Association between Low-carbohydrate Diets and 10-year Atherosclerosis Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline recommends initiation of antihypertensive medication for adults with stage 1 hypertension (systolic blood pressure, 130-139 mm Hg, or diastolic blood pressure, 80-89 mm Hg) and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ≥10% estimated by the pooled cohort equations (PCEs). In 2023, the American Heart Association published the predicting risk of cardiovascular disease events (PREVENT) equations to estimate ASCVD and total cardiovascular disease risk. We analyzed US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2013 to 2020 for 1703 adults aged 30 to 79 years without self-reported cardiovascular disease with stage 1 hypertension. We estimated 10-year ASCVD risk by the PCEs and 10-year ASCVD and total cardiovascular disease risk by the base PREVENT equations. Analyses were weighted to represent noninstitutionalized US adults with stage 1 hypertension. Mean 10-year ASCVD risk was 5.4% (95% CI, 5.0%-5.9%) and 2.9% (95% CI, 2.7%-3.1%) using the PCEs and PREVENT equations, respectively. The proportion with 10-year ASCVD risk of 10% to <15% and ≥15% was 8.1% and 7.8% estimated by the PCEs, respectively, and 3.0% and 0.3% estimated by the PREVENT equations, respectively. No participants had a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% on the PREVENT equations and <10% on the PCEs, while 12.5% had a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% on the PCEs and <10% on the PREVENT equations. The mean 10-year total cardiovascular disease risk estimated by the PREVENT equations was lower than the mean 10-year ASCVD risk on the PCEs. Among US adults with stage 1 hypertension, the 10-year predicted ASCVD risk estimated by the PREVENT equations was approximately half the risk estimated by the PCEs.

Introduction: Life’s Essential 8 (LE8) is a metric of overall cardiovascular health (CVH) while 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is routinely used to guide primary prevention. Yet, the relationship between LE8 and 10-year ASCVD risk is unclear. Hypothesis: CVH has an inverse relationship with 10-year ASCVD risk in adults aged 40–75 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020 cycle. Methods: Adults with ASCVD and data missing to calculate 10-year ASCVD risk and LE8 scores were excluded. LE8 score was estimated from the mean of LE8 components (scored 0 to 100), with scores ≥80, 79–50, and &lt;49 grouped into ideal, intermediate, and poor CVH, respectively. 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated using pooled cohort equation, with scores &lt;5%, 5–19.9%, and ≥20% grouped as low, borderline/intermediate, and high risk, respectively. The survey weighted chi-square and ANOVA analysis was performed. Results: We included 1,550 adults representing nearly 45 million US adults with a mean age of 57.8 years, 35.3% women. Overall, 35.4%, 42.3%, and 22.3% had low, borderline/intermediate, and high 10-year ASCVD risk, respectively. Low, borderline/intermediate, and high-risk individuals had a mean LE8 score of 68.2, 61.8, and 62.6 (p-value: &lt;0.001) while 18.1%, 7.4%, and 5.6% (p-value: 0.002) had ideal CVH, respectively. Diet, nicotine exposure, body mass index (BMI), and blood lipids metrics were very low across the risk groups (figure). Additionally, the mean blood pressure metric was 41.3 among high-risk and 61.1 among intermediate/borderline-risk individuals. Conclusions: The prevalence of ideal CVH is very low across all 10-year ASCVD risk groups primarily due to poor diet, nicotine exposure, high BMI, and high blood lipids. Since ASCVD risk is predominantly age-dependent and given comparable LE8 scores among borderline/intermediate and high-risk individuals, LE8 may denote an age-independent long-term/lifetime risk.

