Assessment of Stakeholders’ Perceptions of Landuse/Landcover Change Drivers in Abuja, Nigeria

South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) has been a hotspot for land use and land cover change (LULCC) in the past few decades. The identification and quantification of the drivers of LULCC are crucial for improving our understanding of LULCC trends. So far, the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change have not been quantified at the regional scale, particularly for SSEA. In this study, we quantify the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change on a country-by-country basis in SSEA using an integrated quantitative methodology, which systematically accounts for previously published driver information and regional datasets. We synthesize more than 200 publications to identify the drivers of the forest change at different spatial scales in SSEA. Subsequently, we collect spatially explicit proxy data to represent the identified drivers. We quantify the dynamics of forest and agricultural land from 1992 to 2015 using the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) land cover data developed by the European Space Agency (ESA). A geographically weighted regression method is employed to quantify the spatially heterogeneous drivers of forest change. Our results show that socioeconomic drivers are more important than biophysical drivers for the conversion of forest to agricultural land in South Asia and maritime Southeast Asia. In contrast, biophysical drivers are more important than socioeconomic drivers for the conversion of agricultural land to forest in maritime Southeast Asia and less important in South Asia. Both biophysical and socioeconomic drivers contribute approximately equally to both changes in the mainland Southeast Asia region. By quantifying the dynamics of forest and agricultural land and the spatially explicit drivers of their changes in SSEA, this study provides a solid foundation for LULCC modeling and projection.

Data from a domestic violence non-governmental organization (NGO) in Cyprus was used to determine whether differences between urban and rural dwellers are present. Previous literature has indicated inconsistency in the actions of service providers in rural and urban settings, as well as a wide range of factors (for example, shame, religion) that may be able to justify any possible differences between rural and urban dwellers in their use of services for domestic violence. On the basis of the existing literature, we expected fewer calls from rural dwellers, no differences between the two samples on the services they would request and receive from the NGO, and finally, rural dwellers would have less access to services than urban dwellers. Data was obtained from SPAVO, the only NGO dealing with domestic violence in Cyprus. This data covered a 2-year period (2011–2012) and is gathered by SPAVO’s call centre from people calling the request information or report an incident of abuse. Results indicated no differences in the services the victims from both areas received before contacting the NGO, requested from the NGO and were subsequently recommended. One significant finding was that both rural and urban dwellers reported low levels of requesting services related to domestic violence before contacting the NGO. The discussion centres on possible reasons for this finding and implications for future research.

Urbanization can profoundly alter socioecological relationships, but its influence on how people perceive and value ecosystem services (ES) is poorly understood. We reviewed an emerging literature in which sociocultural valuation of ES is compared among urban and rural dwellers. This research suggests that, although regulating and cultural ES were highly valued by both rural and urban dwellers, urban dwellers tended to value provisioning ES less than rural dwellers did. Differences in ES valuation could result from different experiences, uses, and needs for ES of urban and rural dwellers. We also identified two key gaps in the literature that relate to understanding how diverse ES contribute differently to the well-being of rural and urban populations (and the relevance of these differences for environmental education and policy) and the changing roles of ES in developing countries and vulnerable ecosystems, such as small islands, that face pressing environmental, social, and economic challenges.

This study analyzed the patterns and drivers of LULC dynamics in relation to the expansion of large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia from 1972 to 2016. Aerial photographs (1972), Landsat images (1980, 2000) and SPOT5 satellite images (2016) were analyzed using GIS tools to reveal LULC changes, and documentation, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to ascertain the biophysical and socioeconomic implications and drivers of these dynamics. The study revealed that cultivated and rural settlement land, and urban built-up areas had expanded at the expense of forestland, woodland, shrubland and grassland. While an increase in the production of cash crops had brought some benefits to smallholder farmers, such as access to irrigation and modern agricultural inputs and technologies, the unregulated conversion of natural vegetation to cultivated land resulted in a loss of biodiversity, deforestation, and reduction of pasture and firewood. We identified that significant LULC changes in the study area were caused by intersecting biophysical, economic, institutional, technological and demographic factors, which reinforced each other with varying magnitudes at different moments in time. These changes were underpinned by one key driver, that is, government agricultural policies that promoted investment in commercial agriculture for national and export markets. The study shows that understanding the complex interaction between the contributing factors and drivers of LULC change is crucial to inform decision-making and policies, in particular, by directing responses towards the underlying drivers of change rather than only the proximate causes.

