Abstract
Water is essential to all lifeforms including various ecological, geological, hydrological, and climatic processes/activities. With the changing climate, associated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events appear to stimulate highly uncertain patterns of precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (EV) processes across the globe. Changes in P and EV patterns are highly sensitive to temperature (T) variation and thus also affect natural streamflow processes. This paper presents a novel suite of stochastic modelling approaches for associating streamflow sequences with climatic trends. The present work is built upon a stochastic modelling framework (HMM_GP) that integrates a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution for simulating synthetic flow sequences. The GP distribution within the HMM_GP model aims to improve the model’s efficiency in effectively simulating extreme events. This paper further investigated the potential of generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) coupled with an HMM model within a regression-based scheme for associating the impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration processes on streamflow. The statistical characteristic of the pioneering modelling schematic was thoroughly assessed for its suitability to generate and predict synthetic river flow sequences for a set of future climatic projections, specifically during ENSO events. The new modelling schematic can be adapted for a range of applications in hydrology, agriculture, and climate change.
Highlights
Rivers are socio-economically valuable assets, providing a range of hydro-ecological services, such as agriculture, fishing, recreational space, landscape scenery, a healthy environment for society, and habitats for a range of marine and terrestrial species
Most of these studies concluded that streamflow is highly sensitive to projected future climate change and extreme events [4,5,6]
As scientific evidence grows, it is widely accepted that the frequency, intensity, severity, duration, temporal ranges, and spatial extent of extreme events will change considerably in future climate change [7,8]
Summary
Rivers are socio-economically valuable assets, providing a range of hydro-ecological services, such as agriculture, fishing, recreational space, landscape scenery, a healthy environment for society, and habitats for a range of marine and terrestrial species. Streamflow can be considered a complex manifestation of interacting and overlapping spatio-temporarily distributed physical, environmental, and hydro-morphological processes, such as climate change, sediment transport, etc. A large amount of research has been conducted to understand the impact of anthropogenic climate change on streamflow and the associated hydro-ecological services. Most of these studies concluded that streamflow is highly sensitive to projected future climate change and extreme events [4,5,6]. As scientific evidence grows, it is widely accepted that the frequency, intensity, severity, duration, temporal ranges, and spatial extent of extreme events (such as flooding, droughts, heatwaves) will change considerably in future climate change [7,8]
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