PurposeAs a powerful indicator of arterial stiffening, the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) has been extensively validated for predicting cardiovascular events. However, whether and how the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is correlated with the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association between baPWV and 10-year ASCVD risk in Chinese population.MethodsA total of 1768 subjects were enrolled from Shanghai, China. They were divided into two groups according to the Pooled Cohorts Equations model made by ACC/AHA as follows: low ASCVD risk (n = 992, 10-year ASCVD risk <7.5%) and high ASCVD risk (n = 776, 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%). The baseline characteristics were obtained via the use of a questionnaire. Measurement of baPWV, laboratory tests, and echocardiography were conducted by trained physicians. The relationship between baPWV and 10-year ASCVD risk was evaluated using multiple logistic regression model and generalized additive model.ResultsThe mean age of the subjects was 58.89±8.60 years, 32.69% of which were male. Non-linear relationship analysis revealed threshold effects between baPWV and 10-year ASCVD risk in which a baPWV of approximately 16 m/s might be the threshold effect of 10-year ASCVD risk. After multivariable adjustment, logistic-regression analysis demonstrated that ankle-brachial index (ABI) (OR 5.28, 95% CI 1.20–12.23) and baPWV (OR 9.09, 95% CI 6.84–12.07) were independently correlated with 10-year ASCVD risk. The AUC for baPWV for predicting 10-year ASCVD risk was 0.80 (95% CI 0.78–0.82).ConclusionIncreased baPWV as an indicator of arterial stiffness correlates strongly with 10-year ASCVD risk in general middle-aged and elderly populations. The association between baPWV and 10-year ASCVD risk is not purely linear but non-linear. Subjects with baPWV above 16 m/s are more likely to encounter a higher 10-year ASCVD risk.

This study sought to determine if dietary macronutrient consumption and the low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) score were linked to rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Participants ≥ 20years were analyzed from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2016. LCD score was calculated by summing the 11 quantiles values of the percentages of energy derived from carbohydrate, protein, and fat. Weighted logistic regression, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) models were used to explore the relationship between LCD score, dietary macronutrient intake, and RA. Propensity score matching (PSM) were applied for sensitivity analysis. Ultimately, 8118 participants (RA: 499, without RA: 7619) were analyzed. After fully adjusting for confounders, a negative association was found between the LCD score and the presence of RA [OR (95% CI), 0.97 (0.96, 0.99)]. A higher LCD score was also negatively associated with a lower likelihood of RA based on a categorical model. Among macronutrients, participants in the third and fourth quartiles had significantly increased odds of RA compared with the lowest carbohydrate intake. Regarding protein intake, individuals in the highest quartile of percentage of energy from protein had a 46% lower presence of RA compared with the lowest reference group. The relative importance of the LCD score on RA was determined based on XGBoost and LightGBM models. Moreover, the association between the LCD score, dietary macronutrient intake, and RA presence remained substantial after PSM. LCD score was negatively associated with odds of RA in US adults. Moreover, a correlation was found between a lower likelihood of RA and high protein, and low carbohydrate consumption. Key Points • A significant negative association was found between LCD score and RA presence. • Machine learning models revealed the LCD score was a significant predictor of the presence of RA. • Low carbohydrate intake and high protein intake were correlated with a lower odds of RA.

Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk among community residents in Shanghai, China

The aim of this study is to assess the associations of urinary genistein and endothelial activation and stress index (EASIX) with 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. This cross-sectional analysis employed data obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Weighted univariable and multivariable logistic regression models examined EASIX-ASCVD risk correlations, with odds ratio and 95% confidence interval [OR (95%CI)] as effect measures. The potential interactions were explored between EASIX and genistein on 10-year ASCVD risk using additive and multiplicative interaction analyses. The relationships of EASIX and 10-year ASCVD risk were further assessed at different genistein levels. Subgroup analyses examined age, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia categories. Totally, 4478 eligible participants were stratified into low-risk (n = 2157) and high-risk (n = 2321) ASCVD groups. Elevated levels of EASIX (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.18-1.54), EASIXmedian ≥ 0.427 (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.14-1.73), EASIXRCS ≥ 0.434 (OR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.18-1.77), EASIXquartile (0.325-0.427, OR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.05-2.07; 0.427-0.567, OR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.08-2.10; ≥ 0.567, OR = 2.08, 95% CI 1.57-2.77), and log2(EASIX) (OR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.19-1.46) were associated with higher odds of 10-year ASCVD. Low genistein levels presented no significant correlation with 10-year ASCVD risk. The multiplicative interaction between EASIX and genistein levels was significant. When genistein levels < 54.105µg/g, the connections between elevated EASIX levels and higher 10-year ASCVD risk were established in subgroups of age < 60years, BMI ≥ 25kg/m2, non-diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Elevated EASIX levels correlated with a higher 10-year ASCVD risk. Whether genistein modulates this association requires further validation, which may have potential implications for ASCVD prevention strategies in the general population.

