Abstract
The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is one of the most widely used indices for characterizing and monitoring drought in various regions. SPI's applicability has regional and time‐scale constraints when it observes in several homogeneous climatic regions with similar characteristics. It also does not provide sufficient knowledge about precipitation deficits and the spatiotemporal evolution of drought. Therefore, a new method, the regional spatially agglomerative continuous drought probability monitoring system (RSACDPMS), is proposed to obtain spatiotemporal information and monitor drought characteristics more expeditiously. The proposed framework uses spatially agglomerative precipitation (SAP) and copulas’ functions to continuously monitor the drought probability in the homogenous region. The RSACDPMS is validated in the region of the Northern area of Pakistan. The outcomes of the current study provide a better quantitative way to obtain appropriate information about precipitation deficits and the spatiotemporal evolution of drought.
Highlights
Drought is a creeping phenomenon that gradually spreads in an area over a period and may continue for a long period [1,2,3,4]
The present study proposed RSACDPMS that calculates the regional thresholds. is calculation is based on the following steps. e precipitation thresholds for four drought severity conditions (“extremely dry, severely dry, median dry, and normal dry”) are calculated. ese severity conditions are defined in the literature and are classified according to literature [36]. e RSACDPMS can be used for other drought severity conditions
The dependency between precipitation of the season’s total and the observed precipitation at individual months is addressed by using bivariate copula-based models
Summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon that gradually spreads in an area over a period and may continue for a long period [1,2,3,4]. E SPI uses precipitation data to assess meteorological drought on various time scales It prevails in developing drought monitoring and mitigating policies [24, 25]. E SPI has been frequently considered to identify or envisage drought events; standardized numerical values of the index become challenging when associated with the precipitation deficits and the temporal evolution of droughts [28, 29]. E research is needed to develop techniques that explicitly describe the dependence structure to overcome these issues In this regard, the concept of copula-based modeling was introduced that has some flexibility. Copulas’ functions were used to evaluate varying characteristics of the drought events (e.g., duration, magnitude, intensity, and spatial distribution) In climatic regions such as the Northern area of Pakistan, the major source of drought events is insufficient precipitation during the rainy season. E proposed framework is validated on six meteorological stations in the Northern area of Pakistan. e study provides a better quantitative way of analyzing drought at the regional level
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