Assessment of changes in methane emissions from marsh ecosystems of northern Eurasia in the 21st century using regional climate model results

Abstract

Changes in methane emissions into the atmosphere from terrestrial ecosystems are assessed with models for the European and Asian parts of Russia using the model unit of a methane cycle and calculations with a regional climate model. The calculations were performed for the present-day base period (1991–2000), for the middle (2041–2050), and late (2091–2100) 21st century using the SRES A2 anthropogenic emission scenario. The average emissions for the base period were equal to 8 Mt CH4/year for the European part of Russia and 10 Mt CH4/year for the Asian part. By the middle of the 21st century, they increased up to 11 and 13 Mt CH4/year, and by the late 21st century, up to 14 and 17 Mt CH4/year. These tendencies are associated with the increased warm period of the soil and dependence of the integral methane production on temperature. It is predicted that the maximum depth of freezing will lessen in the southern regions of the European and Asian parts of Russia by the late 21st century.