Long-term socio-economic and spatial pattern drivers of land cover change in a Caribbean tropical moist forest, the Cockpit Country, Jamaica

Identification of driving factors of land degradation and deforestation in the Wildlife Reserve of Bontioli (Burkina Faso, West Africa)

ABSTRACTUnderstanding consumer acceptance of leafy African indigenous vegetables (AIVs) is important in enhancing their consumption levels to increase micronutrient intake. Cooked leaves from AIVs are traditionally consumed together with starchy staple food. Acceptance of leafy AIVs for consumption was evaluated using a multivariate probit model. Due to potential heterogeneity in consumer characteristics, a comparison was made between rural and urban dwellers. A stratified multistage sampling technique was used to select a sample of 168 rural and 282 urban respondents and data were collected using a pretested semistructured questionnaire. African night shade (Solanum scabrum Mill.) had the highest acceptance level, followed by Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.) and Slender leaf (Crotalaria brevidens Benth) was least accepted by rural and urban dwellers. With the exception of Jute mallow (Corchorus olitorius L.), all vegetables were better accepted by rural than urban dwellers, with differences between cowpea and Amaranth (Amaranthus cruentus L.). Age and occupation influenced acceptance of leafy AIVs by rural dwellers, but gender, household size, market information, and retail price explained their acceptance by urban dwellers. For rural and urban dwellers, income and market distance decreased and increased acceptance of leafy AIVs, respectively. Improved knowledge of AIVs among urban male and younger rural household decision makers could increase acceptance of leafy AIVs.

Introduction: Appropriate attitudes toward suicide (ATTS) is key to preventing suicide, a major mental health challenge worldwide. Hence, this study examined the differences between urban and rural dwellers on ATTS (in total and across the subscales – principal attitude (suicide as a right), representations of intentionality, tabooing, preventability of suicide, and knowledge (myths about suicide). Methods: A cross-sectional survey design was used in this study. A convenient sampling technique was used to select 400 respondents from urban (n = 200) and rural (n = 200) areas. A questionnaire packet comprising a self-designed demographic section and valid ATTS scale was used for the data collection from respondents (urban and rural dwellers). Descriptive (frequency and percentages) and inferential (independent t-test) statistics were used to analyze the data using SPSS software. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Both urban and rural dwellers were found to have negative ATTS with urban dwellers (131.40 ± 10.75) having significantly more negative ATTS (P = 0.000) than rural dwellers (118.59 ± 13.62). Furthermore, urban dwellers were found to have significantly more negative attitudes toward principal attitude (suicide as a right), representations of intentionality, tabooing, preventability of suicide, and knowledge (myths about suicide) than rural dwellers (P = 0.000). Conclusion: Settings influence ATTS such that urban dwellers have become more informed and more prepared to help prevent suicide compared with their rural counterparts.

The Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes are commonly used to determine the landscape conditions and have significant impacts on the earth's surface processes. During the last three decades, there has been an acceleration of LULC changes in Eastern DR Congo. However, there is no comprehensive overview of the drivers of these changes at the territorial level in this region, even though the knowledge of these drivers is important for land use planning and spatial modeling of environmental changes. Using the Kalehe Territory as a case study, this work sought to fill this gap by analyzing the drivers of LULC changes during the 1987-2020 period. A mixed approach combining remote sensing, Geographic Information System, and logistic regression modeling was used. The results indicated that the prominent LULC changes in the study area are deforestation, built-up area expansion, cropland expansion, and shrubland expansion. These changes are significantly influenced by biophysical factors (slope, altitude, and soil type), conservation zoning, population dynamics, and accessibility factors at different levels. The occurrence of conservation zones decreases the susceptibility to deforestation, built-up land, and cropland expansions. In contrast, the proximity factors (distance to road, artisanal mining, and locality) increase the susceptibility to LULC changes. These factors can be integrated into spatial models to forecast LULC changes susceptibility in this region. Furthermore, the establishment of future land use management policy at the territorial level in eastern DR Congo should be space-specific as the susceptibility of LULC changes shows a spatial trend.