Associations between Low-Carbohydrate Diets from Animal and Plant Sources and Dyslipidemia among Korean Adults

Association of 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score with Carotid Atherosclerosis in Middle-Aged Abdominal Obesity Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017-2022) and Shaoguan (2019-2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability. During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women. Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.

This study compares the effectiveness of sleeve gastrectomy (SG) and one-anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB) on the predicted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and identifies key factors influencing postoperative (post-op) changes in ASCVD risk. This prospective cohort study assessed the 10-year ASCVD risk in patients undergoing SG or OAGB between 2013 and 2023 using the ACC/AHA ASCVD Risk Estimator. In addition to the baseline assessment, the risk score was evaluated at 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 months post-op. Longitudinal analysis tracked changes in ASCVD risk, and regression models identified individual and combined factors influencing these changes. The analysis enrolled 1397 individuals (mean age 50.1 years, 87.9% female), including 952 SG and 445 OAGB participants. Following adjustments, the 10-year ASCVD risk significantly reduced post-op with no observed differences between the surgical groups. Positive associations with risk reduction were found for baseline risk, total cholesterol (TC), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), triglycerides (TG), systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In contrast, age, triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), male sex, smoking, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) demonstrated negative associations with ASCVD risk reduction. Metabolic and bariatric surgery significantly reduced the 10-year ASCVD risk, with comparable outcomes between SG and OAGB. Key determinants influencing the 10-year ASCVD risk reduction included baseline risk score, age, TC, T2DM, TyG index, TG, HbA1c, SBP, sex, FPG, smoking, HDL-C, and eGFR.

BackgroundCardiovascular disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), a reliable indicator of arterial stiffness, predicts cardiovascular events. The arterial stiffness automated measurement system (AMAS) streamlines the measurement of cfPWV, potentially increasing its clinical utility. Although carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is a well-established marker of subclinical atherosclerosis (AS), its predictive value for cardiovascular events in T2DM may be restricted. This study aimed to explore the application of cfPWV measured by the AMAS in cardiovascular risk assessment of patients with T2DM, aiming to provide a new clinical basis for identifying high-risk individuals with T2DM and to ascertain whether cfPWV offers superior assessment of vascular health compared to cIMT in this patient population.MethodsThis study used a cross-sectional study design. A total of 126 consecutive patients with T2DM meeting the 1999 World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for diabetes and aged 20–80 years were recruited at the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University from February 2023 to October 2023. Continuous variables were analyzed with analysis of variance (ANOVA)/Welch’s test for normal distribution and Kruskal-Wallis for non-normal data, with chi-square for counts. Regression models assessed cfPWV influences and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk correlation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves evaluated predictive accuracy, and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) assessed repeatability. The prediction for ASCVD risk in China (China-PAR) model was utilized for 10-year ASCVD risk assessment and stratification, categorizing patients into three groups: low, moderate, and high risk, with thresholds of <5%, 5–9.9%, and ≥10%, respectively. cfPWV was estimated using the ultrasonic AMAS system, and cIMT was measured using high-frequency ultrasound.ResultsThe 10-year ASCVD risk among participants was 6.35% [interquartile range (IQR): 3.75–10.30%] and the cfPWV values were 8.31 (IQR, 7.13–9.87) m/s. Furthermore, the 10-year ASCVD risk tended to increase with increasing cfPWV (P<0.05), with an elevated risk of 0.875% for every 1 m/s rise in cfPWV [B =0.875, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.596–1.155, P<0.001]. cfPWV was shown to be an independent risk factor for a high 10-year ASCVD risk [odds ratio (OR) =2.015, 95% CI: 1.399–2.902, P<0.001]. cfPWV was more effective than cIMT in predicting the 10-year ASCVD risk as high in patients with T2DM (area under the curve =0.852 vs. 0.722, P=0.038).ConclusionscfPWV, as measured by the ultrasonic AMAS system, exhibited efficacy in screening for patients with T2DM at elevated 10-year ASCVD risk, with its performance surpassing that of cIMT. This method holds potential in aiding clinicians to identify high-risk patients more promptly, thus enabling early intervention and enhancing personalized treatment strategies for patients.

