Asset Allocation in the Chinese Stock Market:The Role of Return Predictability

Abstract

While numerous studies have analyzed the asset allocation issue of US stock market from various angles, much less attention has been paid to the asset allocation issue of Chinese stock market. This article investigates the asset allocation in Chinese stock market from a perspective of incorporating return predictability. We find significant out-of-sample return predictability in Chinese stock market based on a host of return predictors. We then examine the performance of active portfolio strategies such as aggregate market timing strategy, and industry, size, and value rotation strategies to profitably exploit return predictability. We provide strong evidence that these portfolio strategies incorporating return predictability can deliver superior outperformance up to 600 basis points per annum and almost double the Sharpe ratios compared to the passive buy-and-hold benchmarks ignoring return predictability.