Assessment of Rice Yield and Irrigation Water Demand Change in the Korean Peninsula based on RCP Climate Change Scenario

Abstract

<p>In 2019, The Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO) announced that North Korea was a food shortage country and which is closely related to the agricultural drought frequency. These agricultural drought frequencies derived from global climate change are increasing and in terms of climate change, agricultural drought is not just a national problem, but a global scale issue. To respond to agricultural drought-related with food shortage, various studies and projects are conducted based on the remote sensing data and modeling such as hydrological model, crop model, but access to public data in North Korea is limited, and also objectivity is difficult to be guaranteed. In this study, the estimation of rice yield and irrigation water demand based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate change scenario was conducted using Environmental Policy Integrated Climate(EPIC) model which calculates various variables related to agriculture by using climatic data, Soil data and topographic data. For validating the parameter of the model, the study area was set to the Korean Peninsula and the parameter was set stepwise compared results of the model with South Korea national statistics. The results of rice yield and irrigation water demand in the Korean Peninsula was validated by using statistics of international organizations. The assessment of Rice Yield and Irrigation Water Demand Change based on the EPIC model is considered a method for complementing the field test and statistical limitations in North Korea. This study can be used as basic data for agricultural drought in North Korea and Based on the model results, it is necessary to concern food security.</p>