Assessment of Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change in Indonesia to Maintain Food Security

Indonesia was known as an agrarian and maritime country, should not experience difficulties in fulfill food needs or having high food security. However, it is a formidable challenge for the Indonesia to meeting food needs. The low level of food security was caused more by Indonesia's geographical conditions in the form of islands that cause inequality of food production, distribution and absorption among provinces in Indonesia. To reduce the occurrence of food security inequality between provinces in Indonesia, clusters was formed based on food security indicators. Based clustering technique is chosen to overcome the problem of overlapping and the limited availability problem in food security data. The results of research produce 3 clusters based on the classification of food security levels. Based on Bayesian Information Criterion, the most fitted cluster model is a three-cluster model with diagonal distributions. The first cluster consisted of 19 provinces with a classification of middle food security levels, the second cluster consisted of 10 provinces with the classification of the level of high food security, and the third cluster consisted of 5 provinces with a classification of low food security levels. It is expected that the results of this clustering can provide input to the Indonesian government to focus more on 5 Provinces with low food security classification, which focuses on access to food.

Food security is one of the main goals in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal’s (SDG’s). Food security, natural disasters, and climate change are thought to be interrelated. Climate change contributes to natural disasters such as floods, landslides, drought, land and forest fires, resulting in reduced food production, increased food prices, and disrupted access to food distribution. Ultimately, the impacts of climate change and natural disasters are one of the main causes of hunger and affect all dimensions of food security. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change, natural disasters, and other determinants on food security in Indonesia using the Tobit regression. The data used was from 33 provinces in 2010-2018. Climate change was proxied by rainfall, while natural disasters were proxied by the frequency of natural disasters and facility damage due to disasters. The results showed that food crop production, GRDP per capita, and the average years of schooling had a significant effect on increasing food security. Meanwhile, rainfall and deforestation had a significant effect on reducing food security. On the other hand, although not significant, the frequency and damage to facilities due to natural disasters harms food security. The results of this study confirmed the importance of preserving forest biodiversity as an effort to achieve food security as seen from the negative effects of rainfall and deforestation on food security. In this case, deforestation was one of the contributors to climate change which in turn had an impact on the intensity of natural disasters. To achieve food security for the achievement of the SDGs, policies to reduce deforestation or forest conversion need attention as one of the efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.

Smallholder farming households represent one of groups most exposed to the vagaries of climate change because their production and livelihood depend on climatic elements. This study assessed the effect of climate change adaptive capacity on smallholder farming households' food security in Oyo State, Nigeria. Data from 246 farming households were analysed using factor analysis to generate the Climate Change Adaptive Capacity Index (CCACI), Foster-Greer-Thorbecke Indices and Logit Regression. The most adopted adaptation strategies were intercropping, fallowing, fertilizer application, and crop rotation. Most of the households had moderate or high adaptive capacity to climate change. Econometric results show that farm households with low climate change adaptive capacity have a greater likelihood of being food insecure relative to farm households with moderate and high climate change adaptive capacity. These findings emphasize the need to enhance smallholder farmers' capacity to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change on national food security.

Climate change affects food security because it causes a shift in the rainy or dry season, which greatly affects the pattern and timing of planting food crops. A decrease in agricultural production will trigger an increase in food prices, which in turn will lead to a decrease in household food purchasing power. Bulog, in this case as the party appointed by the government to carry out activities to maintain the Basic Purchase Price for grain, stabilize prices, especially basic prices, distribute rice for social assistance (Bansos) and manage food stocks, has several strategies to overcome this problem. This study aims to identify the impact of climate change on Indonesia's food security strategy undertaken by Bulog in 2023. The research methodology is based on secondary data that includes a literature review of, articles, e-books, open access e-journals, and previous research. The results showed the influence of climate change on the strategy of Bulog in maintaining food security despite declining production by 1) encouraging subsidiaries by Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) to increase domestic rice production, 2) building 10 rice milling centers, 7 rice processing centers to its logistics, 3) Distribution of rice assistance of 10 kg per month for low-income groups Program, 4) Stabilization of Food Price Supply (Stabilisasi Pasokan Harga Pangan), which supplies more than 1 million tons of rice at a lower price than the market price. The implication of this research is the importance of strategies to increase domestic food production, strengthen food distribution infrastructure, and pay attention to low-income groups in food assistance programs to overcome the impact of climate change on Indonesia's future food security.

