Abstract
Natural gas covers more than 20% of Europe’s primary energy demand. A potential disruption could lead to supply shortages with severe consequences for the European economy and society. History shows that such a vast and complex network system is prone to exogenous and endogenous disruptions. A dedicated large-scale dataset of the European natural gas network from publicly available information sources is assembled first. The spatial coverage, completeness and resolution allows analyzing the behavior of this geospatial infrastructure network (including consumption) and its components under likely disruptive events, such as earthquakes, and/or technical failures. Using the developed system state simulation engine, the disruption impact is mapped. The results show that storage facilities cannot in all cases compensate for a pipeline disruption. Moreover, critical pipelines, such as the Transitgas pipeline crossing the Alps and the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline bringing natural gas from Northern Africa, are identified. To analyze the pipelines with high impact on the system performance, a detailed scenario analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation resulting in supply grade mapping is conducted and presented for the case of Italy. Overall, it can be concluded that locations with a dead-end, sole supply, and without storage facility nearby, are remarkably exposed to natural gas supply losses.
Highlights
Pipelines throughout Europe transport large volumes of natural gas, covering more than 20%of Europe’s primary energy demand [1]
The disruption impact mapping (DIM) facing a single pipeline failure is discussed for six pipelines with a system performance loss (∆Fmax,i, see Equation (27)) higher than 1% (∼4.5 109 m3 /year)
This study illustrates the construction of a complex regional natural gas network model from open-source data and the analysis of potential pipeline disruptions considering seismic and technical hazards
Summary
Pipelines throughout Europe transport large volumes of natural gas, covering more than 20%of Europe’s primary energy demand [1]. Uninterrupted gas supply is essential for use in private households and industries, as well as for electricity generation [2]. The current, complex natural gas supply system grew organically over the past few decades to an impressive intercontinental network following political and economic developments. Planning and large investments are made with long-term contracts locking investors’ capital for decades, leading to a rather static supply system [3]. Despite the importance of the resource, the well-developed infrastructure and the large investments, history shows that unforeseen events can damage the system and lead to supply shortages [4]. The accident caused, besides more than 21 injuries, a disruption leading to the declaration of a state of emergency by Italy, because of threats to its natural gas supplies [5]
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