain imports primarily show a reverse trend, and China’s grain exports show a positive trend. To further explore the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade, this study selects the monthly data from July 2003 to December 2022. It conducts impulse response analysis by constructing a vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility. It is found that the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on China’s grain trade has prominent time-varying characteristics and point-in-time effects, and the impact on different kinds of grain is heterogeneous. In this regard, China needs to clarify the nature of the trade dispute between China and the United States, reasonably utilize the multilateral coordination mechanism of the WTO, coordinate the international and domestic markets, adjust the short board of grain trade, and safeguard the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture.

Purpose: The general objective of the study was to explore the economic policies and their influence on livestock market dynamics. Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library. Findings: The findings reveal that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to economic policies and their influence on livestock market dynamics. Preliminary empirical review revealed that fiscal policies, such as subsidies and tax incentives, play a crucial role in reducing production costs and stabilizing market supply. Likewise, monetary policies, including interest rate adjustments, influence investment and innovation within the sector. Trade policies, such as tariffs and free trade agreements, affect market competitiveness and access to international markets. Regulatory policies concerning animal health and environmental protection ensure product quality and consumer confidence. The study emphasizes the need for balanced and well-designed policies across all these areas to support the sustainable growth of the livestock industry. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Keynesian Economic Theory, Neoclassical Economic Theory and Institutional Economic Theory may be used to anchor future studies on economic policies and their influence on livestock market dynamics. The study significantly advances theoretical understanding by elucidating the intricate relationship between economic policies and livestock market dynamics. It recommends further exploration into the interplay of fiscal, monetary, trade, and regulatory policies to develop comprehensive models predicting market behavior accurately. Practically, the study advises livestock producers to adopt adaptive management practices, staying informed about policy changes and implementing flexible business strategies. Industry associations are urged to disseminate policy information and support farmers in navigating shifts. From a policy standpoint, coherence, targeting, and responsiveness to sectoral needs are underscored, advocating for a holistic approach to policy design. Fiscal policies should support short-term stability and long-term sustainability, targeting critical areas like feed costs and infrastructure. Monetary policies should balance investment stimulation with inflation control, while trade and regulatory policies should negotiate balanced agreements and stringent standards to ensure competitiveness and safety in the global market. Keywords: Economic Policies, Livestock Market Dynamics, Fiscal Policies, Monetary Policies, Trade Policies, Adaptive Management Practices, Industry Associations, Policy Coherence

I examine the import price pass-through and its heterogeneity across consumers in the Great Trade Collapse (GTC) by linking US import prices and barcode-level consumer prices. I estimate the import price impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) across industries in 2004-2011 and use it as first stage to identify the import price pass-through rate to consumers. I find this rate ranges from 0.2-0.4 and is heterogeneous: higher for consumers with lower income and in markets with higher retail competition. The differences in pass-through across consumers are magnified after adjusting for the availability of varieties. To explain these findings, I build on Burstein and Gopinath (2014) to model domestic distribution services with variable markups and extend it to allow for consumer price heterogeneity. Differences in consumer expenditure shares across varieties with different pass-through and differential pass-through for the same variety across consumers account for the heterogeneous pass-through, with the former plays a more important role. A quantitative exercise shows that consumer prices of the affected goods increase by 0.87% to 1.4% on average in response to 25% tariffs on Chinese imports.