Background: Indonesia is experiencing a significant conversion of agricultural land. Along with increasing development activities, economic growth, and population expansion, the demand for land has risen sharply. Meanwhile, land availability remains essentially unchanged. This discrepancy has led to various conflicts of interest, ultimately resulting in the widespread conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural uses. Climate change and the demographic transition within the agricultural sector also pose new challenges to achieving food security. This policy paper examines Indonesia’s food security policy strategies, with a particular focus on the sustainability of the national food system. Methods: The approach used in the preparation of this policy paper is qualitative with a literature review as its primary method. Findings: The findings includes an analysis of the existing conditions, the challenges faced, and strategic policy recommendations to achieve sustainable food security. Conclusion: Indonesia has made progress in food and nutrition security, yet it continues to face challenges such as climate change, demographic transitions, and urbanization. To address these issues, transformative strategies are needed, including sustainable agriculture, youth empowerment, and the development of technology-based urban farming systems. Novelty/Originality of this article: This policy paper presents a novel integrative approach by combining climate adaptation, youth empowerment, and urban agriculture as a unified strategy to achieve sustainable food security in Indonesia. It distinguishes itself by using a system thinking framework to analyze food security challenges and formulate cross-sectoral policy recommendations that address environmental, demographic, and urbanization pressures simultaneously.

<p>This research is motivated by the mismatch between potential and real conditions in Indonesia, resulting in food security problems. As an archipelagic, maritime, tropical, and agricultural country, Indonesia has abundant natural resource potential. Indonesia is one of the largest rice-producing countries in the world. However, Indonesia's food security condition is still low. It is proven by Indonesia's food security index, which is still below the global and Asia-Pacific averages. This research aims to analyze the influence of Rice Production, Poverty, and Prevalence of undernourishment variables on food security in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive quantitative, using secondary data in the form of panel data for 2018-2022. The analytical method used in this research is panel data regression analysis. The results of this research show that the variables of rice production, poverty, and prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) together significantly affect food security in Indonesia. Partially, the rice production variable has a positive and insignificant effect on food security in Indonesia. The poverty variable negatively and significantly affects food security in Indonesia. The prevalence of the undernourishment variable has a positive and significant effect on food security in Indonesia.</p>

This study was conducted with the aim of analysing the mapping of food security between provinces in Indonesia using the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) approach where the aspects or dimensions used include availability, affordability and utilization. The research method is carried out with a quantitative approach through indexing calculations by means of distance to scale, namely for each measurement indicator an index calculation will be carried out by comparing one province with another province as a benchmarking (reference). The results of the study show that during the 2020-2023 period, the food security index for all provinces is at a fairly good level, which has an average score of 70%. Bali Province consistently ranks first for Indonesia's food security index by province. West Papua and Papua provinces consistently ranked the lowest for Indonesia's provincial food security index. The source of the low level of food security in West Papua and Papua is the low achievement of the pillars of affordability and utilisation. Keywords : food security, availability, affordability, utilization, distance to scale.