Dynamics of land use, land cover change trend and its drivers in Jimma Geneti District, Western Ethiopia

The rapid loss of forests with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services has drawn the attention of scientists and decision makers to deforestation and land use change. Over the last two decades, a broad range of models of land use and cover change (LUCC) have been developed to assist in land management and to better understand, evaluate and project the future role of LUCC. Pattern-based LUCC models are empirical approaches based on the observation of past LUCC, including the spatial dimension of change patterns from which the underlying behavior can be inferred, through the statistical relationships of model parameters. Even though these models present a number of drawbacks such as data intensity and limited capacity to connect to other driver scales, they offer a framework to integrate data from multiple disciplines. In this chapter, we present a case study that shows land use and cover change modeling as an integrative framework for cross-referencing among different data sources. Spatial information on LUCC, econometric models and stakeholder perceptions were generated in an interdisciplinary working group in order to obtain insights into LUCC at the regional level. Land use and cover (LUC) maps were the starting point for the spatial analyses of historic changes, which together with ancillary data were used to establish change probabilities for the main change processes. Econometric models showed historic tendencies of agricultural production and a panel analysis clarified the relation between variables. Local stakeholder perception gave the historic background and participatory fuzzy cognitive maps shed light on the underlying drivers of change. By cross-referencing the different data sources, we show that for this particular region the official LUC maps do capture the main change processes. Both local stakeholder perceptions and econometric models confirm deforestation and agricultural expansion, especially livestock farming, as the main processes. The econometric models confirm the difference in magnitude between the large growth in areas for livestock farming and much more restricted growth of agricultural areas and show that beef production and pasture for cattle ranching is displacing the production of maize and beans. As regards the drivers of change, the different data sources complement each other quite well as they cover different scales: the stakeholder elicitations revealed a set of indirect drivers related to the direct drivers identified in the spatial analysis of historic change. The indirect drivers included the political, social, cultural and economic forces behind agricultural expansion, especially cattle ranching. The analysis of the spatial factors related to change showed that a large array of variables play a role in LUCC. The mixed method approach is helpful in unravelling the different levels of connection between drivers.

Despite the rapid economic and population growth, the risks related to the current dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) have attracted a lot of attention in Ethiopia. Therefore, a complete investigation of past and future LULC changes is essential for sustainable water resources and land-use planning and management. Since the 1980s, LULC change has been detected in the upper stream of the Awash River basin. The main purpose of this research was to investigate the current dynamics of LULC and use the combined application of the cellular automata and the Markov chain (CA–Markov) model to simulate the year 2038 LULC in the future; key informant interviews, household surveys, focus group discussions, and field observations were used to assess the consequences and drivers of LULC changes in the upstream Awash basin (USAB). This research highlighted the importance of remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques for analyzing the LULC changes in the USAB. Multi-temporal cloud-free Landsat images of three sequential data sets for the periods (1984, 2000, and 2019) were employed to classify based on supervised classification and map LULC changes. Satellite imagery enhancement techniques were performed to improve and visualize the image for interpretation. ArcGIS10.4 and IDRISI software was used for LULC classification, data processing, and analyses. Based on Landsat 5 TM-GLS 1984, Landsat 7 ETM-GLS 2000, and Landsat 8 2019 OLI-TIRS, the supervised maximum likelihood image classification method was used to map the LULC dynamics. Landsat images from 1984, 2000, and 2019 were classified to simulate possible LULC in 2019 and 2038. The result reveals that the maximum area is covered by agricultural land and shrubland. It showed, to the areal extent, a substantial increase in agricultural land and urbanization and a decrease in shrubland, forest, grassland, and water. The LULC dynamics showed that those larger change rates were observed from forest and shrubland to agricultural areas. The results of the study show the radical changes in LULC during 1984–2019; the main reasons for this were agricultural expansion and urbanization. From 1984 to 2019, agriculture increased by 62%, urban area increased by 570.5%, and forest decreased by 88.7%. In the same year, the area of shrubland decreased by 68.6%, the area of water decreased by 65.5%, and the area of grassland decreased by 57.7%. In view of the greater increase in agricultural land and urbanization, as well as the decrease in shrubland, it means that the LULC of the region has changed. This research provides valuable information for water resources managers and land-use planners to make changes in the improvement of future LULC policies and development of sub-basin management strategies in the context of sustainable water resources and land-use planning and management.

