Assessing the vulnerability of Thailand's forest birds to global change

Climate and land cover change are critical drivers of avian species range shift. Thus, predicting avian species' response to the land and climate changes and identifying their future suitable habitats can help their conservation planning. The common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) is a species of conservation concern in Iran and is included in the list of Iran's protected avian species. The species faces multiple threats such as habitat destruction, land cover change, and overhunting in the country. In this study, we model the potential impacts of future climate and land coverchange on the habitat suitabilityof common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) along elevational gradients in Mazandaran province in Iran. We used shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios and the 2015-2020 trend to generate possible future land cover projections for 2050. As for climate change projections, we used representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Next, we applied current and future climate and land cover projections to investigate how habitatsuitabilityofcommon pheasant willchange between 2020 and 2050 using species distribution modeling (SDM). Our results show that the species has 6000 km2 suitable habitat; however, between 900 and 1965 km2 of its habitat may be reduced by 2050. Furthermore, we found that the severity of the effects of climate and land cover change varies at different altitudes. At low altitudes, the impact of changing land structure is superior. Instead, climate change has a critical role in habitat loss at higher altitudes and imposes a limiting role on the potential range shifts. Overall, thisstudy demonstrates the vital role of land cover and climate change in better understanding the potential alterations in avian distribution.

Southeast Asian forests are dominated by the tree family Dipterocarpaceae, whose abundance and diversity are key to maintaining the structure and function of tropical forests. Like most biodiversity, dipterocarps are threatened by deforestation and climate change, so it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of these threats on current and future dipterocarp distributions. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for 19 species of dipterocarps in the Philippines, which were projected onto current and two 2070 representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Current land cover was incorporated as a post-hoc correction to restrict projections onto intact habitats. Land cover correction alone reduced current species distributions by a median 67%, and within protected areas by 37%. After land cover correction, climate change reduced distributions by a median 16% (RCP 4.5) and 27% (RCP 8.5) at the national level, with similar losses in protected areas. There was a detectable upward elevation shift of species distributions, consisting of suitable habitat losses below 300 m and gains above 600 m. Species-rich stable areas of continued habitat suitability (i.e., climate macrorefugia) fell largely outside current delineations of protected areas, indicating a need to improve protected area planning. This study highlights how SDMs can provide projections that can inform protected area planning in the tropics.

Anthropogenic climate change affects biological diversity by altering their suitable habitat ranges. The Himalayan region is one of the world's most sensitive biodiversity hotspots to global climate change. The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) in the central Himalayas serves as a vital north–south linkage among the protected areas in central Nepal and provides suitable habitats for threatened mammals in different ecological zones, such as snow leopards (in the alpine zone), Himalayan red panda (in the temperate zone), and one‐horned rhinoceros (in the lowland tropical zone). The biodiversity of CHAL is threatened by climate change and land use alterations. This study assessed the potential impacts of climate and land cover changes on the above three key threatened mammals in CHAL by employing maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the current potential habitat and project it for future climate change scenarios under different greenhouse gas concentrations. Further, we used the cellular automata and Markov Chain models to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial changes in land cover of CHAL. Our results indicate that the snow leopard and Himalayan red panda will experience more significant vulnerability than the one‐horned rhinoceros in all future climate scenarios. Approximately 36.3% and 41.8% of the suitable habitat of the snow leopard and 32.5% and 56% of the Himalayan red panda in CHAL are projected to be lost in 2050 and 2070, respectively, under representative concentration pathway (RCP6.0). Climate refugia, representing areas of suitable habitat for 2070 (under the RCP6.0) in CHAL, are projected to cover 958 km2 (80.37% of the current range), 1052 km2 (43.73% of the current range), and 2375 km2 (58.21% of the current range) for one‐horned rhinoceros, Himalayan red panda, and snow leopard, respectively. Among the land cover attributes in CHAL, snow cover is predicted to decrease by 24% in 2070. Our findings indicate that species inhabiting alpine and temperate environments are more susceptible to human‐induced climate change than those inhabiting lowland tropical areas. These findings will help to implement the adaptation actions that are crucial to addressing future conservation challenges arising from climate and land cover change.

