Assessment of several flood estimation methodologies in Makkah metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Estimation of floods in a hydrological basin is essential for efficient flood management and development planning. Several approaches have been proposed to estimate flood peak discharge based on topographic and morphometric characteristics of ungauged hydrological basins. Two global approaches, namely the rational and the curve number methods, along with four national regression models have been compared over Makkah metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia. The curve number methodology has been taken as the basis of comparison due to its precision and wide utilization. Results show that the rational method produces differences equal to 44% in terms of peak discharges. Moreover, the best national regression model gives difference in the order of 18% with respect to the curve number results. Other national models give results very far away from those of the curve number (up to 95%), which can be considered as measures for their awful accuracy. Hence, the curve number is recommended as an optimum methodology for flood estimation, in Makkah city, in case of availability of geological, metrological, land use, and topographic datasets. Otherwise, a specific national regression model (Al-Subai) may be utilized in a simple way.