Agriculture production is directly dependent on climate change and weather. Possible changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration are expected to significantly impact crop growth and ultimately we lose our crop productivity and indirectly affect the sustainable food availability issue. The overall impact of climate change on worldwide food production is considered to be low to moderate with successful adaptation and adequate irrigation. Climate change has a serious impact on the availability of various resources on the earth especially water, which sustains life on this planet. The global food security situation and outlook remains delicately imbalanced amid surplus food production and the prevalence of hunger, due to the complex interplay of social, economic, and ecological factors that mediate food security outcomes at various human and institutional scales. Weather aberration poses complex challenges in terms of increased variability and risk for food producers and the energy and water sectors. Changes in the biosphere, biodiversity and natural resources are adversely affecting human health and quality of life. Throughout the 21st century, India is projected to experience warming above global level. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers. Longevity of heat waves across India has extended in recent years with warmer night temperatures and hotter days, and this trend is expected to continue. Strategic research priorities are outlined for a range of sectors that underpin global food security, including: agriculture, ecosystem services from agriculture, climate change, international trade, water management solutions, the water-energy-food security nexus, service delivery to smallholders and women farmers, and better governance models and regional priority setting. There is a need to look beyond agriculture and invest in affordable and suitable farm technologies if the problem of food insecurity is to be addressed in a sustainable manner. Introduction Globally, agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. This vulnerability is relatively higher in India in view of the large population depending on agriculture and poor coping capabilities of small and marginal farmers. Impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to food security. “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit, 1996). This definition gives rise to four dimensions of food security: availability of food, accessibility (economically and physically), utilization (the way it is used and assimilated by the human body) and stability of these three dimensions. According to the United Nations, in 2015, there are still 836 million people in the world living in extreme poverty (less than USD1.25/day) (UN, 2015). And according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), at least 70 percent of the very poor live in rural areas, most of them depending partly (or completely) on agriculture for their livelihoods. It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people, and in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa these small farms produce about 80 percent of the food consumed. Climate change threatens to reverse the progress made so far in the fight against hunger and malnutrition. As highlighted by the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC), climate change augments and intensifies risks to food security for the most vulnerable countries and populations. Few of the major risks induced by climate change, as identified by IPCC have direct consequences for food security (IPCC, 2007). These are mainly to loss of rural livelihoods and income, loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, livelihoods loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems and food insecurity (breakdown of food systems). Rural farmers, whose livelihood depends on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. Most of the crop simulation model runs and experiments under elevated temperature and carbon dioxide indicate that by 2030, a 3-7% decline in the yield of principal cereal crops like rice and wheat is likely in India by adoption of current production technologies. Global warming impacts growth, reproduction and yields of food and horticulture crops, increases crop water requirement, causes more soil erosion, increases thermal stress on animals leading to decreased milk yields and change the distribution and breeding season of fisheries. Fast changing climatic conditions, shrinking land, water and other natural resources with rapid growing population around the globe has put many challenges before us (Mukherjee, 2014). Food is going to be second most challenging issue for mankind in time to come. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers (Christensen et al., 2007). Climate change is posing a great threat to agriculture and food security in India and it's subcontinent. Water is the most critical agricultural input in India, as 55% of the total cultivated areas do not have irrigation facilities. Currently we are able to secure food supplies under these varying conditions. Under the threat of climate variability, our food grain production system becomes quite comfortable and easily accessible for local people. India's food grain production is estimated to rise 2 per cent in 2020-21 crop years to an all-time high of 303.34 million tonnes on better output of rice, wheat, pulse and coarse cereals amid good monsoon rains last year. In the 2019-20 crop year, the country's food grain output (comprising wheat, rice, pulses and coarse cereals) stood at a record 297.5 million tonnes (MT). Releasing the second advance estimates for 2020-21 crop year, the agriculture ministry said foodgrain production is projected at a record 303.34 MT. As per the data, rice production is pegged at record 120.32 MT as against 118.87 MT in the previous year. Wheat production is estimated to rise to a record 109.24 MT in 2020-21 from 107.86 MT in the previous year, while output of coarse cereals is likely to increase to 49.36 MT from 47.75 MT. Pulses output is seen at 24.42 MT, up from 23.03 MT in 2019-20 crop year. In the non-foodgrain category, the production of oilseeds is estimated at 37.31 MT in 2020-21 as against 33.22 MT in the previous year. Sugarcane production is pegged at 397.66 MT from 370.50 MT in the previous year, while cotton output is expected to be higher at 36.54 million bales (170 kg each) from 36.07. This production figure seem to be sufficient for current population, but we need to improve more and more with vertical farming and advance agronomic and crop improvement tools for future burgeoning population figure under the milieu of climate change issue. Our rural mass and tribal people have very limited resources and they sometime complete depend on forest microhabitat. To order to ensure food and nutritional security for growing population, a new strategy needs to be initiated for growing of crops in changing climatic condition. The country has a large pool of underutilized or underexploited fruit or cereals crops which have enormous potential for contributing to food security, nutrition, health, ecosystem sustainability under the changing climatic conditions, since they require little input, as they have inherent capabilities to withstand biotic and abiotic stress. Apart from the impacts on agronomic conditions of crop productions, climate change also affects the economy, food systems and wellbeing of the consumers (Abbade, 2017). Crop nutritional quality become very challenging, as we noticed that, zinc and iron deficiency is a serious global health problem in humans depending on cereal-diet and is largely prevalent in low-income countries like Sub-Saharan Africa, and South and South-east Asia. We report inefficiency of modern-bred cultivars of rice and wheat to sequester those essential nutrients in grains as the reason for such deficiency and prevalence (Debnath et al., 2021). Keeping in mind the crop yield and nutritional quality become very daunting task to our food security issue and this can overcome with the proper and time bound research in cognizance with the environment. Threat and challenges In recent years, climate change has become a debatable issue worldwide. South Asia will be one of the most adversely affected regions in terms of impacts of climate change on agricultural yield, economic activity and trading policies. Addressing climate change is central for global future food security and poverty alleviation. The approach would need to implement strategies linked with developmental plans to enhance its adaptive capacity in terms of climate resilience and mitigation. Over time, there has been a visible shift in the global climate change initiative towards adaptation. Adaptation can complement mitigation as a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks. The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects across societies and countries. Mitigation and adaptation actions can, if appropriately designed, advance sustainable development and equity both within and across countries and between generations. One approach to balancing the attention on adaptation and mitigation strategies is to compare the costs and benefits of both the strategies. The most imminent change is the increase in the atmospheric temperatures due to increase levels of GHGs (Green House Gases) i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) etc into the atmosphere. The global mean annual temperatures at the end of the 20th