Purpose Recent empirical studies by Antonakakis, Chatziantoniou and Filis (2013), Brogaard and Detzel (2015) and Christou et al. (2017) present evidence, which supports the notion that a rise in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) will lead to a decline in stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine US categorical policy uncertainty on stock returns while controlling for implied volatility and downside risk. In addition to the domestic impacts of policy uncertainty, this paper also presents evidence that changes in US policy uncertainty promptly propagates to the global stock markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a GED-GARCH (1, 1) model to estimate changes of uncertainties in US monetary, fiscal and trade policies on stock returns for the sample period of January 1990–December 2018. Robustness test is conducted by using different set of data and modeling techniques. Findings This paper contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, testing of US aggregate data while controlling for downside risk and implied volatility, consistently, shows that responses of stock prices to US policy uncertainty changes, not only display a negative effect in the current period but also have at least a one-month time-lag. The evidence supports the uncertainty premium hypothesis. Second, extending the test to global data reveals that US policy uncertainty changes have a negative impact on markets in Europe, China and Japan. Third, testing the data in sectoral stock markets mainly displays statistically significant results with a negative sign. Fourth, the evidence consistently shows that changes in policy uncertainty present an inverse relation to the stock returns, regardless of whether uncertainty is moving upward or downward. Research limitations/implications The current research is limited to the markets in the USA, eurozone, China and Japan. This study can be extended to additional countries, such as emerging markets. Practical implications This paper provides a model that uses categorical policy uncertainty approach to explain stock price changes. The parametric estimates provide insightful information in advising investors for making portfolio decision. Social implications The estimated coefficients of changes in monetary policy uncertainty, fiscal policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty are informative in assisting policymakers to formulate effective financial policies. Originality/value This study extends the existing risk premium model in several directions. First, it separates the financial risk factors from the EPU innovations; second, instead of using EPU, this study investigates the effects from monetary policy, fiscal policy and trade policy uncertainties; third, in additional to an examination of the effects of US categorical policy uncertainties on its own markets, this study also investigates the spillover effects to global major markets; fourth, besides the aggregate stock markets, this study estimates the effects of US policy uncertainty innovations on the sectoral stock returns.

Coalitions that Clash: California's Climate Leadership and the Perpetuation of Environmental Inequality

The trade tensions between the United States and its trading partners, which started in 2018, have raised uncertainty about future trade policy. In this chapter, trade policy uncertainty is modeled as an increase in the discount rate of exporting firms using the firm heterogeneity module of the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM). Three insights from the literature are combined to model increased trade policy uncertainty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model: (i) a theoretical framework on trade policy uncertainty in a setting of firm heterogeneity; (ii) gravity estimates on the trade effects of tariff uncertainty as measured by “water” in the tariffs; (iii) estimates on optimal tariffs in case of a trade war. The expectation that tariffs could rise to the noncooperative (trade war) level increases current trade policy uncertainty and thus reduces firm entry into export markets. The effects of a trade war itself are also explored. The analysis leads to three main findings. First, the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty about trade policy are considerable, whereas the effects are much more limited if the hike in uncertainty is constrained to uncertainty about trade policy between the United States and its trading partners. Second, the effects of a trade war itself are in general an order of magnitude larger than the effects of uncertainty. The negative real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) effects of uncertainty about trade policy in the global trade war scenario range between 0.22% and 1.07%, whereas the tariff war itself could reduce real GDP by between 0.76% and 2.37%. Third, global trade is projected to be moderately affected by trade policy uncertainty with trade falling by up to 5%, whereas a trade war would reduce the value of trade by double digit numbers in most regions.

We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively, increasing market uncertainty, lowering interest rates, and leading to an appreciation of the US-Dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Regarding shock types, we reveal a dominating trade policy uncertainty shock and a weaker level shock. Chinese trade policy shocks against the US further hurt US stocks.

Major US electric utility climate pledges have the potential to collectively reduce power sector emissions by one-third

The escalating Sino-US trade war has led to a global economic contraction and increased trade policy uncertainties. This study examines the impacts of the US and China’s Trade Policy Uncertainties (TPU Indexes) on these countries’ Bilateral Trade Balances (BTBs). Empirical findings reveal that both increases and decreases in the TPU Indexes of both the US and China significantly affect their respective BTBs. Furthermore, it can be concluded that China’s trade policy or Chinese exporters-importers react to China’s trade policy uncertainty within China more than the US trade policy or US exporters-importers to US trade policy uncertainty within the USA. Another important conclusion is that China’s trade policy or exporters-importers react more to their own trade policy uncertainty than the US’s trade policy uncertainty within China. The policy implications generated from the empirical findings of this study for policymakers in both countries are presented in the paper’s final section.