Abstract
Rationale: In numerous cohorts, lung function decline is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular-cause mortality, but the association between the decrease in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and cancer-cause mortality, particularly after occupational/environmental exposure(s), is unclear. Exposure to dust/smoke from the World Trade Center (WTC) disaster caused inflammation and lung injury in Fire Department of the City of New York rescue/recovery workers. In addition, prior research found that >10% of the cohort experienced greater than twice the age-related decrease in FEV1 (⩾64 ml/yr). Objectives: To evaluate the association of longitudinal lung function with all-cause and cancer-cause mortality after exposure to the WTC disaster. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study using longitudinal prebronchodilator FEV1 data for 12,264 WTC-exposed firefighters and emergency medical service providers. All-cause and cancer-cause mortality were ascertained using National Death Index data from September 12, 2001, through December 31, 2021. Joint longitudinal survival models evaluated the association of baseline FEV1 and change in FEV1 from baseline with all-cause and cancer-cause mortality adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, height, smoking, work assignment (firefighters vs. emergency medical service providers), and WTC exposure. Results: By December 31, 2021, 607 of the 12,264 individuals in the cohort (4.9%) had died (crude rate = 259.5 per 100,000 person-years), and 190 of 12,264 (1.5%) had died from cancer (crude rate = 81.2 per 100,000 person-years). Baseline FEV1 was ⩾80% predicted in 10,970 of the 12,264 (89.4%); final FEV1 was ⩾80% in 9,996 (81.5%). Lower FEV1 at baseline was associated with greater risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per liter = 2.32; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.98-2.72) and cancer-cause mortality (HR per liter = 1.99; 95% CI = 1.49-2.66). Longitudinally, each 100-ml/yr decrease in FEV1 was associated with an 11% increase in all-cause mortality (HR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.06-1.15) and a 7% increase in cancer-cause mortality (HR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.00-1.15). Compared with FEV1 decrease <64 ml/yr, those with FEV1 decrease ⩾64 ml/yr had higher all-cause (HR = 2.91; 95% CI = 2.37-3.56) and cancer-cause mortality (HR = 2.68; 95% CI = 1.90-3.79). Conclusions: Baseline FEV1 and longitudinal FEV1 decrease are associated with increased risk of all-cause and cancer-cause mortality in a previously healthy occupational cohort, the majority of whom had normal lung function, after intense exposure to dust/smoke. Further investigation is needed to define pathways by which lung function impacts mortality after an irritant exposure.
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