Abstract
Abstract. An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain has been developed to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system to Europe, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and future health-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe (including both natural and anthropogenic sources), represented by the years 2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to the health-related external costs from international ship traffic with special attention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North seas, since special regulatory actions on sulfur emissions, called SECA (sulfur emission control area), have been introduced in these areas. We conclude that, despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, air pollution still constitutes a serious problem for human health. Hence the related external costs are considerable. The total health-related external costs for the whole of Europe are estimated at 803 bn euros yr−1 for the year 2000, decreasing to 537 bn euros yr−1 in the year 2020. We estimate the total number of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollution to be around 680 000 yr−1, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year 2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costs in Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. In contrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducing sulfur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatory instrument for all international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere, or at least in areas close to Europe, would have a significant positive impact on human health in Europe.
Highlights
(sulfur emission control area), have been introduced in these areas
We examined the impacts of introducing the socalled sulfur emission control areas (SECAs) in the North Sea and Baltic Sea
The scenarios Baltic Sea together with the North Sea (BaS-NoS)/15 are defined to answer question 2: what are the past, present and future impacts on human health and related external costs in Europe from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea? The scenarios are similar to the scenarios defined above, except in this case we examine only emissions from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea
Summary
The concept of the EVA system (Frohn et al, 2006, 2007; Andersen et al, 2006, 2007, 2008; Brandt et al, 2010, 2013) is based on the impact-pathway chain (e.g. Friedrich and Bickel, 2001) and used in the EcoSense model (ExternE, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2005). To calculate the δ-concentrations (i.e. the marginal difference in regional ambient concentration levels due to a specific emission source), we have implemented a “tagging” method (Brandt et al, 2012, 2013) to examine how specific emission sources influence air pollution levels, without assuming linear behaviour of atmospheric chemistry, and at the same time reducing the influence from the numerical noise. This method is more precise than taking the difference between two concentration fields. External costs for the entire population are estimated using cost functions customized for European conditions in the EVA model system (Brandt et al, 2013)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
