Abstract
The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between weather variables and buildings damaged in natural disasters. We used four datasets on building damage history and 33 weather datasets from 230 regions in South Korea in a decision tree analysis to evaluate the risk of building damage. We generated the decision tree model to determine the risk of rain, gale, and typhoon (excluding gale with less damage). Using the weight and limit values of the weather variables derived using the decision tree model, the risk of building damage was assessed for 230 regions in South Korea until 2100. The number of regions at risk of rain damage increased by more than 30% on average. Conversely, regions at risk of damage from snowfall decreased by more than 90%. The regions at risk of typhoons decreased by 57.5% on average, while those at high risk of the same increased by up to 62.5% under RCP 8.5. The results of this study are highly fluid since they are based on the uncertainty of future climate change. However, the study is meaningful because it suggests a new method for assessing disaster risk using weather indices.
Highlights
Since the 1950s, extreme weather changes, such as decreases in cold temperature extremes, increases in warm temperature extremes, increases in high sea levels, and increases in the number of heavy precipitation events [1], have been observed
According to the annual statistical review of disasters issued by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) [6], 342 natural disasters occurred in 2016, which is less than the average from 2006 to 2015 (376.4)
A correlation analysis was performed before the decision tree model was constructed, to ensure that weather indices with a high impact was applied to the input variables in the model
Summary
Since the 1950s, extreme weather changes, such as decreases in cold temperature extremes, increases in warm temperature extremes, increases in high sea levels, and increases in the number of heavy precipitation events [1], have been observed. The number of people reported to have been affected by natural disasters (564.4 million) during the former period was the highest since 2006, amounting to 1.5 times its annual average (224 million). The number of deaths in South Asia has accounted for 64% of all deaths in natural disasters. This was caused in part by the fact that developing countries in Asia are vulnerable to extreme weather events due to climate change. Precautions and countermeasures should be implemented to reduce the magnitude of damage and to prevent unpredictable disasters
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