Impact of climate and land cover changes on the potential distribution of four endemic salamanders in Mexico

Climate and land use change are anticipated to alter the distribution of wildlife, due to their impact on the quantity and quality of forage availability, water cycle, as well as competition for key resources. Using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we sought to predict changes in the distribution of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) in response to climatic and land cover change in Africa. We found that African elephant distribution is driven predominantly by changes in temperature followed by changes in precipitation and land cover. Our results show that 17.1% of the continent shows high suitability for L. africana under the current climatic conditions, while 56.6% is unsuitable under similar climatic conditions. The modelled current suitability shows that high and moderately suitable areas for L. africana are predicted to occur in the eastern, southern and part of western Africa. In 2050, unsuitable area for elephants under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is projected to increase by 12.7% and 14.1%, respectively. In contrast, the highly suitable area for L. africana is projected to decrease by 51.3% and 67.6% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Compared to the current climatic conditions, in 2070 highly suitable areas for L. africana are projected to decrease by 74.5% and 85.9% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Climate change and land cover change are expected to worsen and become one of the major drivers for the loss of several wildlife species like the African elephant due to their impact on availability of water and forage. Therefore, conservation and management of elephant populations under global change calls for carefully designed migratory corridors and conservation of trans-frontier landscapes to enable dispersal of the elephants and other associated species to more conducive environments.

