Abstract
Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.
Highlights
Mosquito monitoring was carried out fortnightly from May to October 2015 in the provinces of Belluno and Trento, Italy (Figure 1)
We provide estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) of Zika virus (ZIKV) in northern Italy, based on estimates of the mosquito abundance from entomological surveillance data
Aedes albopictus mosquitoes were collected using 54 Biogents Sentinel traps (Biogents AG, Regensburg, Germany, hereafter abbreviated as BG) baited with BG lures and CO2 from dry ice, running for 24 hours and placed by entomologists at selected locations in nine municipalities (Figure 1) at altitudes ranging from 74 m a.s.l. to 650 m a.s.l and geographical coordinates between 10°49'04.9”E and 12°12'54.2”E longitude and 45°53'26.9”N and 46°09'59.4”N latitude
Summary
Shaded areas represent the uncertainty of the value for the biting rate k. Parameter description k Number of bites to humans per mosquito per day Vector susceptibility to infections: probability of transmission per bite from infectious hosts to susceptible mosquitoes pH. Human susceptibility to infections: probability of transmission per bite from infectious mosquitoes to susceptible hosts g Average infectious period in humans
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