Abstract
SUMMARY This article proposes a method to assess the risk of blackouts in the power system, including modern devices such as HVDC and FACTS devices. In this respect, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was used to analyze the risk of blackouts. The linearized load flow with the model of HVDC links and FACTS devices was used. The model of cascading events and hidden failure of the protection system were also considered. The obtained results of the MCS were studied by using the complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) and the probability distribution function (PDF) of the lost load data. The CCDF of the lost load data was directly calculated from the lost load data, and the Gaussian mixture method (GMM) was applied to estimate the PDF of the lost load data. The effect of different controlling strategies of HVDC links and FACTS devices on the risk of blackout was studied more in-depth. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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