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 中国西南地区土地覆盖情景的时空模拟 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201311042660 作者: 作者单位: 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（41271406）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2010CB950904）；资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室青年人才培养基金项目 Spatio-temporal simulation of land cover scenarios in southwestern of China Author: Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:气候植被类型的空间分布与土地覆盖类型的空间分布在时空层次上具有很好的相关性和一致性。在运用HLZ生态系统模型获得CMIP5的3种气候情景RCP26、RCP45、RCP85情景下西南地区未来90a（2011-2100年）HLZ生态系统时空分布情景数据的基础上，结合2010年土地覆盖现状数据，构建了土地覆盖情景的空间分析模型，并在此基础上，实现了西南地区未来90a土地覆盖情景的时空模拟分析。模拟结果表明：3种气候情景下，西南地区未来90a的落叶针叶林、落叶阔叶林、草地、耕地、冰雪、荒漠及裸岩石砾地等土地覆盖类型面积将呈逐渐减少趋势；常绿针叶林、常绿阔叶林、混交林、灌丛、湿地、建设用地、水体等土地覆盖类型面积则呈逐渐增加趋势。其中，湿地增加速度最快（平均每10a增加5.28%），荒漠及裸岩石砾地减少速度最快（平均每10a减少2.34%）。 Abstract:Numerous studies show that Karst area is more sensitive to influence of climate change and human activities, compared to the area in non-vulnerable condition. Therefore, quantitative simulating the land cover scenarios is important to understand the driving mechanism underlying land cover change in Karst area, and what policy should be carried out to prevent and reduce the land degradation. Especially, Karst area, as the typical ecological fragile zone, has been undertaking a series of ecological degradation, which have seriously affected the local socio-economic sustainable development. Karst area of Southwest China is one of the largest continuous Karst zone in the world, which major involves the Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Chongqing province of China. This paper aims to develop a method for simulating the scenarios of land cover in Karst area and analyze its spatial distribution change under the global climate change. A simulation method of land cover scenario was developed on the basis of analyzing the correlation of spatial distribution between HLZ (Holdridge life zone) and the land cover, and the policy of basic farmland protection. According to the climate scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85 released by CMIP5 (the Fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and the land cover data in 2010 obtained from remoting sense images. Three land cover scenarios in Southwest China are respectively simulated in the next 90 years. The results show that three scenarios of land cover change have similar spatial landscape pattern and conversion trends. A gradual decrease was found in the following types of land cover, deciduous coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, grassland, cropland, ice and snow, and desert and bare rock; The other types of land cover would experience a moderate increase, namely, evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forests, mixed forest, scrublands, wetlands, construction land, water bodies and so on. Among the land cover types mentioned above, wetlands were projected to increase with the fastest rate (an increase of 5.28% per decade on average) and construction land were projected to increase most slowly (an average increase of 0.16% per decade), while desert and bare rock were forecasted to decline with the fastest rate (a decrease of 2.34% per decade on average) and cropland were forecasted to decrease most slowly (an average decrease of 0.26% per decade). It is worth noting that differences between land cover scenarios of 3 different climate scenarios lay in two aspects. On one hand, land cover scenario of every land cover type under RCP85 scenario stayed in top position in terms of the decadal change rate, especially, ice and snow decreasing far more than the other two scenarios. The next one was RCP45 scenario, land cover scenario of every land cover type under RCP26 scenario rank the last in terms of per decade change rate. On the other hand, each land cover type keep the same change trend under RCP85 and RCP45 scenarios during the following 90 years, while land cover scenario simulated with RCP26 data turn out to change in the opposite trend after 2070. Furthermore, the simulated result identify the method of land cover scenarios can avoid the difficulties which come from the complexity and uncertainty of mechanism analysis in land cover modeling, and suitable to simulate the land cover change on a regional scale. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Context Human-induced changes in climate and land cover have altered the distribution of fauna around the globe. Some reptiles have been found to be vulnerable to these changes; therefore, studies to identify the impact of the changes on other groups of reptiles are necessary. Aims We aimed to study the impact of climate and land cover change on the yellow monitor (Varanus flavescens) in Nepal. We also aimed to identify the current distribution range and predict the potential distribution under multiple climate change, corresponding land cover change, and dispersion scenarios in the near- and mid-future. Methods We used available presence locations with a candidate set of the least-correlated environmental variables and an Ensemble of Small Models (ESM), a Species Distribution Model (SDM) approach suitable for species with small sample size. Additionally, dispersal scenarios of 1 km, 5 km, and 10 km were added to the model to determine the future distribution under the dispersal scenarios. Key results We found soil particle size, distance to forest, precipitation of wettest quarter, bulk density, and elevation were the five most important variables contributing to the distribution of the species. The Terai lowland and wide valleys in Outer Himalayas are currently suitable but are expected to experience a substantial decrease under most future climate projections and dispersal scenarios. Conclusions The distribution is mostly dependent on soil-related variables; however, climatic variables might have a greater impact on future suitability. Implications Limiting emissions contributing to climatic changes, conserving the soil outside the protected areas, and the potential areas where the species will not experience habitat loss might contribute to the conservation of the species.

