Assessment of Streamflow Variability with Upgraded HydroClimatic Conceptual Streamflow Model

Abstract

HydroClimatic Conceptual Streamflow (HCCS) model is a conceptual model for prediction and future assessment of daily streamflow using climate inputs and time-varying watershed characteristics. However, without denying its useful salient features in a changing climate, applicability of the HCCS model is limited to the basins without any major man-made river structure(s), such as reservoirs. Considering this, the originally proposed HCCS model is upgraded (hereinafter ‘upgraded HCCS model’) to accommodate the human-intervened release from such structures within the basin, if any, and to include routing component through the river channels without using rigorous information from the river channels. The upgraded HCCS model is expected to be useful to assess (i) the effect on the streamflow at downstream due to upstream dam release, and (ii) the long-term modification required in the reservoir/dam operation under a changing climate for ensuring water-availability in downstream. The upgraded HCCS model is applied to three river basins for assessing the future streamflow characteristics. Two of these basins have one each and the third basin has two major man-made river structures within them. Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) simulated climate variables till 2035 are used as inputs for demonstration. The model predicts an increase in streamflow in future. In general, the upgraded HCCS model can be applied to any tropical river basin having major man-made river structure(s) for daily streamflow prediction as well as assessment of future streamflow variation considering the changing climate and watershed characteristics.