Fulfilling food and nutrition for all is a priority policy for national development. This policy aligns with Sustainable Development Goal 2, No Hunger. Achieving this target is not easy because Indonesia has a large population with positive growth. On the other hand, climate change and the degradation of land and water resources are continuing. The Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions currently exacerbate these challenges. This study aims to analyze the performance of Indonesia's food security and formulate policy recommendations. The primary sources of data and information come from the publication of the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) 2021 and the Food Security Vulnerability Atlas (FSVA) 2021. The data are analyzed descriptively and qualitatively. Based on GFSI, in 2021, from 113 countries studied, Indonesia's food security was ranked 69th. At the national level, based on the FSVA, Indonesia has achieved food security nationally. However, 74 out of 514 districts/cities were still vulnerable to food insecurity. Efforts to accelerate the achievement of food and nutrition security need to be focused on dimensions that are considered to have weak performance and in areas that are vulnerable to food insecurity, namely food 1) consumption and safety and 2) natural resources and resilience. In line with that, it is necessary to accelerate the development of basic service infrastructure (health, education, and roads), especially in Eastern Indonesia, and empower the community to increase their income. Food policies must be integrated and synergized with national economic and health policies.

Indonesia is the largest archipelago in the world with total land area is around 190 million hectares (ha), of which about 28.94 percent or some 55 million ha are agricultural land. As the world’s fourth most populous country, Indonesia’s total population is estimated to increase from about 245 million in 2013 to 288 million in 2050. This study aims to analyze the leading sectors of each province in Indonesia by Location Quotient (LQ) method and distribution of food security level in every province in Indonesia based on rice production balance. This research uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Indonesia and Gross Domestic Regional Product of each of the provinces in all sectors during 2010-2014 obtained through the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. The determination of the leading sectors of each province is based on the Location Quotient (LQ) which is the comparative method of the role of an economic sector in a province to the magnitude of the economic sector's role nationally. The food security index determined by the food security calculation that done by the ministry of Agriculture Indonesia especially the Food Security Agency of Indonesia based on the assumption of the resident who can fulfill more than 90 percent of Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA) is food secure category. Leading sectors in Indonesia is varies between one province to other province. Leading sectors obtained from Location Quotient (LQ) formula shows that although it is said to be an agrarian country, the LQ results indicate that not all provinces in Indonesia have the leading sector in agriculture. Leading sector in agricultural is only found in 20 provinces out of 33 provinces in Indonesia (exclude North Kalimantan). Most provinces with agricultural based have experienced economic structuring towards secondary and tertiary sectors. Provinces with the highest LQ scores in agriculture, forestry and fisheries are found only in North Sumatra, Lampung, West Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi and West Sulawesi. Provinces with LQ> 1 score for the agricultural sector indicate that the province has a high level of agricultural production so that it becomes a comparative advantage for regional development. Agriculture, forestry and fishery sector still dominates in some parts of Indonesia, especially Sumatra, Sulawesi, Maluku, Nusa Tenggara and part of Kalimantan Island but not as major economic contributor. While most provinces in Java, Bali and Papua do not have an economic advantage in the agricultural sector. Food Security Index of Indonesia mainly classified as the moderate level except for North Maluku, Papua, and West Papua in low level and Bali and West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) in high level. Factors influencing differences in food security are based on availibility and affordability factors. Availibilty factor reflects the resilience of an area in terms of food availability, while affordability factor reflects the ease of obtaining food.

Multiple disruptions in health sectors and geopolitics has been alarming food security worldwide. This study provides insights by assessing the determinants of food security in Indonesia and creating a map of the country's most food insecure areas as a basis of developing anticipating strategies. This study is quantitative in nature using secondary data from the Statistics Indonesia. To estimate the model, we used Non-Parametric Splines Regression and Clustering Analysis. The results show that food security in Indonesia is greatly impacted by rice production, population density, purchasing power index, food expenditures, and harvested area. Additionally, most of the provinces in Indonesia has a medium to high food security level. The results showed the need for integrating Indonesian food chain policies such as land, water, and fertilizer availability. In addition, the Indonesian Bureau of Logistics must take measures to preserve the availability and distribution of staple foods.

Food security is a global issue that is increasingly urgent to be resolved along with world population growth, urbanization, and climate change. Norway, as a developed country with an efficient and innovative agricultural system, has become an exemplary example of achieving food security. On the other hand, Indonesia still faces many challenges in achieving optimal food security. In this context, this research reviews strategies for achieving food security in Indonesia and the implementation of Norway's food security policy. The literature study method was used to collect relevant information, and the results showed that the third strategy, which focuses on "ends," is the key to increasing food security. This strategy includes increasing national food independence, developing inclusive food supply chains, and increasing resilience to climate change and natural disasters. By considering strategies that have proven effective in Norway, Indonesia can identify concrete steps to increase food security in a sustainable manner.