Land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) have often been highlighted as crucial regarding climate change, both for mitigation (e.g. afforestation) and adaptation (e.g. irrigation). In order to understand this role we present fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) simulations using external forcing conditions from the SSP1-1.9 scenario, except for land cover and land management scenarios that follow differing trajectories. First we conduct a short 30-year historical simulation (histCTL) and a future (years 2015-2100) simulation under SSP1-1.9 conditions but with present day land cover kept at constant end of 2014 conditions (futCTL). These allow us to isolate climate changes in response to the SSP1-19 forcing, but in the absence of land cover changes. Secondly we conduct two simulations under SSP1-1.9 forcing, but with land cover and land management following two different trajectories. These trajectories are derived from the scenarios presented in Humpenöder et al. (2022) and represent two strongly diverging worlds with regard to socio-economic development, environmental protection, and land-based mitigation: (i) the future sustainability scenario (futSust) in which the land sector experiences sustainable development and application of mitigation strategies (such as greenhouse gas emission pricing) in all countries, (ii) the future inequality scenario (futIneq) in which these developments mostly happen in OECD countries, with the rest of the world continuing on current trends (including massive tropical deforestation). Each of these simulations have been run with three different ESMs (CESM, MPI-ESM and EC-EARTH) in order to identify how robust these results are over different ESMs.The results of these simulations can be used to increase our understanding of the role of land cover scenarios within a low-warming future as prescribed by the Paris agreement. We can compare the effects of all other forcings (futCTL- histCTL; CO2, aerosols etc.) to the effects of land cover changes in the different scenarios (futSust – futCTL or futIneq-futCTL) as well as to the difference between the future sustainability and the inequality narratives (futSust-futIneq). These results will be analysed for temperature and moisture fluxes, mainly focusing on warm and dry extremes and how land cover scenarios affect these. ReferencesHumpenöder, F., Popp, A., Schleussner, C. F., Orlov, A., Windisch, M. G., Menke, I., Pongratz, J., Havermann, F., Thiery, W., Luo, F., Jeetze, P. V., Philipp Dietrich, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Weindl, I. & Lejeune, Q. (2022). Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications, 13(1), 1-15.

The combined effects of climate and land cover changes influence hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner depending on the nature and severity of the changes. As such, estimating the impacts of these environmental changes on hydrologic responses is crucial for planning water resources management. However, such a comprehensive study is missing in most basins of Ethiopia, particularly in the Dhidhessa River basin (DRB). The aim of this study is, therefore, to quantify the combined and separate impacts of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrologic variables for the DRB. The Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) model and statistical techniques were integrated for this study. Quantifying the separate and combined effects of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrologic responses at a local scale, and determining the relative contribution of the changes are the strength of this study. The result indicated better performance of the SWAT model in simulating water balance components for the DRB. Significant changes in hydrologic responses were observed in response to the land cover changes, and the increasing trends of temperature and rainfall observed during the last 30 years in DRB. The result showed increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET), streamflow, and surface runoff while decreasing groundwater recharge. Surface runoff was more affected by land cover change than by climate change, whereas streamflow and AET were more affected by climate change than land cover change during the last 30 years in the basin. The combined effects of land cover and climate changes played an offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET. Overall, the simulated hydrologic responses will have negative effects on water resource availability and agricultural production in the basin and the surroundings. Therefore, implementing integrated watershed management strategies, such as soil and water conservation and afforestation, could minimize the negative impact.