Urbanization alters ecosystem service preferences in a Small Island Developing State

Understanding the patterns and drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) changes is fundamental for rational and specific planning for sustainable land management. Using remote sensing techniques, geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical modeling via multinomial logistic regression, we sought to identify spatial variables that determine LULC change and their extent over time in the protected and communal areas of the Zambezi Region, Namibia. Multi-temporal satellite imagery of the Landsat series was used to map changes over a period of twenty-six years, divided into three stages (1984–1991, 1991–2000 and 2000–2010). Post classification change detection methodologies were used to determine conversions between LULC classes. Additionally, socio-economic characteristics of the area were used to identify drivers of changes. Four spatial drivers of LULC change that we identified included the distance to the nearest road, distance to settlements, population density and fire return periods. Population density, distance to settlements and fire return period were significantly associated with conversion from crop/grass land to crop/grass land and forest land to crop/grass, forest land to bare land and forest land to forest land in the protected area. In communal areas, distance to the road was found to significantly influence conversion from crop/grass land to crop/grass land. The study concluded that the influence of these drivers is attributable to distinct political and agro-demographical differences during the study period. Policy makers and planners need to take these drivers into consideration together with their subsidiaries to respond and make sound decisions regarding undesirable changes in LULC.

Land use land cover (LULC) dynamics are a widespread, accelerating, and significant process driven by human actions. LULC changes analysis is one of the most precise techniques to understand how land was used in the past, what types of changes are to be expected in the future, as well as the forces and processes behind the changes. This study was carried out to evaluate the historical and future trends as well as driving forces of LULC changes in Somodo watershed South Western, Ethiopia. It was accompanied using satellite image of Landsat5 TM 1985 and 1995, Landsat7 ETM+ 1999, 2005 and Landsat8 OLI/TIROS 2017. In addition, field observations, Key informant interview (KII) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) were also conducted. ERDAS Imagine 9.1, QGIS 2.18 and IDRSI Selva 17.00, software were used for satellite image processing, map preparation, and LULC change prediction respectively. During the 32 year period between 1985 and 2017, the proportion of area covered by forest and agriculture was decreased by 60.57 ha (12.7%) and 5.22 ha (1.1%) respectively. In contrast, home garden Agroforestry/settlement and grassland were increased by 49.77 ha (7.5%) and 16.02 ha (6.7%) respectively. If the existing rate of LULC change lasts, in 2029 agriculture and forestland are predicted to increase by 91.24 ha and 20.52 ha respectively, while grassland and home garden Agroforestry/settlement are predicted to decrease by 99.97 ha and 11.79 ha respectively. LULC change in the study area is an outcome of several proximate and underlying drivers. The major proximate driving forces of LULC change in the watershed are illegal logging and fuel wood extraction, Expansion of plantation, expansion of settlement, agricultural expansion, and construction of infrastructures. Demographic, Economic, Technological, Institution and policy, and Biophysical factors constitute the major underlying drivers of LULC change in the study area. Population growth is the major underlying cause for LULC change in the study area. Then, Participatory Forest Management through plantation and community nursery expansion is required for forest cover improvement in the watershed. This study also suggests further study on the impact of LULC change in the area. Key words: Drivers, geographic information system (GIS), Land use/Land cover Change prediction, Somodo Watershed.