Aquaculture has developed into one of the key sectors in global fisheries, contributing greatly to food security around the world. Amidst a growing population and an increasing need for protein sources, aquaculture offers a real and sustainable solution. This study aims to analyze the contribution of aquaculture to food security in Indonesia, especially in the face of future challenges such as population growth, climate change, and limited natural resources. This research used a qualitative approach to explore and understand the contribution of aquaculture to food security in Indonesia, with a focus on economic analysis and development. A qualitative approach was chosen as it can provide deep insights into the experiences, views, and practices associated with aquaculture, as well as its impact on food security. In this complex context, a qualitative approach allows researchers to explore the meaning behind the data obtained, explain the relationships between variables, and understand the social, economic, and environmental factors that influence aquaculture development. The results show that aquaculture has significant potential in increasing the sustainable supply of animal protein and supporting food security, particularly through increased productivity, species diversification, and technology integration. However, challenges such as access to technology, capital, and environmental sustainability still need to be addressed. The managerial implications of these findings call for stronger policy support in terms of technology investment and training for aquaculture farmers, as well as the integration of sustainable aquaculture practices in national development plans to optimize the sector's role in supporting food security in the long term. In terms of managerial implications, these results indicate the importance of policy interventions that support investment in environmentally friendly technologies, human resource capacity building, and strengthening more efficient distribution networks. This research suggests that the government and private sector collaborate in creating an appropriate regulatory framework to support the development of sustainable aquaculture to meet future food security challenges.

Agroforestry has potential for strengthening the climate change resilience of smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia. In Indonesia, the food security challenges faced by smallholders will likely worsen due to climate change impacts. Agroforestry provides and option for strengthening climate change resilience, while contributing to food access, income, health, and environmental stability. To evaluate the evidence for such benefits, this systematic review identifies 22 peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2019 which assess agroforestry’s contributions to food security in Indonesia, mostly in Java or Sumatra. Analysis of the studies indicate that traditional and commercial agroforestry contribute to food security in diverse ways: for example, traditional homegardens offer 20% more dietary diversity than commercial counterparts, while commercial homegardens may contribute up to five times more income. Agri-silviculture contributions fall along a timber versus non-timber forest product continuum that displays a similar tradeoff between diversity and income. Those systems with a commercial focus may receive 54% of their income from a single commodity crop such as coffee, while traditional systems allow greater access to plants with medicinal benefits. Nearly all agroforestry systems offered indirect benefits for food security, such as allowing more off-farm work than traditional agriculture and contributing to environmental stability: users of agroforestry were found by one study to collect 83% less fuelwood from natural forests. One study highlighted that agroforestry options have up to 98% greater net present value (for periods over 30 years) compared to slash and burn style agriculture. However, very few studies of Indonesian agroforestry focused explicitly on financial analysis and food security, indicating the need for further research. Given the similar situations faced by many Southeast Asia countries, our findings contribute to emerging trends throughout the region regarding the relationship between agroforestry and food security.

Background: Food security is a major concern in Indonesia’s economy, influenced by agricultural productivity, food prices, and population growth. Instability in food supply and price fluctuations threaten national food security. An Islamic economic perspective offers additional insights, emphasizing justice and equitable food distribution.Aims: This study aims to analyze the impact of agricultural productivity, food prices (especially rice), and population size on Indonesia’s food security from 2013 to 2022, using an Islamic economic framework to generate policy recommendations for sustainable food security.Methods: A quantitative approach is used with time-series data from BPS and related sources. The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine both short- and long-term dynamics among the variables: agricultural productivity, rice prices, population size, and the food security index.Results: In the short term, agricultural productivity negatively affects food security due to yield instability. Higher rice prices positively impact food security by encouraging local production and competitiveness. Population growth, however, reduces food security by increasing demand. In the long term, both agricultural productivity and rice prices negatively affect food security, while population size shows a positive impact, possibly due to labor supply and market expansion. Conclusion: The study concludes that agricultural productivity, food prices, and population size influence food security in Indonesia differently in the short and long term. From an Islamic economic perspective, sustainable food security can be achieved through equitable welfare and fair distribution of food. Policies that promote increased agricultural productivity, food price stabilization, and sustainable population management are essential to ensuring sufficient food availability for all sectors of society. Therefore, the government must formulate policies that are more adaptive to demographic and economic changes to maintain Indonesia's food security.