Assessing the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse gas emission inventories:: a case study for Austria

Abstract

The uncertainty associated with the Austrian Greenhouse Gas emission inventory has been determined for the gases CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O and for the overall greenhouse potential. Expert interviews were conducted to obtain uncertainties in inventory input data. Based on these interviews, error distributions were developed and combined using Monte-Carlo analysis. Results for all sources and gases combined indicate an overall uncertainty between 10.5% and 12% depending on the base year considered. Excluding emissions and the uncertainty associated with forest sinks and natural sources, overall uncertainty decreased by 2% points. The mere ‘random error’, which is considered the level of uncertainty to be achieved with the current methodology (excluding all systematic errors) is 5% points lower. Detailed evaluation shows that much of the overall uncertainty derives from a lack of understanding the processes associated with N 2O emissions from soils. Other important contributors to GHG emission uncertainties are CH 4 from landfills and forests as CO 2 sinks. The uncertainty of the trend has been determined at near 5% points, with solid waste production (landfills) having the strongest contribution. Theoretical considerations do not permit a decrease of the trend uncertainty—even when forest sinks are not considered—below 3% points.