This study estimates reductions in 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk associated with EvidenceNOW, a multi-state initiative that sought to improve cardiovascular preventive care in the form of (A)spirin prescribing for high-risk patients, (B)lood pressure control for people with hypertension, (C)holesterol management, and (S)moking screening and cessation counseling (ABCS) among small primary care practices by providing supportive interventions such as practice facilitation. We conducted an analytic modeling study that combined (1) data from 1,278 EvidenceNOW practices collected 2015 to 2017; (2) patient-level information of individuals ages 40 to 79 years who participated in the 2015 to 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 1,295); and (3) 10-year ASCVD risk prediction equations. The primary outcome measure was 10-year ASCVD risk. EvidenceNOW practices cared for an estimated 4 million patients ages 40 to 79 who might benefit from ABCS interventions. The average 10-year ASCVD risk of these patients before intervention was 10.11%. Improvements in ABCS due to EvidenceNOW reduced their 10-year ASCVD risk to 10.03% (absolute risk reduction: -0.08, P ≤ .001). This risk reduction would prevent 3,169 ASCVD events over 10 years and avoid $150 million in 90-day direct medical costs. Small preventive care improvements and associated reductions in absolute ASCVD risk levels can lead to meaningful life-saving benefits at the population level.

Recent research has identified the Low-Carbohydrate Diet (LCD) score as a novel biomarker, with studies showing that LCDs can reduce carbon dioxide retention, potentially improving lung function. While the link between the LCD score and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been explored, its relevance in the US population remains uncertain. This study aims to explore the association between the LCD score and the likelihood of COPD prevalence in this population. Data from 16,030 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) collected between 2007 and 2023 were analyzed to examine the relationship between LCD score and COPD. Propensity score matching (PSM) was employed to reduce baseline bias. Weighted multivariable logistic regression models were applied, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression was used to explore possible nonlinear relationships. Subgroup analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of the results. Additionally, we employed eight machine learning methods-Boost Tree, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, MLP, Naive Bayes, KNN, Random Forest, and SVM RBF-to build predictive models and evaluate their performance. Based on the best-performing model, we further examined variable importance and model accuracy. Upon controlling for variables, the LCD score demonstrated a strong correlation with the odds of COPD prevalence. In compared to the lowest quartile, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for the high quartile were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.95), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.93), and 0.61 (95% CI: 0.48, 0.78). RCS analysis demonstrated a linear inverse relationship between the LCD score and the odds of COPD prevalence. Furthermore, the random forest model exhibited robust predictive efficacy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 71.6%. Our study of American adults indicates that adherence to the LCD may be linked to lower odds of COPD prevalence. These findings underscore the important role of the LCD score as a tool for enhancing COPD prevention efforts within the general population. Nonetheless, additional prospective cohort studies are required to assess and validate these results.