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news and update ISSN 1948-6596 thesis abstract Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of fresh- water fishes in French streams and uncertainty of projections Laetitia Buisson PhD, Laboratoire Evolution et Diversite Biologique, Universite Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, and La- boratoire d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle, ENSAT, Castanet-Tolosan, France Current address: Laboratoire Evolution et Diversite Biologique, Universite Paul Sabatier, Tou- louse, France; E-mail: buisson@cict.fr; http://www.edb.ups-tlse.fr/ Climate change and its impact on biodiversity are receiving increasing attention from scientists and people managing natural ecosystems. Recent modifications of climate have induced diverse functional (e.g. phenology, physiology) and struc- tural (e.g. species distribution shifts, range con- traction, local extinctions) responses among or- ganisms (Walther et al. 2002). Given the projec- tions of future climate change, these responses are expected to continue throughout the 21st century and climate change could thus have major consequences on species and assemblages. A common approach to project the potential im- pacts of environmental changes on the distribu- tion of biodiversity is the use of species distribu- tion models (SDM) (e.g. Thuiller 2003). These cor- relative models first relate the present-day spe- cies distribution to a set of climate and other envi- ronmental descriptors. Then, the application of scenarios of future climate changes provides pre- dictions of the habitats potentially suitable in the future for the species. In spite of their widespread use, a growing concern has emerged for the vari- ability in the predicted impacts by such models due to the methodological decisions taken during the modeling process (Thuiller 2004). Improve- ments in the accuracy of predictions combined with an estimation of the uncertainty inherent to those predictions are thus urgently needed. Among freshwater ecosystems, stream fish have no physiological ability to regulate their body temperature and could therefore be very sensitive to climate warming, especially cold-stenotherm fish such as salmonid species. Stream fish also have to cope with hydrological variability of streams and strong anthropogenic pressures (e.g. habitat loss, stream fragmentation). In addition, they have limited dispersal ability within hydro- graphic networks in which they currently live. Yet their response to current and future climate change has been poorly documented and few studies have used SDM to assess the potential consequences of the on-going climate change on freshwater fish species distribution, especially in European streams. In that context, the aim of my PhD thesis was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on fish in French streams, mainly on spe- cies distribution and assemblages’ structure. I used fish data provided by the Office National de l’Eau et des Milieux Aquatiques (ONEMA), the in- stitution in charge of the protection and conserva- tion of freshwater ecosystems in France. These data were combined with climate and environ- mental descriptors through the use of correlative statistical modeling. As my goal was to provide reliable estimates of the future impacts of climate change on stream fish, I have considered recent criticisms (e.g. choice of statistical method, pure bioclimatic models) of species distribution models by justifying each step and optimizing the use of such models. In all, five papers are derived from my PhD work. The first three papers set the bases for the building of the models by considering the uncertainty in predictions, while the latest two assess the impacts of climate change on stream fish species and assemblages. In stream fish ecology, many studies have been conducted to identify the environmental drivers structuring fish assemblages (reviewed in Matthews 1998). It appears that fish species distri- bution and structure of fish assemblages are de- termined by a complex interplay of biotic, abiotic and spatial factors (Jackson et al. 2001). Disentan- © 2009 the authors; journal compilation © 2009 The International Biogeography Society — frontiers of biogeography 1.2, 2009

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. The Upper Ganges (UG) river basin in northern India experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Studies have shown evidence of strong coupling between the land surface (soil moisture) and atmosphere (precipitation) in northern India, which means that regional climate variations and changes in land use/cover could influence the temporal dynamics of land-atmosphere interactions. <br><br> This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change are affecting the hydrological response of the UG river basin. Two different sets of modelling experiments were run using the JULES Land Surface Model and covering the period 2000–2035: In the first set, climate change is taken into account, as JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), whilst land use was kept constant at year 2010. In the second set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as apart from the CMIP5 model outputs, JULES was also forced with a time-series of 15 future land-use scenarios, based on Landsat satellite imagery and Markov chain simulation. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. <br><br> Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030–2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow [Q<sub>5</sub>] is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario [RCP8.5]. The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. <br><br> Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change from a water-demand perspective, highlighting that that demand thresholds in the UG region are projected to be exceeded in the future winter months (Dec–Feb).

Actinodaphne areolata Blume is an endemic plant in Indonesia. The minimal distribution makes this species threatened and even listed as endangered species by IUCN. Therefore, analyses of climate change and land cover change were conducted to predict the future species distribution and to determine conservation action for this species. The plant occurrences from GBIF online database and Naturalis herbarium data were collected and validated. The environmental variables used in the model were topography, vegetation, soil, and climate. All environmental variables were selected with the multicollinearity test. Prediction of future land cover using cellular automata and the future species distribution for 2050 (2041-2060) and 2070 (2061-2080) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy (maxent). The resulting habitat suitability prediction model has an AUC value of more than 0.92, indicating an adequate model for predicting habitat suitability for A.areolate. Environmental variables that affect the presence of A. areolata are temperature seasonality (bio4) and land cover. Land cover and climate change were estimated to impact plant distribution in the future negatively. The suitable habitat for A. areolata will gradually decrease throughout the year, so it is necessary to designate priority areas for conserving this species.

Landscape functional connectivity for butterflies under different scenarios of land-use, land-cover, and climate change in Australia

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.