Lower extremity peripheral artery disease (LEPAD) is a common and serious health-threatening disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk equations from the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) project for incident LEPAD after 6.75 ± 0.13 years of follow-up. A total of 3,595 Chinese participants without baseline ASCVD or LEPAD from a community-based cohort were enrolled in our study. The mean (interquartile range) baseline 10-year China-PAR ASCVD risk was 4.35% (2.24–8.44%), and the incidence of new-onset LEPAD during 6.75 ± 0.13 years was 4.23%. In univariable logistic regression analysis, 10-year China-PAR ASCVD risk was significantly associated with LEPAD incidence (odds ratio [OR] for each 1% increase in the risk score = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03–1.08, P < 0.001). After adjusting confounders, the relationship remained significant (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05–1.1. P < 0.001). Participants with the highest risk (≥10%) had significantly increased risk compared to those with the lowest risk (<5%) (OR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.15–6.07, P = 0.022). Further interaction analyses showed no evidence of heterogeneity according to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, drinking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, renal function, waist circumference, and family history. In conclusion, 10-year China-PAR ASCVD risk independently predicted the risk of new-onset LEPAD in a Chinese community-based population, indicating the importance of polyvascular diseases (PVDs) and the intrinsic interactions of its components.

Background. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a commonly diagnosed cancer. Glucose intake enhances the secretion of insulin, may contribute to cell growth and proliferation, leading to CRC development. Epidemiologic studies have shown that individuals with diabetes history are at increased risk of CRC. A low-carbohydrate diet, represented by a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) score, may reduce the risk of diabetes. Yet, little is known about the association between LCD scores and the risk of CRC. Methods. We evaluated the associations between LCD and CRC risk in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a population-based prospective cohort study that includes 61,321 Chinese men and women in Singapore who were 45-74 years old at enrollment. Food and dietary supplement consumption were assessed by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Participants were assigned a score from 0 to 10 according to their rankings by daily intake of calories from carbohydrates, fat and protein, respectively. A score of 0 was assigned to a subject ranked in the highest one-eleventh of calorie intake from carbohydrates or in the lowest one-eleventh of calories from fat or protein, respectively. In contrast, a score of 10 was given to each subject in the lowest one-eleventh of carbohydrate intake or the highest one-eleventh of fat or protein intake. The LCD score for each subject was the sum of the 3 individual ranking scores. The highest possible value was 30, which represented the lowest carbohydrate intake and the highest fat and protein. In addition, animal-based and plant-based LCDs were similarly created from the daily consumption of calories from animal or plant protein and fat, respectively, as well as carbohydrates. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CRC according to higher quartiles of LCD scores with adjustment for potential confounders. Results. After an average of 17.5 years of follow-up, 2,140 participants developed CRC. Overall, there was a null association between total LCD and CRC risk. A moderate positive association was found for animal-based LCD with CRC risk. The multivariable-adjusted HRs(95%CIs) for CRC in quartiles 2, 3, and 4 of animal-based LCD were 1.12(0.99-1.26), 1.18(1.04-1.33), and 1.11(0.98-1.25)(Ptrend=0.06) compared with the lowest quartile. There were no statistically significant differences in the animal-based LCD and CRC risk in subgroups stratified by sex, body mass index, smoking status, and history of type 2 diabetes. Conclusions. This large population-based prospective cohort study shows that a high animal-based LCD score, which represented low intake of carbohydrates and high intake of animal protein and fat, was associated with ~10% increased risk of CRC. Our findings suggest that replacing low-carbohydrate food with animal-based food may increase the risk of developing CRC. Citation Format: Yi-Chuan Yu, Pedram Paragomi, Aizhen Jin, Renwei Wang, Robert E. Schoen, Woon-Puay Koh, Jian-Min Yuan, Hung N. Luu. Low-carbohydrate diet score and the risk of colorectal cancer: Findings from a prospective cohort study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 735.